Chart of the Week - Benpres Holdings Corporation

Short-term Traders/Tsupiteros:	Medium-term/Position Traders:
Support - 3.35	Support - 2.85
Resistance - 4.00	Resistance - 4.85 to 5.00
Trend - Up	Trend - Up
Recommendation - Take profits	Recommendation - Hold

Benpres Holdings Corporation (BPC) was one of the highlights of the market last week as prices catapulted from 2.85 to 4.00 in just two days' time. This upswing was on the back of several rumors circulating. One rumor was that the company was restructuring its debts with its creditors. Another rumor was that the company was finalizing its sale of Bayantel. But the most bullish rumor I heard was that Mr. Manny Pangilinan was acquiring a stake in the company. Last Friday, BPC denied having any knowledge about Mr. Manny Pangilinan purchasing shares of the company. They also disclosed last Friday that they have sold their entire stake in Rockwell to FPH. They even disclosed their earnings for the 2nd quarter. Could this already be the rumored restructuring? Could the denial of the company of having no knowledge that MVP is buying result in further speculation? Could the run-up in the last couple of days be an anticipation of good earnings in the company? So many unanswered questions when all we need to know is, where will BPC go now? Up or down? With all these news going on around the company right now, it's just almost impossible to use these news or rumors to judge where the stock is headed to from this point. Let's just see the technicals below to have a much objective assessment.

In the stock's monthly chart, the lines are very clear - 0.94 cents to the downside and 5.80 to the upside. Obviously, the stock has had a pretty good run already in the last couple of months. However, I expect prices to start hesitating as it gets closer and closer towards the 5.80 level. I don't think prices will easily break above that level.

In the stock's weekly chart, you can see the very strong uptrend that the stock is in right now. Just recently, the stock has formed another higher low at the 2.85 level and has resulted in another higher high for the stock at 4.00. While the stock is relatively high already at this point, I just can't see any weakness in this uptrend yet. I guess let's just continue to expect higher and higher prices, unless proven otherwise by the market. From this point, I expect prices to climb up towards the 4.85 to 5.00 levels. Whatever happens, prices should no longer break below the 2.85 level. If the stock suddenly break below 2.85, all bets on the long side are off.

The stock's daily chart is the one that looks a little bit bearish right now. After surging higher in the last couple of days, the stock appears to have hit a brick wall at the 4.00 level and is now dropping back down. Notice in the daily chart above that the 4.00 level is actually where the stock's resistance line is located. Short-term support of the stock is pegged at the 3.35 level. While I am not discounting the possibility that the stock would climb higher from here, I would expect prices to probably correct or consolidate for now.

So, how do we trade this stock? For Position-traders, who currently have positions in this stock, I would suggest that you just hold and use a break below the 3.00 level as your mental stop. I would no longer recommend Position-traders, who have yet to have a position in this stock, to buy it at current levels as it is already relatively high. As for Tsupiteros, I sure hope you were able to take profits as close to 4.00 as possible. Just try and buyback your positions if the stock is able to hold above the 3.35 level. Better yet, if I see the stock suddenly race back up near 4.00, I would also recommend that you immediately buyback your positions. For Tsupiteros, who still have positions in this stock, you have two options: either you just hold and use a break below the 3.35 level as your mental stop; or, try and take profits as close to 3.75 as possible. If you can't bear the stock going back down to 3.35, I would suggest that you try and sell as close to 3.75 as possible. Just remember, if the stock goes near the 4.00 level, look to buyback your positions.

Try not to think about that "MVP buying" thing. It will only cloud your judgment. The worst enemy of a trader is to have a bias. Good luck Tsupiteros!

Short-term Traders/Tsupiteros vs. Medium-term/Position Traders: Recommendation for short-term traders or Tsupiteros are meant to be used by traders whose holding period are limited to one day to two weeks. Medium-term or position traders are meant to be used by traders whose holding period are two weeks to three months. Long-term investors whose holding period is more than three months should not follow these recommendations.