Miko's Blog for
Oct 29, 2010
CEB broke below its IPO price at 125.00 today. For the sake of those who
are still holding, you better hope that there is still something left
out of the stabilization fund, otherwise, we may see this one at the
century mark soon. I wonder how this will effect other upcoming IPOs.
Last week, it was the Fred Ramos stocks that were in play, today, it
seems like the Andrew Tan show has begun.
Didn't you ever wondered why JGS, DMC, FGEN and MPI were strong
yesterday while SMC, SECB, GMA7, MER and EDC were weak? It was announced
yesterday that the former will be included in the index while MPI's
weightings will be increased. The latter, on the other hand, were
removed from the index while MER and EDC's weightings will be decreased.
This will take effect on the Nov 8. In my opinion, these changes did not
help the bulls in the medium-term because I think JGS and DMC are
already relatively high while SMC, GMA7 and MER have only begun to
Some people are quite concerned about the behavior of the markets come
Nov 3, which is the date of the next FED Meeting. They think that the
market will sell on the news on the announcement of the FED's
quantitative easing. Somehow, I'm just not too worried about the markets
coming into that event, especially if the markets continue to sell-off
already before that date.
Happy All Saints Day Tsupiteros! :-)
Oct 28, 2010
One of the strongest stocks in the market today was JGS but did anyone
notice ATR Kim-Eng selling a lot? Did anyone also notice that ATR
Kim-Eng was the top seller in CEB today? Could that be Big John himself?
Can you just imagine how much he is making in CEB assuming his cost was
par value? Just 12,500% return on investment. JGS is kind of
disappointing cause that's just a 2,500% return on investment. I think
you are under-performing Mr. Gokongwei. :-)
Oct 27, 2010
Why did SMC go up a lot? Because the market found out that Mr. Winston
Garcia bought 5,000 shares last week. Can you just imagine what would
happen had he bought 6,000 shares instead?! :-)
All the Fred Ramos Stocks are moving. Last week, it was AT and APO. Now,
it's VUL, OV and UPM. UPM closed quite strong today as Alakor
Securities, a suspected broker of Mr. Ramos, bought at 0.016. I wonder
if something is really brewing with these stocks or are these issues
simply affected by what happened to AT and APO.
All markets are at a standstill right now. I guess everyone's is now
waiting for what's going to happen on Nov 2 & 3. Nov 2 will be elections
in the US while Nov 3 will be the FED Meeting, wherein the FED is
expected to announce another round of quantitative easing. The big
question now is, will the markets sell on the news or will it even be a
trigger for another ascent?
Oct 26, 2010
I'm quite amazed by AT as prices are now nearing the psychological 20.00
level. Rumor has it that a group of fund managers were invited by Mr.
Ramos (all expenses paid) to visit their mines in Cebu during the
weekend. I'm sure Mr. Ramos will not invite them if he has nothing
impressive to show. BDO crossed 142 million shares at 19.60 today. Could
they have finally converted all of AT's debt into shares already? This
is both bullish and bearish. It's bullish because the company's interest
payments would decrease but it may also be bearish because the creditor
may now act as an overhang in the stock in the open market.
Congratulations to all subscribers of the Cebu Pacific IPO. At the very
least, you were able to make 3% on your investment if you sold at
129.00. Or, you were able to make 6% on your investment if you sold at
133.00. That's good enough, given that your holding period was less than
one month. Can its price continue to go higher? Maybe, given its
behavior today, but the price action is still artificial today because
of the buy orders coming from the stabilization fund via Deutsche Regis
and JP Morgan, who are the lead underwriters. Its real behavior will
only happen once the stabilization fund gets depleted. Give it a week
JGS climbed all the way up to 27.00 because of Cebu Pacific. IP is
moving because its subsidiary, IP Converge Data Center, will do an IPO
soon. I wonder if NI or GEO will move too because of the Nickel Asia
IPO. I'm starting to get nervous with all these IPOs. It can only mean
one thing ...
Oct 23, 2010
In the last couple of days, HDI Securities have been selling all sorts
of JAP stocks - GEO, PO and ORE. Today, Angping Securities as well as SB
Equities (a suspected ally of JAP), was selling out of ACR. I bet some
people saw what was going on and concluded that there was already a
"war" going on in the board. The truth of the matter is, most of our
clients in HDI Securities are using counter-trend strategies, meaning,
they sell when prices are strong. Those sell orders in GEO, PO and ORE
were from different clients and were definitely not in any way induced
or encouraged by us. On the other hand, the big seller of ACR yesterday
was SB Equities, who was a foreign entity. If I remember correctly, this
person bought a lot below 0.90. Congratulations to you, whoever you are.
