Miko's Blog for Sep 2010

I wonder if Philippine Equity Partners have a lot of SM in their inventory as they force closed SM from 520 to 570 as today marked the end of the 3rd quarter. That 10% rally in SM resulted to a 25 point rally in the index. Market ought to have closed down by 40 points but it ended the day down by just 11 points.

I have a song for all players of LC:

"Nandyan ka naman, tinutukso-tukso ang aking puso,

Ilang ulit na ba, iniiwasan ka, di na natuto..."

I'm no longer going to write anything about ACR anymore from this point on. I'll just let the ticker do the talking. :-)

Sept 27, 2010

Obviously, from the flow of funds today, the market has now shifted from mining to power. ACR is also a power play but has a completely different cycle as it already went ahead of the pack in the last couple of days.

Did the Dow do what I just think it did last Friday? 11,750 coming perhaps? I can't imagine how the PSEi would look like if that happens.

Fearless forecast - It will now be TEL and MER that will lead this market higher.

Sept 23, 2010

Market was listless today but the center of attraction was still the mining sector but could it be overheating already? Congratulations to all miners!

I bet Lolo had the time of his life with his LC and LCB today. Those with the fastest fingers will win in Lepanto tomorrow (hehe). As with Lolo, he's already a winner with a cool US$10 million in his pocket care of Gold Fields. P786 million value turnover today?!! I wonder how much he was able to cash-in in the market today.

I'm salivating with PNB. I sold that one way too early. From the looks of it, good news will come very, very soon. For the bulls on this one, what you want is for the good news to get delayed for long as you could.

My Advanced Christmas Regalo continued to march higher today. I noticed that broker 110 was suddenly a big buyer and seller in the stock. Could JAP be interested in having an early Christmas as well?

Sept 22, 2010

Advanced Christmas Regalo (ACR)

Sources of Revenues:

97% power and energy

3% property development and others

ACR's investment in Energy and Power business is through two holding firms namely, Conal Holdings Corp. (Conal) and Alsing Power Holdings, Inc. (Alsing). Conal owns all of ACR's Philippine power generation businesses, namely: (a) Northern Mindanao Power Corp with a 50.78% stake; (b) Alsing Power Holdings, Inc. at 80% stake; and (c) Alto Power Management Corp. at 60%. Alsing in turn owns 55% of: (a) Western Mindanao Power Corporation; and, (b) Southern Philippines Power Corporation. Further, ACR directly owns 20% of Alsing and 4.86% of Northern Mindanao Power Corp.

Icing on the cake - The Alcantaras, who owns majority of ACR, has a 10% stake in Indophil. It is rumored that Manny Pangilinan will buy-out the Alcantara's stake in Indophil. If the deal pushes thru, they may stand to get US$50 million or approximately P2.2 billion. They may use this money in ACR.

Book Value per share - P1.68

EPS assuming P1 billion profits for 2010 - P0.1589

Current P/E ratio - 7x 2010 earnings

To sumarize, ACR is one of the cheapest plays in the market in the Power sector. The "Indophil play" is just bonus.

Fearless forecast - All those who got stuck in ACR last late 2009 will be able to get out this year alive!

Sept 21, 2010

Sold everything today from my TEL all the way down to my MA as the market is now reaching my major resistance at 4200 and foreign funds have begun selling already since yesterday. I bought just one stock today. All I know is that the Alcantaras will have an Advanced Christmas Regalo very, very soon! :-)

Sept 20, 2010

Wow! Parabolic Spike still in the works for the greatest stock market in the world right now!!

Could it be time to shift from Mining to Lopez and Property again? Or maybe I should just stop shifting (haha).

Why buy Cebu Pacific, when you can buy PAL? PaPALipad pa lang. Could PAL be the first of the "ceiling plays"? The hunt is now on!!!

Fearless forecast - Dow 10850 coming!

Sept 16, 2010

Happy New Year Everyone!!! Christmas is over because I see all these fireworks (basuras) popping up left and right. I get nervous when I see stocks like APM and UPM climb up on heavy volume. I get doubly nervous when the Dow is up, yet, I see a number of big caps dropping already. Let's hope this market can continue to defy gravity but, you know me, in times like these, I start pulling out some money off the table, just to be on the safe side. :-)

Sept 15, 2010

I have to say, it was quite a coincidence that I mentioned about Gold yesterday just when it went berserk last night and hit an all-time high. I bet a lot of PX and AT fans were quite disappointed this morning. It was the LC fans that were ecstatic today though.

I think some foreign fund managers heeded my call for TEL to go up as it cushioned the fall of ALI and SMPH today. I wonder if TEL can break above its resistance at 2500 by tomorrow.

I'm stunned by FGEN and EDC but I think their moves are justified. From a purely technical point of view, properties and the big banks are now overbought but the Lopez stocks may still be just in the middle of their moves. What sectors are lagging the market? Telecoms and Mining, even at current levels. Of course, the basura sector are laggards as well.

