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Miko's Blog for
September 2011
Sept 30, 2011 (8:00 p.m.)
I've
been quite lazy doing anything in the last couple of weeks because of
how the market has been behaving. I didn't update my website last week
and I hardly updated my blog this week. Last night, I sent my newsletter
to my subscribers at 11 pm because I fell asleep while doing it.
Naturally, I haven't been trading much as well. This is the problem with
a "long only" market. Once prices start dropping, no one can make money
anymore. This is the reason why you cannot make a career out of the
Philippine stock market. If you want to build a career in the stock
market, go to the US where people can also make money on the way down.
Speaking of a "long-only" market. Notice that Filipino Tsupiteros/Investors
never really turn bearish in the markets. When prices are high, people
are bullish because they think it is strong. When prices are low, people
are still bullish because they now think it is cheap. There's just
always a reason to buy but not enough reasons to sell. If short-selling
was allowed in this market, Filipinos would become more sophisticated in
their thinking and would now learn how to follow the trend.
I
can't understand why people became so aggressive today. The market is
still clearly trending down. I'm guessing that we might have already
peaked today in the short-term or we will peak on Monday, that is, if
I'm reading my charts correctly.
On
Monday, trading would now end at 1:00 p.m. instead of the usual 12:10
p.m. Tsupiteros should be grateful to the PSE because they can now take
a nap between 10:00 a.m. and 12:00 noon everyday.
Sept 27, 2011 (9:30 p.m.)
What
Tsupiteros are thinking right now:
The
Tsupitero who got stuck at the highs - Maybe I should average down again
for the 5th time.
The
Tsupitero who sold at the highs but were not able to buyback - Tell
everyone that this is nothing more than a dead cat bounce but, secretly,
buy on the dips.
The
Tsupitero who bought last Friday but was stopped out and sold yesterday
- I can't believe that "they" are monitoring my trades. You can't beat
the syndicate.
The
Tsupitero who bought last Monday but who also bought last Friday, last
Thursday, last Wednesday and last Tuesday - I knew it!!!
The
Tsupitero who had impeccable timing and bought only yesterday - I'm a
genius for buying ACPA.
The
Tsupitero who bought a JAP stock - @+%^&!*#@+%^&!*#
Sept 26, 2011 (11:30 p.m.)
The
huge volatility swings in the US has finally arrived in the Southeast
Asian region. Obviously, the strong dollar had something to do with
this. Could it be that we will now be weaker than the US markets?
In
just a blink of an eye, the PSEi has dropped by almost 600 points or 14%
in just five days time. I'm quite certain a lot of people got caught off
guard by this and simply did not see it coming. I guess the black
swan has finally arrived to all those who have been making money in this
range. There is such a thing called a "trend".
I
see quite a number of issues that look oversold already in the
short-term. I even see some, which are quite extremely oversold. The
problem is, how do you make money in an environment wherein prices can
gap down below you the following day if you make a wrong call? I have a
few ideas but none are devoid of risk and I'm not even sure if buying in
this sort of environment is worth the risk.
Sept 22, 2011 (11:00 p.m.)
A
lot of people were probably thinking that JAP stocks would be the next
group of stocks that could be immune from all the external noise in the
world markets. Unfortunately, the biggest losers in the market today
were actually JAP stocks. In my opinion, the JAP stocks are the most
difficult stocks to trade in the whole market nowadays. The problem with
JAP stocks is, you just never know when to get out. For those who buy
and hold, you may have bought NI at 3.50 but I'm pretty sure you were
not able to sell today. By the time the buy and hold people figure out
that it's time to get out, it's too late as prices have already gone
down so much. For the Tsupiteros, they too are having a difficult time
to trade as there are simply so much fake moves either to the upside or
to the downside. So, who wins? Only JAP wins. As my friend Mike told me
this afternoon, JAP season is hunting season and we are the prey. For
those who play with JAP, good luck cause you're going to need it.
By
the way, NI issues 100 million shares to JAP at 2.25. Because of this
disclosure, NI should be trading 0.24 cents lower compared with its
previous close at 4.37 because of the dilution.
Did
the PSEi finally broke below its 2 and a half year support line today?
If so, we may never see 4563 again. Anyone saw Jakarta today? Minimum,
3900 coming ... tomorrow.
Sept 20, 2011 (8:15 p.m.)
I
don't know if you've noticed but the southeast asian markets like
Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines, which used to behave a lot
stronger than the rest of the world, has now started behaving relatively
weaker. Why the sudden change? As I have been stating in the last few
days, watch the strong dollar!
Is
it just me or am I seeing head and shoulders everywhere?
Notice also that Gold, which used to act inversely proportionate to the
equity markets, is now behaving in direct proportion to it. At 1500, the
market saw Gold as a safe haven but, at 1900, it may no longer be safe.
If you'll remember, Gold has actually been climbing along with the
equity markets for the last two and a half years.
For
those of who were tipped off and were buying BHI, I think your tipster
made a mistake. The correct tip was actually BH, not BHI. BH hit the
ceiling today. (haha)
Song
of the day - My Heart will go on by Celine Dion (song from the Titanic)
:-)
Sept 18, 2011 (9:30 p.m.)
Admittedly, I became too bearish on the markets in the last couple of
days. I have to say, I was quite surprised that the Dow was still able
to climb back up towards the 11500 level. However, I don't think the
market are out of the woods already. Again, watch the Peso-Dollar! If
the Peso continues to depreciate, the relative strength that our market
has been enjoying vis-à-vis the western stock markets might soon
disintegrate.
