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Chart of the Week - Oct 29, 2007
Trans-Asia Oil & Energy Dev't Corp. (TA)
TA
Weekly Chart -
Trading at a new All-time High

charts are courtesy of Metastock
TA Daily Chart -
Parabolic Spike to the Upside

charts are courtesy of Metastock
Legend:
blue lines - range for Tsupiteros
dotted blue lines
- range for Position Traders
red lines - important trend lines
| Short-term Traders/Tsupiteros: |
Medium-term/Position Traders: |
| Support - 1.90 /
below 2.10 (Stop for long positions) |
Support - 1.64 |
| Resistance -
2.30 / 2.50 / 2.75 |
Resistance - 3.00 / unknown |
| Trend - Up |
Trend - Up |
On rumors
that Trans-Asia Oil & Energy Dev't Corp. (TA) has struck oil in one of
its service contracts and on news that the price of Oil has already hit
$92.00 in the world market, the stock suddenly rocketed to the upside
last Friday and climbed up from 1.54 to 2.30, before closing the day at
2.20 with 62 million shares changing hands.
I'm not so
sure if its current price is at an all-time high right now but, as far
as my data goes, which is from 1988, it is now at an all-time high. You
can see in the weekly chart above that the stock has been trading in a
sideways to upward trend with its support at around 1.00 and its
resistance at around 2.00. With the stock climbing up to as high as 2.30
and closing the week at 2.20, does this mean that the stock is going to
climb a lot higher than where it is right now? That certainly is what
the weekly chart is telling us right now. In fact, if we base our upside
target on the consolidation between 1.00 to 2.00, minimum target to the
upside should already be the 3.00 level. I will only be concerned that
this target will not be met if in case the stock drops back down below
1.64.
In the
short-term or in the daily chart, you can see that the stock slowly
built momentum in the last couple of days leading up to last Friday's
spectacular run-up to 2.30. While prices did form a long white candle
and did close near its highs for the day, I am a bit concerned though
that the stock was not able to close the day at its ceiling price. If
the stock was really, really strong, once it reached the ceiling price,
it would normally stay there and just trade at that level for the
remainder of the day. That scenario would almost certainly indicate that
prices are going to go a lot higher the following day. As with TA, the
stock did trade at the ceiling price (2.30), dropped back down to around
2.10 but was no longer able to head back up to its ceiling price. This
tells me that there is now significant resistances at around the 2.30
level. While it may continue to head higher by Tuesday, I'll be damned
if the stock is still able to travel at the same pace as what it did
last Friday.
Tsupiteros,
who currently have positions in this stock, are recommended to just hold
and use a break below 2.10 as your mental stop. Those who do not mind
using counter-trend trading strategies may want to take profits as high
as possible from this point on. Watch the behavior of the stock near the
2.30 level. If it fails to take out that level come Tuesday and starts
to head back down, the bullish camp ought to be concerned already. I
would start to become more aggressive selling down the stock if prices
break below 2.10. If, on the other hand, the stock is able to break
above 2.30, Tsupiteros may want to just hold but use a break below 2.30
as your mental stop. If you've notice, the stops I've recommended are
pretty tight and may lead you to get whipsawed in your trading. The
reason for the tight stops is because I feel that the stock is already
quite overstretched already for the short-term and its uptrend may no
longer be sustained for a long-time with having some sort of correction
or consolidation first. Congratulations to all those who were able to
ride this baby!
Notes:
Short-term
Traders/Tsupiteros vs. Medium-term/Position Traders: Recommendation
for short-term traders or Tsupiteros are meant to be used by traders
whose holding period are limited to one day to two weeks. Medium-term or position
traders are meant to be used by traders whose holding period are two weeks
to three months. Long-term investors whose holding period is more than
three months should not follow these recommendations.
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