Miko's Blog for Sep 2009

I sold all my PX today. I tried very hard not to get tempted to buy anything today. Even PIP, which I actually recommended in my newsletter yesterday, I controlled myself from buying anymore.

This month is the first down month we've had in 7 months' time. If you lost 10% this month from the highs of your portfolio, that is but natural. I'm pretty sure most people still made a lot more than I did. The important thing is to protect what you've already made. This is how I see the market - would you chase a stock that went up from 17.00 to 29.00 in seven days' time?

ALI will give the signal. Watch it carefully!

THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM!!!

% of portfolio in the market - 5%

% in cash - 95%

Year to date return - 54%

Sept 29, 2009

Making money in this market is like finding a needle in a haystack. The funny thing is, it's so frustrating for both the bulls as well as the bears.

I lost a little money today care of NI. My only other position, LOTO, I sold as well at cost. I think that may have been a mistake. I bought MPI today at the highs cause it looked like there was something there but when I saw that the momentum stopped, I sold it again one fluc lower. I bought a small position in PX.

By the way, I'm nominating myself as President of "Tsupiteros Anonymous" (hahaha). How can anyone trade this market? Both Volume and volatility has declined already. We are now in "the calm before the storm".

I really hope this market starts to trend already. I really don't care if it trends up or trends down as long as it trends. This is the type of market where I can really get killed.

% of portfolio in the market - 15%

% in cash - 85%

Year to date return - 54%

Sept 28, 2009

Today's very low value turnover was because a lot of Tsupiteros did not trade today and was also because of the drop in the Dow Futures. The result, the market dropped under its own weight. Remember, for the market to climb, there has to be volume but volume is not required for the market to go down.

The Nikkei broke below its support today. This market has now followed breakdowns in Shanghai, Oil and Copper.

I didn't do anything today. There was just nothing one can do anymore. For those who still bought something today, don't you worry, I'll try to organize "Tsupiteros Anonymous" in the future. :-)

% of portfolio in the market - 25%

% in cash - 75%

Year to date return - 55%

Sept 25, 2009

It's still a very complicated and uncertain market right now. Nobody still really knows for sure whether we will eventually go up or go down. Anyway, as long as the market is not trending down, I'll just keep on fighting.

I tried to day-trade PIP but I just sold at break-even. I added a gaming stock to my portfolio. It seems to me that the only thing moving up right now are the gaming stocks.

% of portfolio in the market - 25%

% in cash - 75%

Year to date return - 55%

Sept 24, 2009

I made coffee money from my position in BEL. I was able to day-trade MER for some coffee money. I wasn't suppose to buy anything anymore but I got tempted to buy the stock that I recommended in my newsletter yesterday - NI.

I got goosebumps this morning when I saw how the Dow closed last night. From the way I see it, the Dow may have already peaked last night. Could we have already seen the end of this six month bull in the equity markets last night?

A lot of people are complaining about MPI. Why weren't the local investors given an allocation on the follow-on offering? Why weren't the local investors informed that the shares would immediately be tradeable? Why weren't the local investors informed in advance that the offering price was going to be at P3.00? Why didn't the PSE suspend the issue to give the public enough time to absorb the news? It was fortunate for me that I wasn't a victim in this stock but I really feel for those who lost money. To say that offering was mishandled is an understatement.

% of portfolio in the market - 15%

% in cash - 85%

Year to date return - 55%

Sept 23, 2009

I'm happy to have been able to clean my portfolio today as I took small profits on most of my positions.

I sold my SPH with a one fluc loss. I made coffee money in GEO. I took profits from my MPI. Sometimes, I wondering if it's really worth playing a sideways market. You may lose a little then you make a little. At the end of the day, you come out just break-even - a zero-sum game.

I'm holding just two stocks right now, my miniscule position in PO and the stock that I have been recommending in my newsletter.

The market was up by almost 60 points today but, unless you were holding TEL or MER, you probably didn't feel it.

Talking about politics, I really hate people in government who accuse but doesn't have any evidence to back up their claims. All they do is add to the chaos.

% of portfolio in the market - 15%

% in cash - 85%

Year to date return - 55%

Sept 22, 2009

This market is really testing my patience right now. This is the type of market where I can really lose a lot. It's isn't going down so you get tempted to buy but it isn't going up either so you tend to sell when it doesn't go up. Last year, my biggest losses did not come when the market dropped from 3900 to 2000, my biggest losses occurred when it was trading from 1700 to 2000.

