Miko's Blog for Oct 2009

I took profits from all my positions today because I'm going abroad tomorrow and I don't want to leave any open positions while I'm away. I sold all my CPM and WEB with some nice profits.

It was a very interesting day for us there in HDI today as everyone of us got caught in FAF. A friend of ours, who doesn't usually buy up aggressively, suddenly bid it up and bought in size. We were thinking, hey, this guy wouldn't buy this aggressively if he didn't know something. So, we all followed him. Unfortunately, the market simply disagreed with him and we all had to lick our wounds at the end of the day. It's a good thing I only bought a small position in the stock and I was able to cut my losses before it got out of hand. I lost coffee money in that one today. I don't know who's "smarter". He, who tried to push the stock up, or, me, who followed him. :-) FAF will probably be one of the last "ceilings" in this bull market....by the way, HDI will be looking for KingsPower's office today. :-)

With regards to the market, another friend of mine, who has also been quite bearish of this market for quite some time now, were asking me what is the title of the film about Michael Jackson? Incidentally, that movie is having its grand opening today. :-)

% of portfolio in the market - 3%

% in cash - 97%

Year to date return - 67%

Oct 28, 2009

What a day?!! I don't think I've ever had so much whipsaws in one day!

I lost one fluc in 3 issues. Sold at "same price" in 2 issues. And I only made money in 1 issue. The GEO that I bought the other day was one of those that I sold at "same price".

The only thing I did right today was to buy WEB at the lows.

With the way the market behaved today, I made sure that the only positions I had left are those wherein the current price is way above my cost already.

That's it for me in these ultra-basura plays. Today was my first losing day in so many days with these issues. I think the market is telling me something already. With so many people getting burned and so many issues trying to hit the ceiling but couldn't, I don't think it's still wise to try and go for it anymore. For those who aren't able to hit the "ceiling" in this round, better wait for the next bull market to do it (haha). I feel pity to all those who got stuck at the highs. The only thing you can do now is to cut your losses on the rallies or wait for the next bull market to recover your capital.

As for the market, I don't want to comment anymore. You know how I stand. :-)

% of portfolio in the market - 33%

% in cash - 66%

Year to date return - 65%

Oct 27, 2009

For a Tuesday, I had pretty good day today.

I was able to day-trade PRIM, CEI and MVC today. I made coffee money on all of them. I lost coffee money in GEO.

I just held on to the positions that I bought yesterday. I'm still trying to figure out if this market is a glass half-full or a glass half empty.

% of portfolio in the market - 43%

% in cash - 57%

Year to date return - 66%

Oct 26, 2009

Did the PSEi just climb by 200 points today or is it just me? (hehe)

I sold my SECB for some coffee money. I was able to day-trade ACR and SUN today for a nice 1% gain each on the portfolio. I loaded up on some mining stocks today.

The majority of my gains today was from PRIM, which already opened almost limit up. I "hijacked" it at the open and I got done at 2.50. The funny thing is, I should have hijacked it on the buy side, not on the sell side (hahaha) but, no regrets, I'm happy with making 7% on the portfolio in that trade.

I'm pleasantly surprised that the Asian markets seem to be unmindful of the Dow's performance last Friday night. I'll be damned though if the Dow climbs up by 100 points again tonight. If that happens, I think I would need to call a shrink already. :-)

% of portfolio in the market - 43%

% in cash - 57%

Year to date return - 66%

Oct 23, 2009

I hate this sideways market. This is exactly how I felt last year when the market was trading between 1800 and 2000. Would you believe that the majority of my losses last year did not come when prices when trending down from 3900 to 1700? The majority of my losses came when the market was trading between 1800 and 2000. Why? Because I knew that the market was bottoming out during that time but, in the process, I was getting whipsawed in between. If I'm not mistaken, it's the same thing that is happening right now, only it's at the opposite end of the spectrum.

I don't know what feels worse: you buy and prices go down, or, you sell and prices go up? I feel like a shmuck for panicking yesterday. I can't believe what had just happened in the last 24 hours.

I had a pretty good trading again today. I was able to day-trade MED and ANI. I bought a small position in PRIM and a pretty significant position in a bank.

My original theory on the Dow is intact after all. What is my theory? At this point, there are a lot of doubters like me of this rally on the Dow. As long as there are doubters out there, the Dow will continue to climb higher. How can this insanity end? There is only one way: the Dow will break above its resistance at 10200 and will make a parabolic move to the upside (three consecutive days or more of three digit gains). Once this happens, all the skeptics will become bullish and it will finally end this insanity.

The ultra-basura stocks are back in play. The objective of every Tsupitero next week should be to find the next "ceiling". These plays only come once in a blue moon so we better make the most out of it. More importantly, one will have to know when to get out. I'm sure the insiders and long-term traders in these stocks are now laughing all the way to the bank. My friend made a killing in these high-flyers right now. His formula is to buy these high-flyers in "quiet times" and sell them during times of euphoria. Looks very simple but it's definitely easier said than done.