The thing is, even if there was a "war" going on between JAP stocks and
ACR, it really doesn't matter to both camps. JAP knows that HDI
Securities only has so much shares to sell in his stocks. And HDI
Securities know that JAP only has so much shares in ACR to sell. There
is one particular JAP stock though that HDI Securities has a substantial
amount of shares. The stock hasn't really moved for quite a while now.
Guess which stock that is? ... the thing is, my boss in HDI Securities
and JAP are actually good friends, although JAP probably is having a bit
of a tampo with my boss right now because of HDI's selling in PO. What
JAP doesn't know is that HDI clients and traders have substantial
holdings in PO. What can I say, we were a big fan of Mr. Villar during
the elections ... don't get me wrong though, we still voted for Mr.
Oct 21, 2010
guess everybody has heard that there was a bomb threat in the PSE this
morning, which was why trading was suspended for more than two hours.
Rumors are circulating that it was Lolo who called the bomb threat. He
was a bit frustrated daw because he hasn't bought back everything that
he sold at the highs. If the bomb threat don't work, he might just
announce another SRO daw (haha).
Someone from Angping did get scared of the bomb threat this morning as
they suddenly sold ORE heavily when trading resumed by 1pm.
For the first time in a long time, it wasn't HDI Securities who was the
top buyer of ACR today. Who was the top buyer? A foreign entity from
Macquarie. Hmmm, maybe he thought he was buying Ayala Corp (haha).
Oct 20, 2010
The Anatomy of the Lolo
Stage 1 - The Accumulation Stage
a. Prices consolidate within a range.
b. Insiders quietly and patiently accumulate shares.
c. This is the best area in the chart to buy a Lolo
Stage 2 - The Big Move Up Stage
a. Bullish News comes out (e.g. Zijin acquires 20%
stake in Far Southeast Gold).
b. Momentum traders rush in to bid up the stock.
c. This is where the biggest price upswings will
Stage 3 - The Distribution Stage
a. I am guessing that Insiders may try to hold up the
price above its support for as long as they could in order to sell as
much shares as they can at high prices.
b. Prices may probably consolidate within a range for
c. The public, having missed the big move stage, will
probably start buying any small dips that they see.
Stage 4 - The Shake-out everyone Stage
a. I am guessing that, because the insider sales are
becoming obvious already, insiders have no choice but to sell down and
break support levels.
b. I am guessing again that once their selling is
complete, bad news comes out (e.g. Announcement of a stock rights
c. This is where everybody gets shaken out and sells.
Length of a Typical Lolo Cycle from Trough to Peak to
Trough - One and a Half
The question now is, where is LC in its cycle now?
Below is its current chart.
Opinions about current cycle:
1. Accumulation stage already occurred from Aug 2090
to Aug 2010.
2. Big Move stage already occurred from Sept 7, 2010
to Sept 24, 2010.
3. Where is the distribution phase? V-reversal would
probably indicate that distribution occurred on the way down.
4. Announcement of stock rights offering probably
indicates that insiders may have already sold.
History of Stock Rights Offerings of Lolo stocks:
2005 - 1:5 @ P0.20 (ex-date - Sept 16, 2005)
2006 - 1:8 @ P0.20 (ex-date - Aug 11, 2006)
2008 - 1:7 @ P0.25 (ex-date - Mar 18, 2008)
2010 - 1:3.3 @ P0.30 (ex-date - to be announced)
2006 - 1:2 @ P0.015 (Aug 25, 2006)
2010 - 1:8 @ P0.015 (Mar 5, 2010)
Don't you think there is something wrong when a
company declares stock rights offering almost every other year?
Obviously, minor shareholders are pissed but, what can they do, if the
major shareholder is willing to do it? Could there be insider trading
wherein the major shareholders sell ahead of the announcement of a stock
rights offering? If there is, then, someone could be liable for that.
Minor stockholders should make sure that the major shareholder indeed
puts money in the company once the stock rights offering is done.