Once again, it's Tuesday and I had a disaster of a day. I can't believe I still lost money in APX and my cost was 10% below last Friday's close! I made coffee money in ORE but that could have been a jackpot already. I sold all my TUNA today cause it looks like a bull-trap. I lost some money there. I'm not at all superstitious but this Tuesday thingy is now making me a believer.

I bought a lot of MPI today. I bought a small position in a JAP stock and I bought one of stocks that I have been recommending in my newsletter for a couple of weeks now. I'm giving this market up to tomorrow to help me make money. When I checked my equity line, everytime my portfolio drops by 4% from its highs, I tend to make money the following days after. Thus, if I still lose money right now, the "support" of my equity line would break and it would be a big warning sign for me already.

I really pity all those who got stuck in MPI at the highs. With the move like what it did today, no one could have done anything about it anymore. Nevertheless, from a trading point of view, the rally from 4.40 to 5.00 was a crystal clear opportunity to sell. If you didn't sell during that rally, you can blame no one but yourself for getting stuck right now. Oftentimes, it really pays to follow the trend.

% of portfolio in the market - 50%

% in cash - 50%

Year to date return - 54%

Sept 18, 2009

I had a wonderful day in the market today. Finally, after so many days, the market has finally showed some signs of life. I think TEL and MER has finally found support.

I just love that exotic mining stock of mine (ORE). It's now round 4 for me on that one, no losses. :-)

I added another exotic mining stock to my portfolio today - a stock that has been dormant for the last six months.

I wanted to buy a lot of SPH at the lows but I was only able to buy some.

% of portfolio in the market - 60%

% in cash - 40%

Year to date return - 56%

Sept 17, 2009

The Dow is now trading at a new 52-week high and what is our market doing? It's hardly bouncing off its support. :-(

I sold my WEB at "same price". I bought some TUNA today and I also bought a miniscule position on my favorite exotic mining stock. If I still don't make money in these issues, I think it may be time to take a very long vacation from the markets.

% of portfolio in the market - 25%

% in cash - 75%

Year to date return - 56%

Sept 16, 2009

What a boring day in the PSE today?! What the hell is wrong with our market? If our market can't go up with the Dow climbing, what more when the Dow goes down?! Want to confirm if our market is indeed already trending down or not? Just watch 300.00 in AC, 10.00 in ALI and 43.50 in BPI. If they break below their support levels, the downtrend will be confirmed.

I hardly did anything today. I sold my BEL with some coffee money and transferred to something that had upward momentum.

% of portfolio in the market - 15%

% in cash - 85%

Year to date return - 56%

Sept 15, 2009

I knew that the market was quite vulnerable already but I kept on pushing the buy button during the day. Talk about being stubborn! For the last couple of weeks, there were plays that existed despite the whole market being down. Today, was quite different as nothing remained strong except one issue - CYBR. I saw that it was strong already but I controlled myself from buying cause I don't want to use any momentum strategies anymore.

I sold the MIC that I bought yesterday with a two fluc loss. I bought TUNA during the day but I cut it with a three fluc loss. I bottom-picked WEB but I lost one fluc. There's really something about Tuesdays that makes me unlucky for that day.

I'm holding just one remaining stock right now, which looked steady during the day, plus my miniscule position in PO.

One by one, some issues are beginning to collapse. First, there was MER, then MPI, then CYBR, now there was WEB and LIHC. I believe there will be more soon.

Chucky pulled a fast one again on the market as he issued 10 million shares of LIHC at P5.00 via a private placement. I pity those who got victimized by him once again. I'm placing a ban on trading of all Chucky stocks from now on.

The market will have to rebound in the next two days or this so-called bull market is over.

% of portfolio in the market - 15%

% in cash - 85%

Year to date return - 56%

Sept 14, 2009

I swear, everytime I put in a big position in the market, the market goes down the next day (hahaha). I guess this only proves that the market is in a sideways trend and not up. The worst enemy of a trend-follower like me is a consolidating market.

Neverthelss, I was still able to make money today. I took profits from all my SPH today. I lost two flucs in MEG. I was able to day-trade ABA (thanks Chucky! hihihi). I made coffee money in ORE. I bought a JAP stock and a gaming stock. Obviously, gaming stocks are now in play. You win some, you lose some but, as long as at the end of the day, you make money, then that's ok.

I'm getting nervous about this market again as the two heavyweights of the market are not exactly looking bullish. MER broke below its support at 190.00 and TEL is just clinging to its support at 2400.

