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The Phisix weekly chart

updated every Mondays, last update - 8/25/2008

 

Bearish Evening Star Pattern Confirms Peak at 2778

charts are courtesy of Metastock

 

The PSEi formed a black candle last week, thus, completing a bearishly-looking evening star pattern. Does this mean that the market is going to drop back down towards its previous low at 2289? While that certainly is possible, I don't think that that will easily happen without even a fight from the bulls. Those who missed the upswing of the market in the last couple of weeks will probably be looking to buy into the market if prices drop back down. You can see in the chart above the market's previous resistance line as highlighted by the blue dotted upper trendline. If the market is really strong, prices should be able to bounce off this resistance line and convert the line into an area of support. That level is currently at the 2500 level. If the market will be able to do that, then, prices might make another run-up towards its previous high at 2778. For the meantime, I would expect bears to continue to threaten the bulls by continuing to drop lower. If, on the other hand, the market continues to drop lower than 2500, I'm afraid the market may continue trending down and eventually dive towards the psychological 2000 level. A more bullish and unexpected scenario is for the market to already hold above current levels and start climbing back towards the 2778 level. If that happens, that would mean that the market is indeed very strong and prices may actually climb up towards the 3000 level soon. I wouldn't want to make a prediction at this point because the market is really quite ambiguous at this stage, which is why I am simply pointing out the possible scenarios that might happen. The long-term trend of the market is still up, the medium-term trend is still down, the short-term trend is up, while the very short-term trend of the market is currently down. Obviously, with this kind of an atmosphere, prices will most likely consolidate within a range for now as half of population are probably bullish and the other half are probably bearish.

 

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