Other than that, there's not much one can do to stop
the Lolo cycle. The best that the individual investor can do is learn
about it, think like an insider and just follow Lolo (if you can).
I have to say, the Lolo cycle is both amazing and
irritating at the same time. Why mine for Gold when the Gold mine is
right here in the PSE?! Double or even triple your money every one and a
half years. Congratulations Lolo, you've done it again!
Oct 19, 2010
ACR and JAP Stocks
1st half EPS
Est. Full Year EPS
Est. 2010 P/E
Since we have this ongoing issue right now between ACR and the JAP
stocks, I decided to just do a comparison from a fundamental
perspective. The table above shows the true picture. No hype, no lies
and no fuzz. From a P/E perspective, ACR is the cheapest and NI/GEO are
the most expensive. From a Price to Book perspective, ACR is still the
cheapest and GEO is the most expensive.
So, how can some people like me have the guts to promote a stock that is
currently trading at 34x P/E or even a stock that is trading with a
negative 900x P/E? Aren't those stocks way too expensive? At current
prices, yes, they are. However, the market is discounting
projects/events/developments of the company, which may improve its
earnings in the future. Of course, for the current valuation to be
justified, the required growth in EPS should be realistic. If the
growth required in order to achieve valuation which is at par with the
market is too much, then, fundamentals will not be able to catch with
its current valuation and prices could potentially drop in the future.
Below is a table of the required growth in each of the companies'
earnings in order to be at par with the market. ACR would only require a
growth of 511% in order to trade at 15x P/E. NI, on the other hand,
would require a growth of 13,500% in order to trade at 15x P/E.
% growth required
Earnings based on
to achieve valuation
1st half performance
to trade at 15x P/E
at par with market
wife was asking me last night, so if fundamental analysis like P/E
ratios is not the basis for knowing when to buy or sell a stock, what
is? A stock will only drop if people are willing to sell down prices and
a stock will only rise if people are willing to bid up prices. Thus, for
a jockey, things such as P/E and book value does not matter. What
matters are the demand and supply of a stock and that people BELIEVE. If
people believes, then, prices can reach irrationally high valuations. If
no one believes, then, prices can stay undervalued for a very long time.
Admittedly, JAP is good at what he does because he understands this
concept very, very well.
Let me correct my statement above, there is another way for prices to go
up. You just need a lot of money. The problem for the jockey is, if no
one believes, he would have successfully pushed up the price but he will
not be able to sell unless he pulls the price lower.
Now, you understand why I am a technician and not a fundamentalist.
From a Technical Analysis point of view, which for me is an even more
objective form of analysis, almost all of them are trending up except
for NI and GEO, which are simply consolidating within a range. Thus, all
those stocks can be considered a "buy the dips" except for NI and GEO.
The race is now on to be the first to reach 15x P/E....or never! (hahaha)
Oct 18, 2010
just came back last night from a short vacation in Singapore. I planned
that vacation of mine since months ago because I thought that the Cebu
Pacific IPO would make this market collapse. Well, it did not result to
that scenario because hardly anyone is subscribing to that IPO. But, I
have to say, the whole market looks quite iffy right now.
just read an email this morning about someone recommending all the JAP
stocks and trying to dissuade everyone into buying ACR by stating that
the stock will drop back down to 1.00. Obviously, whoever this person
is, probably has a ton of JAP stocks and may probably be looking to sell
these stocks, which is why he is recommending them. On the other hand,
he is probably discouraging everyone from buying ACR because he wants to
buy it. Natatawa na lang ako. Kindly check Citiseconline.com in the last
few weeks and see who the top buyer is. The
only way for ACR to drop now is if the big holder of the stock will
everyone, who got stuck in ACR in its big rally last year, have sold
already. Up to this morning, HDI Securities was still a net buyer of the
stock. We have absolutely no done-thru selling. We simply like the stock
because it is in an industry where there will be a lot of growth (the
Power sector in Mindanao) and the owners have a big pile of cash coming
in via their sale of Indophil.
