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Interview with Hernan
(August 25, 2002) How
he picks stocks: He
picks stocks by looking at their patterns and trend
lines. He also uses foreign broker activities to judge whether there is
accumulation or distribution in a stock. He
says, "...napupuna
ko kasi sa mga investors, gusto nila palagi merong trades. Hindi naman
kasi pinipilit yan." He
also says, "...if
you’re trading the US market, stocks driven up by emotions are good
stocks to short". His
views about portfolio management: "Unlike
other traders, I don’t allocate a certain amount of funds to one stock
or a percentage in the portfolio. I’m not after capital preservation,
I’m more focused on capital appreciation. I think that people whose
outlook is towards capital preservation, have a defensive bias and will
always find themselves in hesitation."
"I sell my stocks in such a way that I have
enough to recover quickly my capital. In this way, if ever the prices go
down, it’s only the profit which is affected." Best
trade: He was able to average up BW 17 times from P5.00 to
P11.00 using different
brokers trading back on its glorious days. He sold everything at P13.00. Worst
trades: A lot. And they are from A to Z (laughs). There is one instance though that he remembers when
he bought P500,000.00 worth of ISM, when he should have bought only
P50,000 worth. The stock went against his position and he ended up
losing more than P100,000.00 in the process. Stock
recommendations: "SLC's
NYSE Chart looks like a breakout in the making. After closing $18.30
today (8/23/02), the stock is in contention for a sharp run up,
potential resistance is at mid $19s - near $20. Potential target at mid
21 levels." "The
Oil index is base building sa low 130s and looks like is setting up for
a nice recovery. I think may play ang oil stock by year-end or by early
next year." "At current prices (August 23 closing) PLDT , FPH and BPC are
potential candidates for a recovery." Market
forecasts: "Presently,
there is a good buying opportunity as the Phisix is in a level where
good support is present as the market nears the 1080 level. I expect
emotions to build up and pathetic trading to follow. This is the level
when everyone else is expecting breakdown. If that happens, we might see
a slight sell-off in the index. I’m not expecting much for the volume
to go higher and it will be a slow build up for the sell volume. This
may be seen by many that the Phisix is headed for a 3-digit retest. I
don’t think it will be a long drop back to such, maximum would be at
1040. I’m not a contrarian, but I’m expecting the market to do a
double bottom and the levels 1040-1090 might give us an opportunity to
position for a nice recovery. The market is always right, and this crap
is useless if the 1040 level is broken." "The
Nasdaq is holding support at current level but if these levels break, it
may retest the previous low at 1200. "The
Dow is currently testing support with its last line of defense at 8400.
If at one point the Dow manages to test 8400 and holds, I think its
going to be a nice rally back to 10500" Final
word of advice: "Stock
market investing is not for the faint of heart. Every investor must
learn to respect the market. If the market goes against your direction,
don't let it widen. Don't justify a fault and be emotionally mature. Buy
high, sell higher. Short low, cover lower." Spyfrat’s
Call: http://www.geocities.com/spyfrat/ Spyfrat's
email: hernan@iloilo.net |
