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Chart of the Week - Oct 29, 2007

Trans-Asia Oil & Energy Dev't Corp. (TA)

TA Weekly Chart - Trading at a new All-time High

charts are courtesy of Metastock

 

TA Daily Chart - Parabolic Spike to the Upside 

charts are courtesy of Metastock

 

Legend: blue lines - range for Tsupiteros

            dotted blue lines - range for Position Traders

            red lines - important trend lines

 

Short-term Traders/Tsupiteros: Medium-term/Position Traders:
Support - 1.90 / below 2.10 (Stop for long positions) Support - 1.64
Resistance - 2.30 / 2.50 / 2.75 Resistance - 3.00 / unknown
Trend - Up Trend - Up

On rumors that Trans-Asia Oil & Energy Dev't Corp. (TA) has struck oil in one of its service contracts and on news that the price of Oil has already hit $92.00 in the world market, the stock suddenly rocketed to the upside last Friday and climbed up from 1.54 to 2.30, before closing the day at 2.20 with 62 million shares changing hands.

I'm not so sure if its current price is at an all-time high right now but, as far as my data goes, which is from 1988, it is now at an all-time high. You can see in the weekly chart above that the stock has been trading in a sideways to upward trend with its support at around 1.00 and its resistance at around 2.00. With the stock climbing up to as high as 2.30 and closing the week at 2.20, does this mean that the stock is going to climb a lot higher than where it is right now? That certainly is what the weekly chart is telling us right now. In fact, if we base our upside target on the consolidation between 1.00 to 2.00, minimum target to the upside should already be the 3.00 level. I will only be concerned that this target will not be met if in case the stock drops back down below 1.64.

In the short-term or in the daily chart, you can see that the stock slowly built momentum in the last couple of days leading up to last Friday's spectacular run-up to 2.30. While prices did form a long white candle and did close near its highs for the day, I am a bit concerned though that the stock was not able to close the day at its ceiling price. If the stock was really, really strong, once it reached the ceiling price, it would normally stay there and just trade at that level for the remainder of the day. That scenario would almost certainly indicate that prices are going to go a lot higher the following day. As with TA, the stock did trade at the ceiling price (2.30), dropped back down to around 2.10 but was no longer able to head back up to its ceiling price. This tells me that there is now significant resistances at around the 2.30 level. While it may continue to head higher by Tuesday, I'll be damned if the stock is still able to travel at the same pace as what it did last Friday.

Tsupiteros, who currently have positions in this stock, are recommended to just hold and use a break below 2.10 as your mental stop. Those who do not mind using counter-trend trading strategies may want to take profits as high as possible from this point on. Watch the behavior of the stock near the 2.30 level. If it fails to take out that level come Tuesday and starts to head back down, the bullish camp ought to be concerned already. I would start to become more aggressive selling down the stock if prices break below 2.10. If, on the other hand, the stock is able to break above 2.30, Tsupiteros may want to just hold but use a break below 2.30 as your mental stop. If you've notice, the stops I've recommended are pretty tight and may lead you to get whipsawed in your trading. The reason for the tight stops is because I feel that the stock is already quite overstretched already for the short-term and its uptrend may no longer be sustained for a long-time with having some sort of correction or consolidation first. Congratulations to all those who were able to ride this baby!

 

Notes:

Short-term Traders/Tsupiteros vs. Medium-term/Position Traders: Recommendation for short-term traders or Tsupiteros are meant to be used by traders whose holding period are limited to one day to two weeks. Medium-term or position traders are meant to be used by traders whose holding period are two weeks to three months. Long-term investors whose holding period is more than three months should not follow these recommendations.

 

 

 © 2006. Miko S. Sayo. All Rights Reserved.