Below are the top net buyers and sellers of ACR from Aug 1, 2010:
To whomever wrote that email, here's
what you do, try short-selling ACR right now to prove your point. Diba,
sabi mo, babalik sa piso? :-)
Oct 14, 2010
Remember what happened before when RSA and MVP were fighting for control
for Meralco and Philex? The exact same thing is happening with Indophil
right now. At the moment, the battle is being won by RSA, however, the
war isn't over yet. In an article in the BusinessWorld newspaper today, http://www.bworld.com.ph/main/content.php?id=19439,
Mr. Robbins, who is the Resources Director of Indophil, stated that "...
it doesn't stop another party from making an offer". Knowing the history
of RSA and MVP, I don't think Mr. Pangilinan will give up that easily.
My guess is that Mr. Pangilinan will still eventually win the war, at a
price, of course.
Obviously, Advanced Christmas Regalo
(ACR) will be a beneficiary, especially if a bidding war occurs as the
Alcantaras will probably get a bigger windfall if that happens. Philex
will also benefit as MVP will most likely place Indophil, which owns a
35% stake in the Tampakan mines, under it. Philex will thus be able to
replace their existing mines, which will already get depleted in a few
I'll be leaving for a short vacation
in the next couple of days, thus, I won't be able to write anything here
in my blog until Monday next week. In the meantime, just continue to
enjoy this bull market and be sure to buy "presents" for your kids. :-)
Oct 13, 2010
Last night, I was already expecting the Dow to collapse after seeing the
Dow drop by 80 points at the opening. I was quite surprised to see it
recover. From the way I see it now, the Dow is, for the moment,
"no-risk". If economic numbers are good, then, the market views it
bullishly. If economic numbers are bad, the more likely that the Fed
will do a second-round of Quantitative Easing on its next meeting, thus,
the market views it as bullish as well.
believe the PSEi has bottomed-out today, thus, I went "all-in". :-)
Although Gold has indeed formed a short-term peak a few days ago, the
fact that it isn't dropping up to now may be a good sign for the miners.
Second only to Angping Securities, HDI Securities was the top seller of
PO again today. I guess it's very obvious what our firm is doing right
now, it is selling PO and buying ACR. Sorry guys, Aaron is such a liar,
marami pa daw pala (hahahaha).
Why is ACR very strong right now? Because what is good for Indophil is
good for Alsons Corp. and what is good for Alsons Corp. must also be
good for ACR. Take note, the party hasn't even started yet. Christmas
party only starts once the Indophil sale gets done. By the way, does
anyone have any idea how much free float is left? hihihi
Oct 12, 2010
PSEi dropped by 52 points today. Could this be the beginning of the end?
The Dow hasn't even corrected back down yet.
was able to rebound back up today but, here's the thing with this stock,
it's the type of stock wherein it goes up for a few days, then, sleeps
for the next 6 to 12 months. Will it be different this time around?
Sorry, my friend Aaron lied to me yesterday. Meron pa daw pala pero
konti na lang daw talaga. You're such a liar Aaron! (hehe)
was quite intrigued by what was going on in ACR today. Wealth
Securities, after selling most of his positions at the mid to high 1.30s
levels, suddenly sold down by five fluctuations to 1.30. Usually, when
someone does that to a stock, it means he already sold the last of his
positions. I know because I'm guilty of that too sometimes (hahaha).
After a couple of seconds, something very interesting happened, broker
121 (Macquarie Securities) bought almost a million shares at 1.36. Upon
checking the PSE quotation report, I found out that it was indeed a
foreign buyer. Hmmm...
Oct 11, 2010
Despite the worse than expected jobs report in the US last Friday, the
Dow still managed to close the day up 57 points. I guess the bad news
just further fueled the possibility of another "Quantitative Easing" by
the Fed on Nov 3. So, does this mean that the skies are now all clear up
to Nov 3? I don't know but somehow, I'm just not that confident of being
a bull right now.
made a sharp u-turn today after forming a peak at the 7.31 level. My
friend, who had tons of it, sold all of his remaining shares today. He
got scared na daw when he saw that Angping Securities sold 4 million
shares last Friday. Congratulations Mr. Aaron Lee!!! :-)
AT, on the other hand, went wild today as the company stated that it is
projecting US$22.5 million (roughly almost P1 billion) earnings for the
year. Its 3rd quarter earnings will be officially announced on Nov 19.
Congratulations to all miners of AT! :-)
Oct 9, 2010
lot of people have been asking me what I think of the Cebu Pacific IPO.
Well, for one thing, I do not personally know anyone who would subscribe
to this IPO. I myself am not subscribing to the IPO for the following
IPO is very, very expensive.
