for September 2012
27, 2012 (11:00 p.m.)
A lot of people are quite amazed at what BLOOM has done
in the last couple of days but, actually, what is more amazing is AGI.
While the rest of the market is in a sideways, inconsistent and very
erratic trend, AGI has a mind of its own and is in a bull market.
The strong rallies in BLOOM and AGI has triggered the
other gaming stocks to finally move after a long consolidation. Those
who don't want to buy BLOOM and AGI are buying BEL/LR instead. The thing
is, buying BEL and LR right now is also like buying BLOOM and AGI at
current prices. Why? Because BEL and LR will not go up if BLOOM and AGI
starts to drop.
Fundamentalists are saying that one should buy AGI
instead of BLOOM. At current levels, AGI is now worth P146 billion while
BLOOM is now worth P118 billion. Yes, AGI is more expensive but AGI has
Emperador and Megaworld while BLOOM is just the casino. Yes, you could
look at it that way, however, AGI has a free float of 42% while BLOOM
only has 12% in the public's hands, accd. to the PSE website. This
means, AGI has more potential sellers than BLOOM unless, of course,
Razon decides to cash in.
I'm not sure which leads which. Did AGI trigger the
rally in BLOOM or was it the other way around? BLOOM should always be
cheaper than AGI, theoretically, thus, everytime BLOOM goes up, AGI must
go up as well. If, on the other hand, AGI goes down, then, BLOOM must go
down as well. That's if we think rationally. Of course, because of the
lower free float, I wouldn't be surprised if, one of these days, BLOOM
will be more expensive than AGI.
I have an upcoming Technical
Analysis 3-day seminar this October. Venue is at the Valle Verde
Country Club in Pasig (beside the formerly ULTRA). It will be on Oct 6,
13 and 20, 2012. Time is from 9:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. Topics to be
covered will be Classical Charting, Japanese Candlesticks, Elliott Wave
Principle, Trading Systems Basics and other practical trading tips and
strategies. Fee will be P5,000.00 and this includes a free one month
subscription to the Tsupitero Newsletter. I would require a reservation
fee of P1,000.00 if you will be joining. The balance can be paid on the
first day of the seminar itself. If you are interested to attend, just
email me at
26, 2012 (11:30 p.m.)
AC, ALI, SM, PGOLD and now, JGS. Why the sudden selling
by these insiders? Aren't all the economic news and earnings forecasts
bullish? These people know, if you want to sell at the highs, you need
to sell while the going is good.
BLOOM was the star of the show today as the opening day
of its casino is getting closer and closer. Congratulations to all those
who followed my recommendation in my newsletter in this one.
As for the rest of the market, could it be that the
rally two weeks ago was simply a knee-jerk reaction to the QE3? From the
way I see it, we ought to have collapsed already two weeks ago if not
for the QE3.
Was it just last year when my friend Aaron won the poker
tournament in Metrowalk and won P600k? Last night, another friend of
mine, Javi Medina, who is also a stockbroker, won P3.5 million in the
recent Asian Poker Tournament at Resorts World. Does this mean that
traders are good gamblers? Of course! Why? Because traders know how to
play with the odds. They do it everyday. Congratulations Javi!
25, 2012 (11:30 p.m.)
Once again, ACR just couldn't get anything going for
more than 2 days as some heavy holders of the stock are taking advantage
of the liquidity and are getting out. Question is, who is buying?
It's not just ACR but did you notice that almost
everything that were strong yesterday was no longer strong today? That's
simply the situation of the market right now. Low volatility, low
volume, no upside but no downside either. Something will just have to
There is but one exception to what is happening to most
stocks in the market - AGI - but will you still be willing to buy it at
25, 2012 (12:00 a.m.)
I know this sounds like a broken record already but will
ACR do an Advanced Christmas Regalo?
Phenomenal what AGI has done in the last one month.
All-time by tomorrow maybe? But who's willing to buy much higher?
Did PXP finally bottom out today? Short-term, probably,
yes. Medium-term, your guess is as good as mine. PX is in a similar
Some stocks did some short-term breakouts today like EW
and PGOLD. I don't know about EW but PGOLD certainly looks and feels
like a crowded trade to me.
In spite of the market slowly creeping higher,
volatility is still unusually low. What does that mean?
21, 2012 (12:00 a.m.)
The big story of the day was BRN as news came out that
the company was going into a power project in Iloilo. What some people
probably didn't read was that the project will be still be operational 3
years down the road. Technically, the stock was hitting resistances near
4.00 at its highs today. Quite a gutsy move by Tower there.
The market will have to hold right here and right now,
or else, we are back to the drawing board.
20, 2012 (12:00 a.m.)
To get an idea of how low the volatility is in the
market nowadays, among the active issues, the top gainer of the day was
up by just 4% and the top loser of the day was down by just 4%. The rest
of the top gainers and losers were just up or down by 2 to 3%.
Day-traders will simply die a natural death in this market. Swing
traders may survive but 5% gains is already a jackpot for them.
