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Chart of the Week - Mar 1, 2010
APC Group, Inc. (APC)
APC Monthly Chart -
Continuing to Rally from the Lows of its Range

charts are courtesy of Metastock
APC
Weekly Chart - Broke Above a Reverse Head
and Shoulders Pattern

charts are courtesy of Metastock
APC Daily Chart -
Trending Up Strongly g

charts are courtesy of Metastock
Legend:
blue lines - range for Tsupiteros
dotted blue lines
- range for Position Traders
red lines - important trend lines
| Short-term Traders/Tsupiteros: |
Medium-term/Position Traders: |
| Support -
0.46 / 0.53 |
Support -
0.37 |
| Resistance -
0.65 |
Resistance - 0.75 / 0.89 |
| Trend - Up |
Trend - Up |
| Recommendation -
Hold |
Recommendation -
Buy the dips |
APC Group,
Inc. (APC) has been on the limelight recently as prices surged from 0.36
to 0.56 in just two days time. This is on the back of news that the
Company is close to inking a deal with a still unidentified foreign
partner for the construction of a Power Plant in Northern Luzon. The
stock looks super in the chart but the challenge is to pinpoint where it
will peak in the short-term.
With regards
to its monthly chart, there's nothing really special about it except
that the stock is still rebounding off the lower part of its range of
between 0.18 to 1.28. Will it be able to reach the upper part of its
range at 1.28? That may be too early to say for now but, potentially,
yes, especially since it has already broken above its medium-term
resistance at 0.50.
The weekly
chart of the stock is where the exciting part of the analysis is as
prices have convincingly broken above its resistance at 0.47 to 0.50 and
is now trending up. Where is the short-term target of the stock? Given
that prices have broken above a bullish reverse head and shoulders
pattern, if we follow the Edwards and Magee formula, we are now looking
at a minimum of 0.59 to the upside. The weekly chart above also shows
where the strong resistances of the stock is located. These resistances
can be found where there are big volumes on the left side of the chart.
These are at 0.75 and 0.89. Can it actually reach those levels? It's not
impossible but, if ever, it will not be in a straight line as prices may
already be nearing overbought conditions in the short-term.
The
short-term trend is just awesome as prices are trending up very, very
strongly like a rocket ship. It only started moving up last Thursday and
already it is up by 55%. Obviously, this kind of a movement will not be
sustainable for very long as it is moving almost vertically already.
However, it is very, very hard, if not impossible, to say where prices
will peak in the short-term. By Monday, I expect prices to climb up near
the 0.65 level then let's see if the upward momentum can be sustained
for Tuesday.
How do we
trade this stock? For Tsupiteros, who are lucky enough to be holding a
position in this stock, I would suggest to just hold and just use a
break below the 0.53 level as your mental stop. As for those who would
like to buy this stock, I would tend to think that it may be too late to
enter it already as prices are already too high and you might just get
caught in the correction, if ever. As for Position-traders, who are
currently holding, I would also recommend just holding on to your
position and just use a break below the 0.37 level as your mental stop.
For Position-traders, who would like to buy this stock, you may want to
just wait for the correction to occur before buying. Ideally, you would
want to buy as close to 0.40 as possible but if prices continue to surge
in the next couple of days, the previous resistances of the stock at
0.50 may already become a support for the stock, thus, you may just want
to buy near that level instead.
With the way
this stock has been behaving last Friday, I would tend to think that
there is still some news that people are anticipating in this one. Maybe
the market is anticipating who its foreign partner would be? Once the
news comes out, I would expect the market to probably sell on the news
and sharp drop might occur so be careful. But, whatever happens, the
medium-term picture is definitely bright, thus, Position-traders may
treat its next correction as an opportunity to buy the stock low. For
the meantime, try not to chase the stock anymore and just let go of it
for now. For sure, there will be a second round.
Notes:
Short-term
Traders/Tsupiteros vs. Medium-term/Position Traders: Recommendation
for short-term traders or Tsupiteros are meant to be used by traders
whose holding period are limited to one day to two weeks. Medium-term or position
traders are meant to be used by traders whose holding period are two weeks
to three months. Long-term investors whose holding period is more than
three months should not follow these recommendations.
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