% of portfolio in the market - 25%

% in cash - 75%

Year to date return - 58%

Sept 11, 2009

I had a pretty good day in the market today as the biggest position in my portfolio went up, SPH. I added more of it today. Deutsche Regis, who was the big seller in that stock, appears have sold his entire position already.

I bought some MEG today cause the properties looked strong. I also bought back my favorite exotic mining stock.

I was also able to buy more PO at the lows. I better take advantage of this hype in Noynoy to buy the stock low. :-)

I'm glad to have gotten out of CYBR yesterday. Whew! That was close!

The market is finally showing some signs of life. We will know by next week if we will be going to 3200 or not. So far, so good but we will need further confirmations. At this point, I am now more bullish than bearish in the short-term.

% of portfolio in the market - 70%

% in cash - 30%

Year to date return - 56%

Sept 10, 2009

I had a disaster of a day today. Hayyy, it's just one of those days.

I tried to be very, very patient with my CYBR because I knew I bought at the lows already. Unfortunately, there's just nobody accumulating the stock so prices just dropped under its own weight. I sold with a two fluc loss.

The stock I bought yesterday was LIHC. I was able to buy at 10.25 but when I saw the stock unable to rebound the whole day and looking very weak, I decided to sell at the same price. Out of nowhere, Chucky suddenly hit it all the way to 10.75 at the close. The lesson: with Chucky, don't even try to read the tape because it's useless. If you buy Chucky, you just have to believe.

I hijacked MA at the open because it looked very, very strong. I was thinking, maybe now that Gold was down last night, that it could be a contra-play. Unfortunately, after gapping up two flucs higher, nobody wanted to buy it up anymore. I sold with a one fluc loss. I can't understand why it even gapped up in the first place???

I loaded up on one other stock, which was very, very strong today. I really hope that that turns out ok.

I'm so stubborn and I'm banging my head against the wall for being so. One of my rules is to never buy a stock if it's not trending up. My decision to buy CYBR a few days ago and LIHC yesterday was definitely a violation of those rules. Had I just followed my rules, I would never have gotten hit today. MA was my gamble today and I have no regrets on that. With the stock that I bought today, if lose on that one, I will have no regrets because I did follow my rules on that one. The one thing that irks me the most is when I lose because I didn't follow my rules.

I feel pity to all those who got burned in MPI. It really is quite a puzzle to me how the stock could trade for a long time between 5.50 and 6.60, yet, the Company announcing a follow-on offering between 3.00 to 3.75. It's like the whole market was fooled. This just goes to shows us that price does not discount everything and that the market can sometimes be gullible.

Our market is quite weird. Why is it not following world markets? Nevertheless, it's still 50-50 right now. Next week will be pivotal to the next medium-term direction of the market.

% of portfolio in the market - 35%

% in cash - 65%

Year to date return - 56%

Sept 9, 2009

I lost coffee money in TA today. Tried to day-trade it but failed. I wasn't planning on buying anything anymore today but I couldn't resist buying one of the top losers for the day.

I think everybody got quite surprised by the drop in the market today. Even the Jap stocks, which have been strong the last few days, got affected as well. The next succeeding days will be pivotal to the next major direction of the market. We will know very, very soon if the market will climb towards 3100 or plunge towards 2500.

% of portfolio in the market - 35%

% in cash - 65%

Year to date return - 58%

Sept 8, 2009

I guess I'm guilty of being too bearish in the market in the last couple of days. I swear, I really thought that the market was already going to collapse last week but with prices again holding above their support levels, I guess the party continues. Still, although the short-term picture looks bullish once again, it is the medium-term that I am a bit concerned about.

I made coffee money in my remaining positions in TA today. I didn't want to use a momentum strategy in the market yet because the market is merely moving sideways, however, I am obviously under-positioned right now so I bought something quiet and have yet to be noticed by anyone.

% of portfolio in the market - 25%

% in cash - 75%

Year to date return - 58%

Sept 7, 2009

I don't know if you noticed it but there are eerie similarities with what is going on right now in the PSEi to what happened in 1998 to 1999. A comparison of the what happened then to what is happening now is shown on the two charts below:

1998 to 1999

2009

The red boxes on both charts are what I am talking about. You will notice that in both instances, the markets came from a huge decline. In 1998, the PSEi dropped to as low as 1075 before rallying back up to as high as 2632. That's a 145% climb in 10 months time. This time, the market formed a trough in October 2008 at the 1684 level and has currently formed a peak at 2906. That's a 72% climb in 11 months time.