It's P/E ratio is 22x 2010 earnings and its price to book is a whopping
10x since it's book value is a mere P12.45 per share. The market is
currently trading at 16x P/E and with an average price to book of just
IPO is huge. The number of
shares being offered are 186,637,200. Multiply that amount with the
offering price of P125.00 and you get a total offered amount of roughly
P23 billion. Who's going to buy P23 billion worth of Cebu Pacific on or
after the listing date? Take note, the entire P23 billion worth of
shares will be tradeable on Oct 25. Although there will most likely be a
"stabilization fund" to hold up the price, what happens when the
stabilization fund gets depleted?
than 80% of the shares being offered are secondary shares.
Secondary shares are shares held by existing shareholders. Thus, of the
P23 billion that will be raised thru this IPO, only P3.8 billion is
going to Cebu Pacific for their operations. The rest of the proceeds
from the IPO are going to Gokongwei and his friends.
you still decide to subscribe, I would suggest that you just try to make
a small profit and get out on the listing day.
my opinion, there are a lot of better issues to choose from from
existing listed stocks in the market.
Oct 8, 2010
have to hand it to Mr. JAP. More than double your money in four days'
time and with P53 million changing hands today in PO. Wow!
Congratulations to all believers! Anyway, my friend was now in awe as to
how much money he was already making right now. He sold a little bit
more of his remaining PO. Konti na lang daw, promise! :-)
Gold and TEL (PHI) appears to have formed a short-term peak last night.
The Dollar, on the other hand, may have formed a short-term trough.
Could this also mean a short-term peak in the equity markets as well?
We'll know tonight after the announcement of an all-important jobs
report in the US.
Ever wondered why PX dropped so much today? It wasn't just because of
the drop in Gold, it was because of this announcement in the Australian
Stock Exchange:http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01106413 ...
Effectively, Ramon Ang had just made a coup d'etat to Manny Pangilinan's
plan to acquire Indophil. The Alcantaras are now one step closer to
receiving their windfall, which could potentially be used for the
operations of Advanced Christmas Regalo. :-)
Oct 7, 2010
Market was up by 48 points today but on relatively low value turnover.
There were even more decliners than advancers. I wonder if foreign funds
were net buyers today or net sellers? Hmmm ... Some issues are starting
to become "whipsawish" and that's normally not a good sign. Let's
see....I guess still expect up unless proven otherwise by the market.
very good friend was very, very ecstatic again today as he was able to
sell more PO today. Don't worry, konti na lang daw. :-)
Ever wondered why ACR was very strong today? There was disclosure
yesterday that they changed their contact number. What more if they
change their address?!! (hihihihi)
Oct 6, 2010
I'm very, very happy for my friend, who was able to sell most of his PO
today. Could the stock actually have been invaded by JAP as well? Upon
watching how JAP operates in the last few months, it has been his
signature move to form long white candles in the first few days of his
stock's uptrend. Could this just be the beginning of the move? I'm still
thinking how to add the letter "P" to the word SONG. How about "SPONGe"?
"ping PONGS" perhaps? Don't worry JAP, I'll try to think of something
better sounding by tomorrow. :-)
Gold finally hit my 1350 target today. Could this be the end of the run
for Gold in the short-term? I don't know. It doesn't feel that way but,
from where I stand, any gains of Gold in the short-term from this point
on will just be a bonus to me.
beloved ACR was quiet today and was even down a bit for the day. Maybe
it's waiting for something perhaps?
Coming into today, I was long by around 70% in my portfolio. I wanted to
go "all-in" today because the Dow appears to have broken out of this
range already last night but, instead, I got whipsawed by a couple of
issues today. Somehow this always happens to me when the Dow climbs up
by a lot. Let's all hope the Dow drops a bit tonight. Perhaps, our
market will become much stronger by tomorrow. :-)
Fearless forecast - Dow 11,400 coming!!!
Oct 5, 2010
A friend of mine,
who has been stuck with PO for the past seven months, was finally given
a key by Angping Securities to get out today with a small profit. My
friend says thanks to that someone in broker 110. :-)
JAP was probably
singing a sad "SONG" this morning.
Did anyone see the
close of AGI today? DBP-Daiwa seems to be very, very generous nowadays.
loves ACR! hehe
Oct 4, 2010
Market was up 76
points today but, I don't know if it's just me but, I just didn't feel
that it was up by 76 points. I expected foreign funds to be heavy buyers
today but, when I saw the PSE quotation report, they were just almost
even for the day.
