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Chart of the Week - Sept 10, 2007
Pacifica, Inc. "A" Shares (PA)
PA
Monthly Chart -
Despite being Overbought, Trying to Continue Rallying

charts are courtesy of Metastock
PA Daily Chart -
Bearish Shooting Star Pattern

charts are courtesy of Metastock
Legend:
blue lines - range for Tsupiteros
dotted blue lines
- range for Position Traders
red lines - important trend lines
| Short-term Traders/Tsupiteros: |
Medium-term/Position Traders: |
| Support - 0.115
/ Below 0.16 (Stop for long positions) |
Support - 0.085 |
| Resistance -
0.215 |
Resistance - 0.35 |
| Trend -
Sideways to Up |
Trend - Up |
Pacifica,
Inc. (PA) was certainly the highlight of the week as prices suddenly
resumed trading last Tuesday after being suspended for around one a half
months. For those who have not been following this one, the stock was
suspended last July 16, 2007 because the PSE wanted to get more
information on what was happening with the company. Later on, it was
disclosed that Strategic Alliance Dev't Corp, a company that had a 33%
stake in PA, sold its shares to Micro Tech Capital, Inc., which was a
company owned by Mr. Michael Romero. It was also disclosed later on that
the company's primary purpose was to be converted into a mining company.
There was also an issue about the company's change of par from 0.005 to
1.00 a couple of years ago, which the company was not able to implement
then. In a recent stockholders' meeting, the company decided to revert
back to its original par of 0.005.
With the
stock getting suspended at the height of the market, naturally, the
stock dropped immediately after it resumed trading last Tuesday and
closed the day at its floor price. It broke below its support at 0.115
and traded to as low as 0.085. Looking like the stock was already headed
for a downward spiral, it slowly started to climb back up and one day
after dropping to 0.085, the stock unbelievably hit the ceiling price
once again at 0.165. Last Friday, the stock traded up to as high as
0.215 but closed the day unchanged at 0.165. What can we expect of PA in
the coming days ahead?
This is one
of the most volatile stock that I've ever encountered in my entire
trading career. With the stock having an average true range of about
0.05, it can easily hit the floor price or the ceiling price on an
average day. With this kind of volatility, it is almost useless to talk
about the long-term trend of the stock since I don't think anyone would
dare use a buy and hold strategy for this one since you can easily get
wiped out in just a couple days of trading if your entry is not right.
But just for trivial purposes, the long-term trend of the stock is still
definitely up but is currently trading at overbought conditions.
However, since the stock is still definitely trending in the long-term,
it is difficult to say whether the stock is now forming a peak at
current prices or is merely resting before it continues to move higher.
With this
kind of volatility, Tsupiteros will certainly want to trade this one on
a short-term basis only. I've written above that when the stock broke
below the 0.115 level, the stock broke down and, expectedly, the stock
ought to have continued to trend downwards. With the stock climbing
above that 0.115 level once again, the stock has now formed a bear-trap,
which indicates very strong support at the 0.085 to 0.115 area. With the
bear-trap in place, the stock started to trend back up and even broke
above its previous high at 0.17. While it did form a higher high at
0.215, it failed to close above the previous high at 0.17. It also
failed to close above its opening price at 0.18. These two facts could
be indicative that the stock will now form a bull-trap instead. I would
look at the low at the 0.16 level to tell me if a bull-trap is now in
place. If so, I wouldn't be surprised if prices to traded back down
towards the lower part of its range at around 0.115 in just one or two
days. Of course, if, on the other hand, the price fails to break below
the 0.16 level, I would expect the uptrend to continue and prices may
well be on its way towards its next medium-term resistance at 0.35.
Tsupiteros,
who currently have long positions in this stock, are recommended to use
a break below 0.16 as your mental stop. Those who would like to buy this
stock are recommended to do so either if prices are able to hold above
the 0.16 level, or, if prices drop back down near the 0.085 to 0.10
levels.
Be careful.
This certainly isn't for the conservative Tsupitero. If you want to
trade this stock, you need to either reduce your position-sizing
significantly in order for you to bear the volatility, or, you need to
play the stock with a very short time-frame. While using a buy and hold
strategy with this one may certainly give you a possible windfall profit
on your portfolio if you timed it correctly, the stock also has the
potential to wipe out all your gains in the market for the whole year if
you don't time it right.
Notes:
Short-term
Traders/Tsupiteros vs. Medium-term/Position Traders: Recommendation
for short-term traders or Tsupiteros are meant to be used by traders
whose holding period are limited to one day to two weeks. Medium-term or position
traders are meant to be used by traders whose holding period are two weeks
to three months. Long-term investors whose holding period is more than
three months should not follow these recommendations.
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