Miko's Blog for
Sept 30, 2010
I've been quite busy
in the last couple of days, which is why I haven't been writing here in
I wonder if
Philippine Equity Partners have a lot of SM in their inventory as they
force closed SM from 520 to 570 as today marked the end of the 3rd
quarter. That 10% rally in SM resulted to a 25 point rally in the index.
Market ought to have closed down by 40 points but it ended the day down
by just 11 points.
I have a song for
all players of LC:
"Nandyan ka naman,
tinutukso-tukso ang aking puso,
Ilang ulit na ba,
iniiwasan ka, di na natuto..."
I'm no longer going
to write anything about ACR anymore from this point on. I'll just let
the ticker do the talking. :-)
Sept 27, 2010
Obviously, from the
flow of funds today, the market has now shifted from mining to power.
ACR is also a power play but has a completely different cycle as it
already went ahead of the pack in the last couple of days.
Did the Dow do what
I just think it did last Friday? 11,750 coming perhaps? I can't imagine
how the PSEi would look like if that happens.
Fearless forecast -
It will now be TEL and MER that will lead this market higher.
Sept 23, 2010
Market was listless
today but the center of attraction was still the mining sector but could
it be overheating already? Congratulations to all miners!
I bet Lolo had the
time of his life with his LC and LCB today. Those with the fastest
fingers will win in Lepanto tomorrow (hehe). As with Lolo, he's already
a winner with a cool US$10 million in his pocket care of Gold Fields.
P786 million value turnover today?!! I wonder how much he was able to
cash-in in the market today.
I'm salivating with
PNB. I sold that one way too early. From the looks of it, good news will
come very, very soon. For the bulls on this one, what you want is for
the good news to get delayed for long as you could.
Christmas Regalo continued to march higher today. I noticed that broker
110 was suddenly a big buyer and seller in the stock. Could JAP be
interested in having an early Christmas as well?
Sept 22, 2010
Sources of Revenues:
97% power and energy
development and others
ACR's investment in
Energy and Power business is through two holding firms namely, Conal
Holdings Corp. (Conal) and Alsing Power Holdings, Inc. (Alsing). Conal
owns all of ACR's Philippine power generation businesses, namely: (a)
Northern Mindanao Power Corp with a 50.78% stake; (b) Alsing Power
Holdings, Inc. at 80% stake; and (c) Alto Power Management Corp. at 60%.
Alsing in turn owns 55% of: (a) Western Mindanao Power Corporation; and,
(b) Southern Philippines Power Corporation. Further, ACR directly owns
20% of Alsing and 4.86% of Northern Mindanao Power Corp.
Icing on the cake -
The Alcantaras, who owns majority of ACR, has a 10% stake in Indophil.
It is rumored that Manny Pangilinan will buy-out the Alcantara's stake
in Indophil. If the deal pushes thru, they may stand to get US$50
million or approximately P2.2 billion. They may use this money in ACR.
Book Value per share
EPS assuming P1
billion profits for 2010 - P0.1589
Current P/E ratio -
7x 2010 earnings
To sumarize, ACR is
one of the cheapest plays in the market in the Power sector. The "Indophil
play" is just bonus.
Fearless forecast -
All those who got stuck in ACR last late 2009 will be able to get out
this year alive!
Sept 21, 2010
everything today from my TEL all the way down to my MA as the market is
now reaching my major resistance at 4200 and foreign funds have begun
selling already since yesterday. I bought just one stock today. All I
know is that the Alcantaras will have an Advanced Christmas Regalo very,
very soon! :-)
Sept 20, 2010
Parabolic Spike still in the works for the greatest stock market in the
world right now!!
Could it be time to shift from Mining to Lopez and Property again? Or
maybe I should just stop shifting (haha).
buy Cebu Pacific, when you can buy PAL? PaPALipad pa lang. Could PAL be
the first of the "ceiling plays"? The hunt is now on!!!
Fearless forecast - Dow 10850 coming!
Sept 16, 2010
Happy New Year Everyone!!! Christmas is over because I see all these
fireworks (basuras) popping up left and right. I get nervous when I see
stocks like APM and UPM climb up on heavy volume. I get doubly nervous
when the Dow is up, yet, I see a number of big caps dropping already.
Let's hope this market can continue to defy gravity but, you know me, in
times like these, I start pulling out some money off the table, just to
be on the safe side. :-)
Sept 15, 2010
have to say, it was quite a coincidence that I mentioned about Gold
yesterday just when it went berserk last night and hit an all-time high.
I bet a lot of PX and AT fans were quite disappointed this
morning. It was the LC fans that were ecstatic today though.
think some foreign fund managers heeded my call for TEL to go up as it
cushioned the fall of ALI and SMPH today. I wonder if TEL can break
above its resistance at 2500 by tomorrow.
stunned by FGEN and EDC but I think their moves are justified. From a
purely technical point of view, properties and the big banks are now
overbought but the Lopez stocks may still be just in the middle of their
moves. What sectors are lagging the market? Telecoms and Mining, even at
current levels. Of course, the basura sector are laggards as well.
