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Interview with Hernan (August 25, 2002)

How he picks stocks:


He picks stocks by looking at their patterns and trend lines. He also uses foreign broker activities to judge whether there is accumulation or distribution in a stock.


He says, "...napupuna ko kasi sa mga investors, gusto nila palagi merong trades. Hindi naman kasi pinipilit yan."


He also says, "...if youíre trading the US market, stocks driven up by emotions are good stocks to short".


His views about portfolio management:


"Unlike other traders, I donít allocate a certain amount of funds to one stock or a percentage in the portfolio. Iím not after capital preservation, Iím more focused on capital appreciation. I think that people whose outlook is towards capital preservation, have a defensive bias and will always find themselves in hesitation."


"I sell my stocks in such a way that I have enough to recover quickly my capital. In this way, if ever the prices go down, itís only the profit which is affected."


Best trade:


He was able to average up BW 17 times from P5.00 to P11.00 using different brokers trading back on its glorious days. He sold everything at P13.00.


Worst trades:


A lot. And they are from A to Z (laughs). 


There is one instance though that he remembers when he bought P500,000.00 worth of ISM, when he should have bought only P50,000 worth. The stock went against his position and he ended up losing more than P100,000.00 in the process. 


Stock recommendations:


"SLC's NYSE Chart looks like a breakout in the making. After closing $18.30 today (8/23/02), the stock is in contention for a sharp run up, potential resistance is at mid $19s - near $20. Potential target at mid 21 levels."


"The Oil index is base building sa low 130s and looks like is setting up for a nice recovery. I think may play ang oil stock by year-end or by early next year."


"At current prices (August 23 closing) PLDT , FPH and BPC are potential candidates for a recovery."


Market forecasts:


"Presently, there is a good buying opportunity as the Phisix is in a level where good support is present as the market nears the 1080 level. I expect emotions to build up and pathetic trading to follow. This is the level when everyone else is expecting breakdown. If that happens, we might see a slight sell-off in the index. Iím not expecting much for the volume to go higher and it will be a slow build up for the sell volume. This may be seen by many that the Phisix is headed for a 3-digit retest. I donít think it will be a long drop back to such, maximum would be at 1040. Iím not a contrarian, but Iím expecting the market to do a double bottom and the levels 1040-1090 might give us an opportunity to position for a nice recovery. The market is always right, and this crap is useless if the 1040 level is broken."


"The Nasdaq is holding support at current level but if these levels break, it may retest the previous low at 1200.


"The Dow is currently testing support with its last line of defense at 8400. If at one point the Dow manages to test 8400 and holds, I think its going to be a nice rally back to 10500"


Final word of advice:


"Stock market investing is not for the faint of heart. Every investor must learn to respect the market. If the market goes against your direction, don't let it widen. Don't justify a fault and be emotionally mature. Buy high, sell higher. Short low, cover lower."


Spyfratís Call: http://www.geocities.com/spyfrat/

Spyfrat's email: hernan@iloilo.net




 © 2006. Miko S. Sayo. All Rights Reserved.