It's hard to compare the two time-frames if you just look at the percentage of their climb. In order to compare the two time-frames more objectively, I overlayed in the charts above with their Fibonacci retracements lines. In 1999, the PSEi formed a peak just above its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. If the PSEi is going to play the exact same scenario as what it did in 1999, the PSEi will form a peak at exactly 3150.

Take note, after forming a peak at 2632 in 1999, the PSEi eventually dropped back down to the 978 level in 2001. Could this be deja vu? I sure hope not.

Sept 4, 2009

I was out of the market in the first 30 minutes of trading today. I sold all my MEG, AGI, FGEN and ORE. I really planned to just take advantage of the rebound in order to squeeze some profits from the market. I wasn't planning to trade the whole day anymore when, suddenly, something caught my eye - TA. I was able to day-trade it today but I left some just in case it continues to climb further on Tuesday.

Overall though, I am still quite worried of the condition of the markets. Notice that Gold is now almost at the $1,000 level. Why would Gold suddenly jump so much in the last couple of days, despite all the other commodity groups being down? Gold is a place for safe haven. Obviously, the market is getting spooked by something.

By the way, with PX, MA and LC not moving, despite Gold going up, we no longer have a Gold play in the market. "GEMINILI" are not Gold plays, they are JAP plays. Make sure you to know the difference.

% of portfolio in the market - 15%

% in cash - 85%

Year to date return - 58%

Sept 3, 2009

I took profits from all my LIHC today. I still can't believe that Chucky made me make money (hahaha).

I loaded up on the property sector and I bought a Lopez stock at the close.

I was also able to buyback my exotic mining stock today. :-)

The market appears to have formed a short-term trough today. This is it! The market will have to hold now or it won't. I'm crossing my fingers and my toes for tonight.

% of portfolio in the market - 60%

% in cash - 40%

Year to date return - 56%

Sept 2, 2009

Whew! I was saved by the bell, so to speak. Had the Dow collapsed Monday night, I would have been hit big time yesterday. I hardly did anything today but just sell my "butal" position in CMT. My remaining positions, I'm just holding.

Could we have already seen the very peak of this 6 month bull run? A friend of mine, Jaye Gonzales, who is also a technician, thinks that the PSEi is now headed towards the 2350 level. I would tend to agree with her. Unlike the previous corrections in the market in the last couple of months, the scary part about what is happening now is that a lot of markets seem to have peaked already like Shanghai and Crude Oil, just to name a few.

What I have learned in this bull-run:

1. I need to learn how to hold my positions longer in a bull market. In a bull market, one will need to follow the chart unlike in a bear market wherein a more intuitive approach is required;

2. I should never change my trading style. The minute my trading style no longer works, it means the market is turning;

3. Never buy and hold stocks where the "bugoys" are playing. I think my friend, longneck, knows what I'm talking about.

I made a more than 50% return in this bull market, which is just equal to the performance of the best mutual fund in the country. While that may seem great, I would just give myself a passing grade but far from being excellent. With quite a number of stocks doubling, tripling or even quadrupling from their lows, at the very least, I ought to have made a 100% return in order to qualify as being an excellent trader. But no regrets as the lessons I learned in this bull market will help me achieve a much better performance on the next bull market. The market is a never-ending learning curve and I am no exception to this.

% of portfolio in the market - 25%

% in cash - 75%

Year to date return - 54%

Sept 1, 2009

I have to admit, I was extremely nervous of my portfolio over the weekend. Very seldom to I go "all-in" cause I thought I had a legitimate buy signal in the market last Wednesday. With Shanghai collapsing yesterday, I was so sure that I was going to lose a lot today. I'm very, very happy that I only lost less than half of a percent in my portfolio today. Whew!

I liquidated all my non-moving and weak positions today. I sold my all MA, which I have been holding for a week now. I lost a couple of fluctuations in FPH (should have bought FGEN instead). My big blooper for the day was selling all my GEO at cost. The stock that balanced my portfolio was CMT, which I was able to sell near the highs. I hardly bought anything cause my objective for the day was capital preservation. However, I did average up on my other mining stock.

Despite the better than expected performance of the Dow last night, I have to admit, I am getting terribly nervous of this market already. From this point on, I will no longer chase prices and I will no longer go "all-in". I will be very happy already if I still am able to make another 5% in my portfolio from now until the end of this "bull-run".

% of portfolio in the market - 30%

% in cash - 70%

Year to date return - 54%