Foreign funds are going crazy with our market. Today, they were net
buyers again by almost a billion. What can they do? They have nowhere
else to go. Europe is a disaster. Japan is hopeless. US is like a
ticking time-bomb. And China is still trying to cool off. Asia
(excluding China and Japan) is the only place in the world where funds
can make a living. You can compare what is happening to the PSE now to
something like Manny Pangilinan suddenly buying a very small cap stock
like MUSX in the board. Just to give you an idea of how small our market
is, the average value turnover of Citibank (C) alone in one single
trading day in the US is US$2 billion or roughly P90 billion. :-)
Sept 14, 2010
The market gave
a big scare today but I don't think we've seen the peak yet as foreign
funds continue to be big buyers in our market. Yesterday, they were net
buyers by P2 billion. Today, they were net buyers by P1.5 billion. And,
besides, I haven't read about the Stock Market in the headlines yet.
However, for the index to climb further, we certainly need the help of
but one stock - PLDT.
now appear to be in play. Fearless forecast - Gold will hit $1,350 in a
few weeks time.
Sept 13, 2010
For the last
couple of days, I've been using my heart and I was simply following the
trend. Today, I did something different, I used my head and I sold a
lot. I can't help it, I'm no longer comfortable with this parabola
anymore. My "Mommy" told me though that greed is good. :-)
For the first
time in a long time, I have finally recommended a "take profits" on a
lot of the blue chips issues. Most especially, I think properties and
the big banks are now extremely overbought already. There is but one
sector in the whole market that still hasn't moved up yet up to now. I
went "all-in" in that sector today.
forecast - This market will peak when you see the Stock Market at the
front page of the broadsheet.
Sept 9, 2010
Sept 8, 2010
of the Day:
"Pasko na naman, O
kay tulin ng araw
Tila ba kung kailan lang
Ngayon ay Pasko,
Ngayon ay Pasko,
Tayo ay magawitan..." :-)
Sept 7, 2010
Didn't you get surprised when you saw the close of the PSEi today? The
market ought to have closed slightly down for the day but because of DBP-Daiwa's
force closing of ALI at 18.00, the PSEi was up by 31 points at the
close. The debate now is, can it really be a "force close" when DBP-Daiwa
actually bought 663,200 shares of ALI at 18.00? Someone from HDI
Securities would like to thank him for being able to sell 100,000 shares
at 18.00 today. :-)
expected, it was a basura day today and leading the pack were APC, AT
and ETON. I would like to congratulate all those who followed my
newsletter in the last couple of days and bought APC and ETON. Sabi ko
na nga ba ETO
ko for Christmas.
Sept 6, 2010
Sorry, I forgot to mention that, at the end of a parabolic spike, there
is an equally big move to the downside. Just when we all thought that
this market is now a "no-brainer", the market suddenly moves against us.
Mind you, the trickiest part of the trend is actually here within a
parabolic spike. Why? Because you are both greedy and scared at the same
time. The big question now is, have the three kings arrived? :-)
wonder what's going to fly next now that some blue chips and the
second-liners have reached their upside targets already? :-)
Sept 4, 2010
HOHOHO! Merry Christmas!!! :-)
Sept 2, 2010
challenge now isn't to find what will go up but, rather, to find the
fastest horse. Parabolic spike now in the works! Merry Christmas
Sept 1, 2010
continued to be a big seller in our market. If I'm not mistaken, he sold
another P300 million worth of stocks today. Can you just imagine what
would happen once he is done with his selling? :-)
Among the 3rd liners, LND and APC seems to have gathered some following
recently. I haven't been playing these issues because I'm concentrating
on the bigger 2nd line issues. After what happened today, I think I
better start minding these kinds of stocks once again.
was in vogue today? Obviously Lopez are now once again in play. I wonder
if the grass is greener this time around. :-)
Pacific has once again stated that it wants to pursue with its IPO but,
this time, they want to do it at P150.00 per share. Are they nuts?!! I
definitely will not buy this one at P95.00 and I certainly have no plans
of buying this one at P150.00. Take note, if this IPO pushes thru and it
gets oversubscribed, this will be the cause of our market to collapse
due to the sheer size of the offering.
just came out that Globe Asiatique is postponing their IPO. I can't
blame them especially if the Vice-President of the Philippines has
ordered an investigation into their company regarding alleged
irregularities in its housing projects. I think they better prove their
innocence first in court before they proceed with their IPO, otherwise,
they won't find any buyers for their IPO.
futures are currently up 100 points, as of this writing. I think it's
about time for the Dow to rally. Those who think that the Dow is a H&S
are seeing things that are not there, at least, not yet. :-)