Position-traders, on the other hand, should have the advantage over the
two other groups, however, will you still position when the market is
already trading at an all-time high? Despite prices slowly creeping
higher, tough market conditions indeed.
18, 2012 (11:00 a.m.)
Big cross in BPI today. Could it be that the Ayalas have
sold another batch to the fundies?
JAP is at it again as news came out of an MOA between NI
and DIZ with some obscure sounding mining companies. "Welcome
Despite the ongoing investigations, CAL rose up from the
dead and was up by 26% by the close. Could this mean that the defendants
were found to be "not guilty"?
18, 2012 (12:00 a.m.)
After months of getting stuck, Asiasec finally saw the
opportunity to get out of CYBR as rumors were circulating that the
property of CYBR in the reclamation area will be used by SMC to build
the new airport. Later in the day, CYBR clarified that it did not have
any project in that area anymore.
I'm curiously watching what's going on with ACE. Is
Gatchi (I am presuming that Westlink is Gatchi) really selling, or, is
it a syndicated move before it climbs back up?
Could it finally be JAP time once again?
13, 2012 (11:30 p.m.)
Are we in the start of another bull or is this another
failed rally? Cross your fingers Tsupiteros! :-)
11, 2012 (11:30 p.m.)
Rumor has it that the IRR of the EO on Mining will
finally be signed today, thus, the sudden strength of the entire mining
sector today. Could this finally be the trigger for a low for the mining
sector or is this another failed rally. I guess the answer to that will
now depend on where the general market will be going. So, where is the
market heading? Dow looks quite strong as of this writing but, as for
the PSEi, it still looks 50-50 to me. All I know at this point is that
we are in "the calm before the storm".
11, 2012 (12:30 a.m.)
The big story of the day is the collapse of PX as news
came out that the Padcal mines won't be operational for the rest of the
year. Despite the news though, a lot of buyers came out and the stock
was one of the most active of the day. Didn't they read about the news?
I think most people know that this may just be a temporary setback on
the stock, thus, this drop might be an opportunity to buy the stock low.
However, I'm not sure if the current levels are low enough to buy.
Assuming the stock eventually generates as much income as last year, the
stock is now trading at 13x P/E, if I'm not mistaken. Of course, the
buyers are of the assumption that Padcal will be operational by January
2013. What if there will be a delay? I guess, for long-term traders, you
need not worry about anything if you are buying at these levels. But,
for more short-term Tsupiteros, you need to be little bit more precise.
9, 2012 (11:30 p.m.)
Governments have saved the markets once again. For how
long can they do this? I don't know. Technically, markets are at the
point in the chart wherein prices are just too high to buy but, since it
doesn't want to drop, it's too early to sell either. So, what does a
trader do? Traders need to play the market depending on what it is doing
right now, not what he thinks where markets will go. Yes, I'm guilty of
that sometimes as well. Of course, easier said than done, especially, in
this low volatility environment.
6, 2012 (8:00 p.m.)
I've been so lazy this whole week, given the condition
of the market, which is why I haven't been writing in my blog. There's
just not much to talk about in this low volatility and low volume
environment. It's just too tough to do almost anything. The only thing
one can do right now is buy something and hope that it pans out right in
the future. Day-trading is almost impossible. All I know at this point
is that this current condition of the market will lead to a very big
move in the market soon. Don't ask me where? I hope it's a big move
down. If the market will make new highs again soon, then, we will
continue to move within a sideways to upward trend, at best, unless
these foreign funds who have been selling in the last few weeks, buyback
higher. A friend of mine has been telling me that we will eventually
trend up. Why? Because everyone is so bearish already? Yes, he may be
right. For the last four years, everytime that the market consolidates
and people become bearish, it becomes an opportunity to buy. Will it be
the same this time around? Of course, there will come a time when people
are already bearish and prices are already low, yet, it will still
continue to drop. That's what you call a trend reversal. Some people
would call it a Black Swan. So, would this 4 year bull market continue,
or, are we going to see a Black Swan? Below is a 10-year monthly chart
of the PSEi. Looking at the chart below, if that were a stock, would you
still buy it? I wouldn't.
2, 2012 (6:30 p.m.)
Bernanke came and the US markets rallied. So, does that
mean that the markets are out of woods already? I'm not so sure.
Somehow, I'm still doubtful but let's see.
The PSEi, on the other hand, saw the market close
strongly and was up by 46 points at the close. The only problem is, the
market was actually down prior to the pre-close so all of the gains of
the PSE were actually due to force closings. Why did fundies do that?
From the technical perspective, last Friday was very significant because
it wasn't just the end of the week but also the end of the month.
Imagine if charts closed the week and the month with a long black
candle. It is possible that some of the gains of the Dow were also due
to the same reason.
I think Fidelity Securities was trying to close I-remit
at 3.00. The problem is, they should have done it at the pre-close, not
before it, so their exercise was actually futile. Lucky for those who
were able to sell near 3.00.