The big story of
the day though was JAP stocks. Welcome to the Jerry Angping show.
Congratulations to all believers!
Jerry has his
SONGs (Sta. Lucia, ORE, NiHao and GEO) while HDI has our Advanced
Christmas Regalo. :-)
Oct 3, 2010
Will September Rally Fizzle? History May
Offer a Clue - CNBC
Even as economic fundamentals and regulatory uncertainty line up
against stocks, Wall Street does have one thing in its favor for
Despite an improbable 9 percent rally in September - historically
one of the market's worst months - past trends suggest that a good
performance in the month often leads to more strength in October.
There have been six occasions since 1928 when the Standard & Poor's
500 has gained more than 5 percent in September, and they have been
followed by an average gain of 0.7 percent in October, according to
And in the 14 instances in the past 30 years when the S&P has a
positive September, an October gain has followed nine times, with an
average rise of 1.64 percent.
While each month and each year are certainly different, stock market
bulls at least have something to bolster their argument even after
such an odd September rally.
"October is frequently tagged as a fearful month for investors,"
said Sam Stovall, chief equity strategist at S&P, in a note to
clients. "One reason is because investors painted October as a
'crash' month after the Great Crash of 1929 that was reinforced by
the Crash of '87."
But the perception hasn't held up. Stovall notes that since 1945
October actually has been the market's best month.
S&P, in fact, on Wednesday raised its 12-month projection for the
500 index to 1270 from 1200 due to seasonal factors and the dissipation
of double-dip economic fears.
Of the three major averages, the Nasdaq tech barometer has done best
during September, rising 64 percent of the time over the past 22
years, and following that up with October gains 57 percent of the
The Dow has fared worst, closing up only 39 percent of the time in
September and then following that up with October gains in 54
percent of the time in the past 61 years.
Though the market moved sideways this past week, investors seemed to
have moved away-again-from double-dip fears. Now, they're back into
a mindset where as long as economic numbers beat humble
expectations, that's a reason to buy.
"The market always does the opposite of what everybody expects.
Everybody expected the market to sell off in September and it sells
of in August instead," says Keith Springer, president of Capital
Financial Advisory Services in Sacramento, Calif. "The (economic)
stats aren't nearly as bad as the worst case could have been. We're
in a market now where as long as it's not horrible, it's pretty
Investor sentiment surveys, such as those from the American
Association of Individual Investors, are showing strong bullish
sentiment, with nearly 43 percent of respondents indicating they
think the market will go higher.
While such surveys are often contrarian indicators, that was not the
case for September when optimism remained intact and so did the
stock market's move higher.
"I don't think we've exhausted ourselves," says Todd Salamone,
senior vice president of research at Schaeffer's Investment Research
in Cincinnati. "Looking at some of the sentiment indicators over the
past nine months, whether it was the options market or polls from
active investment managers, they weren't anywhere near the levels
that have preceded corrections. It does suggest there's firepower on
Money has been coming in off the sidelines at a steady pace, with
$2.8 trillion parked in money market funds as of Sept. 29, according
to the Investment Company Institute. That's well below the more than
$4 trillion that had been out of the market during the worst of the
Stock allocations total 55.2 percent of investor portfolios, the
highest total since April, the latest AAII numbers show.
Portfolio managers and hedge funds who missed the September rally
could be tempted now to start deploying cash in hopes of playing
catch-up, another factor that could continue the autumn surge.
"You have a lot of professional investors and managers that are
trailing their benchmarks. September just exacerbated that move,"
says Gary Flam, portfolio manager at Bel Air Investment Advisors in
Los Angeles. "As we get closer to year-end, there definitely is a
push by professional investors to chase rallies and then want to see
pullbacks so they can get invested."
Yet Flam says he doesn't see strong levels of conviction either way
in the market. And indeed, just four weeks ago the AAII respondents
were indicating a level of bearishness not seen since just before
the market found its March 2009 lows.
"At the end of the day our method of investing is longer-term," Flam
says. "So we're trying to think of not necessarily what gets us to
year-end but what gets us to year-end 2011. If we get that call
right, because that is a bigger call, then we're going to be doing
the right thing and our investors are going to be happy."