Chart of the Week - IPVG Corporation

Short-term Traders/Tsupiteros:	Medium-term/Position Traders:
Support - 8.40 / below 9.00 (Stop for long positions)	Support - 7.20 to 7.60
Resistance - 9.50 to 9.60	Resistance - 10.00 / unknown
Trend - Up	Trend - Up

IPVG was one of the highlights of the market last week as the stock was highly recommended by my friend, Mr. Ron Nathan, in his column in the Philippine Daily Inquirer last Wednesday. With his comments that this stock could be the "next Paxys" in the making, the stock jumped from 7.00 to 9.00 in two days. However, by the time the public got hold of the news last Wednesday, I feel there was already limited upside left for the stock in the short-term. The long-term prospects though may be a different story altogether.

I could only show the short-term and medium-term outlook of the stock for now, as represented by its daily and weekly charts, respectively, since we only have limited data on IPVG (data only from March 2005).

The weekly chart shows that the stock is now testing its resistances at current levels. While the stock closed the week at its highs, which may indicate that it is bound to continue heading higher, I feel that any upside for now is limited. At the other end of the pendulum is its support at around 7.20 to 7.60. If you want to buy IPVG, you certainly would like to buy it near these support levels and not near where the resistances are located.

In the short-term chart above, last Wednesday, when Mr. Nathan published his article, the stock formed a bearishly looking meeting line pattern as the stock immediately gapped up to 9.00 but closed the day at its lows. At that point, I already thought the stock was bound to move lower in the short-term. But then, last Thursday, a new player came into the picture - UBS Warburg suddenly started buying the stock. If I'm not mistaken, he bought more than P50M worth of IPVG that day. Thus, the stock gapped up again at the open and closed the day up by 0.40 cents. At this point, I was already thinking that the stock could continue its run to the upside and head straight towards 10.00, if not higher. However, last Friday, while the stock continued to head higher a bit, UBS no longer bought any shares in the market and the stock again closed the day at its lows. With this kind of behavior, I would now tend to think that there is already an inability of the stock to trend higher since everytime it would make a new high, the stock would tend to drop back down. The level to watch out now in the short-term is the 9.00 level. If prices break below that level, then I would assume that prices will head back down towards its support at 8.40. But if prices hold above 9.00, expect prices to make another new high (maybe 9.50 to 9.60), then, drop back down towards 9.20.

In summary, while I do believe this stock may have the potential to be the "next Paxys" in the long-run, its current price is now at the high end of its range and may be vulnerable to profit-taking right now. Therefore, for Tsupiteros, I would recommend to take profits in this stock right now, or, use a break below 9.00 as your mental stop, and just try to buy it back lower in the next few days. For long-term traders, I would recommend to just hold.

Short-term Traders/Tsupiteros vs. Medium-term/Position Traders: Recommendation for short-term traders or Tsupiteros are meant to be used by traders whose holding period are limited to one day to two weeks. Medium-term or position traders are meant to be used by traders whose holding period are two weeks to three months. Long-term investors whose holding period is more than three months should not follow these recommendations.