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Chart of the Week - Mar 1, 2010

 APC Group, Inc. (APC)

APC Monthly Chart - Continuing to Rally from the Lows of its Range

charts are courtesy of Metastock

 

APC Weekly Chart - Broke Above a Reverse Head and Shoulders Pattern

charts are courtesy of Metastock

 

APC Daily Chart - Trending Up Strongly g

charts are courtesy of Metastock

 

 

Legend: blue lines - range for Tsupiteros

            dotted blue lines - range for Position Traders

            red lines - important trend lines

 

Short-term Traders/Tsupiteros: Medium-term/Position Traders:
Support - 0.46 / 0.53 Support - 0.37
Resistance - 0.65 Resistance - 0.75 / 0.89
Trend - Up Trend - Up
Recommendation - Hold Recommendation - Buy the dips

APC Group, Inc. (APC) has been on the limelight recently as prices surged from 0.36 to 0.56 in just two days time. This is on the back of news that the Company is close to inking a deal with a still unidentified foreign partner for the construction of a Power Plant in Northern Luzon. The stock looks super in the chart but the challenge is to pinpoint where it will peak in the short-term.

With regards to its monthly chart, there's nothing really special about it except that the stock is still rebounding off the lower part of its range of between 0.18 to 1.28. Will it be able to reach the upper part of its range at 1.28? That may be too early to say for now but, potentially, yes, especially since it has already broken above its medium-term resistance at 0.50.

The weekly chart of the stock is where the exciting part of the analysis is as prices have convincingly broken above its resistance at 0.47 to 0.50 and is now trending up. Where is the short-term target of the stock? Given that prices have broken above a bullish reverse head and shoulders pattern, if we follow the Edwards and Magee formula, we are now looking at a minimum of 0.59 to the upside. The weekly chart above also shows where the strong resistances of the stock is located. These resistances can be found where there are big volumes on the left side of the chart. These are at 0.75 and 0.89. Can it actually reach those levels? It's not impossible but, if ever, it will not be in a straight line as prices may already be nearing overbought conditions in the short-term.

The short-term trend is just awesome as prices are trending up very, very strongly like a rocket ship. It only started moving up last Thursday and already it is up by 55%. Obviously, this kind of a movement will not be sustainable for very long as it is moving almost vertically already. However, it is very, very hard, if not impossible, to say where prices will peak in the short-term. By Monday, I expect prices to climb up near the 0.65 level then let's see if the upward momentum can be sustained for Tuesday.

How do we trade this stock? For Tsupiteros, who are lucky enough to be holding a position in this stock, I would suggest to just hold and just use a break below the 0.53 level as your mental stop. As for those who would like to buy this stock, I would tend to think that it may be too late to enter it already as prices are already too high and you might just get caught in the correction, if ever. As for Position-traders, who are currently holding, I would also recommend just holding on to your position and just use a break below the 0.37 level as your mental stop. For Position-traders, who would like to buy this stock, you may want to just wait for the correction to occur before buying. Ideally, you would want to buy as close to 0.40 as possible but if prices continue to surge in the next couple of days, the previous resistances of the stock at 0.50 may already become a support for the stock, thus, you may just want to buy near that level instead.

With the way this stock has been behaving last Friday, I would tend to think that there is still some news that people are anticipating in this one. Maybe the market is anticipating who its foreign partner would be? Once the news comes out, I would expect the market to probably sell on the news and sharp drop might occur so be careful. But, whatever happens, the medium-term picture is definitely bright, thus, Position-traders may treat its next correction as an opportunity to buy the stock low. For the meantime, try not to chase the stock anymore and just let go of it for now. For sure, there will be a second round.

 

 

Notes:

Short-term Traders/Tsupiteros vs. Medium-term/Position Traders: Recommendation for short-term traders or Tsupiteros are meant to be used by traders whose holding period are limited to one day to two weeks. Medium-term or position traders are meant to be used by traders whose holding period are two weeks to three months. Long-term investors whose holding period is more than three months should not follow these recommendations.

 

 

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