I
just watched a video of Elliott Wave Principle guru, Robert Prechter,
declare a "right shoulder" being formed in the Dow Jones Industrial
Average on its monthly chart. While I do not really agree with him on
that one, I am not discounting the possibility that the Dow will
eventually drop back down towards the 8000 or 9000 levels in the next
few months.
Yes,
I am definitely quite bearish on the medium-term picture of the markets
right now. However, as long as markets don't crash, basuras like JAP
stocks and Lolo stocks will continue to be immune from all the external
distractions.
DBP-Daiwa
seems to be quite bearish on our market too as he, once again, forced
closed some big caps last Friday. The PSEi was suppose to close up by 23
points last Friday but because of what he did, our market closed down by
1 point. Isn't he such a generous fellow? I hope he does it again
tomorrow. I'll be waiting for you. :-)
Sept 14, 2011 (6:00 p.m.)
Has
the storm arrived? Watch the Peso-Dollar rate! 45.00 to a Dollar coming?
Sept 14, 2011 (5:00 a.m.)
Notice the low value turnover and low volatility environment in the PSE?
We are at "the calm before the storm".
Sept 12, 2011 (10:15 p.m.)
Could the next leg of the downtrend have begun already? Dow is rallying
as of this writing but I'm not sure if it can still go anywhere higher
after tonight's bounce.
PSE,
on the other hand, is now poised to make a gigantic move anytime now
either to the upside or to the downside. Is that a "right shoulder" that
I'm seeing?
Someone from SJ Roxas Securities certainly seems to think that world
markets are going to plunge.
I
saw basura issues like JFC and SMDC go to the roof last Friday. I knew
they couldn't get sustained because those issues are trash. I have more
faith in blue chips stocks like AR, BHI and UPM. (hehe)
Is
mining dead? Not yet but, if they are to stay alive, these are the
levels that already ought to hold.
Sept 9, 2011 (12:30 a.m.)
In
the Elliott Wave Principle, a breakdown from a head and shoulders top is
bullish. :-)
Sept 8, 2011 (1:00 a.m.)
Some
interesting bits of stats:
P20
billion - the amount of wealth lost in LC/LCB just in the last 8 days
P38
million - the amount of transactions done in BHI at P0.53 yesterday
63%
- the percentage drop of AGP from its peak at 53.40
2.7%
- the year to date gain of the PSEi index
11
months - the # of months that the PSEi has been in an erratic sideways
to upward trend
xxxx
- the number of very frustrated Tsupiteros right now
Sept 6, 2011 (8:30 p.m.)
What
happened in BHI today was quite extraordinary and irregular. It was
suddenly halted at 11:47 a.m. without any warning from the PSE.
It
is ok if it can be guaranteed that the stock will go up once trading
resumes but, if prices drop once trading resumes, someone ought to be
liable to all those who would have wanted to sell before the end of the
day. As a trader, the worst thing that I wouldn't want to happen to me
is to lose money, not because of my bad trading, but because of
extraneous events such as bad policies of the PSE.
I
sure hope the PSE can stop all these voluntary suspensions at will. If
they do decide to continue with this, I do hope that they could set
guidelines and, at least, inform the public before a suspension occurs.
It would also be great if they could compel companies to tell the public
how many weeks/days/hours their company would get suspended or halted.
The worst thing that can happen to you as a trader is for you to get
stuck with a stock that gets suspended and you have absolutely no idea
when it is going to resume trading.
This
isn't the first time that I've complained about these trading halts and
suspensions as I am very much against it. I just hope that someone from
the higher ups in the PSE is reading my blog.
Sept 6, 2011 (1:00 a.m.)
Despite the whole world now collapsing, our market continues to defy
gravity and pretend that there is nothing going on. In fact, mining and
the speculative issues are still alive and kicking. Can this environment
continue? The PSE is now like a volcano just waiting to explode either
to the upside or to the downside.
I'm
thinking, there might be a time in the future wherein Gold will continue
to surge but the mining sector will no longer follow. Take note, where
LC goes, all the other basuras follow so watch LC carefully. Possible
"right shoulder" in the works for LC or am I just seeing things?
Sept 5, 2011 (12:00 a.m.)
I'd
like to congratulate Mr. Bennett for a windfall in LC. Bennett may seem
haphazard in his trading at times but he certainly knows how to trade
and follow the trend. He may have had a lot of losses in his trades but
his windfall in LC should more than make up for all his losses. The
thing is, is the uptrend of LC really over already?
Almost all the world markets are now seemingly forming bearish pennant
patterns. Dow 10,000 coming? Gold 2200 coming?
I
can only see two type of stocks that can survive in this environment:
mining and those with a jockey. If the stock has both, then, you still
have a chance to make money ... maybe. :-)
Sep 1, 2011 (9:00 p.m.)
Did
the market just shift from the basuras/mining to the blues and other
sectors of the market today? With everyone already loaded with basuras/mining
and absolutely no one minding the blues and second-liners, it could very
well be. However, last night was a perfect 50% retracement of the Dow
from its lows with even an almost picture perfect A-B-C corrective wave
pattern. If so, can the PSE rally with the Dow dropping off a cliff? Or
maybe the Dow isn't as bearish as it seems.
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