Foreign funds are going crazy with our market. Today, they were net buyers again by almost a billion. What can they do? They have nowhere else to go. Europe is a disaster. Japan is hopeless. US is like a ticking time-bomb. And China is still trying to cool off. Asia (excluding China and Japan) is the only place in the world where funds can make a living. You can compare what is happening to the PSE now to something like Manny Pangilinan suddenly buying a very small cap stock like MUSX in the board. Just to give you an idea of how small our market is, the average value turnover of Citibank (C) alone in one single trading day in the US is US$2 billion or roughly P90 billion. :-)

Sept 14, 2010

The market gave a big scare today but I don't think we've seen the peak yet as foreign funds continue to be big buyers in our market. Yesterday, they were net buyers by P2 billion. Today, they were net buyers by P1.5 billion. And, besides, I haven't read about the Stock Market in the headlines yet. However, for the index to climb further, we certainly need the help of but one stock - PLDT.

Mining stocks now appear to be in play. Fearless forecast - Gold will hit $1,350 in a few weeks time.

Sept 13, 2010

For the last couple of days, I've been using my heart and I was simply following the trend. Today, I did something different, I used my head and I sold a lot. I can't help it, I'm no longer comfortable with this parabola anymore. My "Mommy" told me though that greed is good. :-)

For the first time in a long time, I have finally recommended a "take profits" on a lot of the blue chips issues. Most especially, I think properties and the big banks are now extremely overbought already. There is but one sector in the whole market that still hasn't moved up yet up to now. I went "all-in" in that sector today.

Fearless forecast - This market will peak when you see the Stock Market at the front page of the broadsheet.

Sept 9, 2010

Hohoho!!! :-)

Sept 8, 2010

Song of the Day:

"Pasko na naman, O kay tulin ng araw

Paskong nagdaan, Tila ba kung kailan lang

Ngayon ay Pasko, Dapat pasalamatan

Ngayon ay Pasko, Tayo ay magawitan..." :-)

Sept 7, 2010

Didn't you get surprised when you saw the close of the PSEi today? The market ought to have closed slightly down for the day but because of DBP-Daiwa's force closing of ALI at 18.00, the PSEi was up by 31 points at the close. The debate now is, can it really be a "force close" when DBP-Daiwa actually bought 663,200 shares of ALI at 18.00? Someone from HDI Securities would like to thank him for being able to sell 100,000 shares at 18.00 today. :-)

As expected, it was a basura day today and leading the pack were APC, AT and ETON. I would like to congratulate all those who followed my newsletter in the last couple of days and bought APC and ETON. Sabi ko na nga ba ETO Na yung Advanced Pera ko for Christmas. :-)

Sept 6, 2010

Sorry, I forgot to mention that, at the end of a parabolic spike, there is an equally big move to the downside. Just when we all thought that this market is now a "no-brainer", the market suddenly moves against us. Mind you, the trickiest part of the trend is actually here within a parabolic spike. Why? Because you are both greedy and scared at the same time. The big question now is, have the three kings arrived? :-)

I wonder what's going to fly next now that some blue chips and the second-liners have reached their upside targets already? :-)

Sept 4, 2010

HOHOHO! Merry Christmas!!! :-)

Sept 2, 2010

The challenge now isn't to find what will go up but, rather, to find the fastest horse. Parabolic spike now in the works! Merry Christmas everyone!!!

Sept 1, 2010

DBP-Daiwa continued to be a big seller in our market. If I'm not mistaken, he sold another P300 million worth of stocks today. Can you just imagine what would happen once he is done with his selling? :-)

Among the 3rd liners, LND and APC seems to have gathered some following recently. I haven't been playing these issues because I'm concentrating on the bigger 2nd line issues. After what happened today, I think I better start minding these kinds of stocks once again.

What was in vogue today? Obviously Lopez are now once again in play. I wonder if the grass is greener this time around. :-)

Cebu Pacific has once again stated that it wants to pursue with its IPO but, this time, they want to do it at P150.00 per share. Are they nuts?!! I definitely will not buy this one at P95.00 and I certainly have no plans of buying this one at P150.00. Take note, if this IPO pushes thru and it gets oversubscribed, this will be the cause of our market to collapse due to the sheer size of the offering.

News just came out that Globe Asiatique is postponing their IPO. I can't blame them especially if the Vice-President of the Philippines has ordered an investigation into their company regarding alleged irregularities in its housing projects. I think they better prove their innocence first in court before they proceed with their IPO, otherwise, they won't find any buyers for their IPO.

Dow futures are currently up 100 points, as of this writing. I think it's about time for the Dow to rally. Those who think that the Dow is a H&S are seeing things that are not there, at least, not yet. :-)