% of portfolio in the market - 33%

% in cash - 66%

Year to date return - 58%

Oct 22, 2009

Despite our market being very weak the last couple of days, I maintained a relatively big position. Why? Because I was still bullish on the Dow and I was expecting it to climb up towards 10500, if not higher. Besides, the stocks that I were holding were quite strong. However, after what the Dow did last night, I would tend to think that it will drop back down towards the 9600 area instead, if not lower. Could last night's high be the very peak of this 7-month bull market already?

With the PSE breaking below its support as well, I panicked and just sold everything. I sold all my NI and LIHC with minimal losses so I'm already happy with that. I made a mistake in NI by buying a huge position in that one. I know that the stock was already trading near support this morning but I couldn't afford my position to drop any lower than where it traded today. What I did this morning was to simply protect the gains that I've made in the last two weeks.

The PSEi just confirmed a bull-trap in the market today when it broke below the 2915 level. While this doesn't necessarily mean that prices will trend down, it does indicate that there is an inability for the market to go up. I'm quite surprised why there were still so many aggressive buyers this morning, despite the general market being so ugly already. I don't know, maybe I'm over-reacting once again. I've been looking for a peak in this market since mid-August. I'm sure one of these days, I will finally be right (hahaha).

% of portfolio in the market - 3%

% in cash - 97%

Year to date return - 57%

Oct 21, 2009

My timing is impeccable! Just when I have a big position in the market, that's when the market tanks. I hate sideways! Let's just hope this sideways doesn't turn into a big bad bear.

My experimental blue-chip, which I bought yesterday, was TEL. Since MER appears to have peaked at the 226.00 level, I was thinking that "they" might hit it up in New York. However, with the way the market moved today, I just had to lessen my exposure in the market so I sold it again today. My ultra-basura stock, which I bought yesterday, was MED. I ended up selling it as well today. It's a good thing I only bought a miniscule position on that one. I did buy something today though. I averaged up on my "most-hated" stock today.

The ultra-basura plays are over. I pity all those who got hit in the last couple of days. I think the market left a lot of casualties there.

For the bulls to stay alive, "they" will need to do some magic on TEL tonight, otherwise...

% of portfolio in the market - 60%

% in cash - 40%

Year to date return - 59%

Oct 20, 2009

For a Tuesday, it was another pretty good day for me as my only position went up a lot. I averaged up on it today and is now more than 40% of my entire portfolio. I wanted to put more of my cash into work but I didn't want to add a lot of risk on the portfolio so, what I did was I experimented on a blue chip today. I also bought a miniscule position in an extremely volatile stock, which have gone down already in the last three days. I got whipsawed a bit in PIP. Finally, I also bought a small position in my most hated but most profitable stock.

Market is neither here nor there. I guess as long as it doesn't trend down, there will be selective plays every now and then.

% of portfolio in the market - 75%

% in cash - 25%

Year to date return - 60%

Oct 19, 2009

I had a pretty good day in the market today care of MER. I was able to day-trade it with a big position and end up with a P10.00 gain. Normally, I would hold on to my position in MER but since tomorrow is a Tuesday, I decided to just day-trade it (haha).

I bought a high-flyer today. I was able to day-trade MRC a couple of times but I got hit a bit in some other exotic third-liners.

MER was able to save the day for me and for the PSEi. Let's just hope it's enough to jump-start the bulls.

% of portfolio in the market - 23%

% in cash - 77%

Year to date return - 60%

Oct 16, 2009

Welcome to Basura Wonderland!!!

I did target shooting in the market today. I day-traded about 8 issues today, including the MED that I bought yesterday - I made money in 4 stocks, sold same price on 2 stocks and lost one fluc in 2 stocks. Overall, I made some coffee money for the day (haha).

Today's behavior is a sign. You need to differentiate the "real plays" to those that are simply taking advantage of the situation. Take note, 90% of those that went up today should not be trusted. I wouldn't trust any "ceilings" anymore right now. Be careful Tsupiteros!

% of portfolio in the market - 3%

% in cash - 97%

Year to date return - 59%

Oct 15, 2009

After more than a week of winnings, the law of averages finally caught up with me and gave me a dose of reality today.

I was quite aggressive today cause I was thinking that the market can climb to 3000 already today. Unfortunately, I think everybody got caught flat-footed by the reaction of the market. The only thing I did right today was to sell my NI at the highs. I had no plans of selling my FPH today but when I saw that it was very weak, I was forced to sell it at 42.00. After being so strong yesterday, why the sudden weakness? I averaged up on my high-flyer (CPM) but I ended up selling at the lows to protect my average cost (damn, those insiders caught me). I got too aggressive with MEG and I lost one fluc. I bought WEB but I ended up selling it at the same price. I wasn't planning to buy anything anymore but something caught my eye just before the close.

To say that today's market behavior was a disappointment is definitely an understatement. Something is definitely wrong with this market. It's as if no one wants to buy higher anymore. The Plunge Protection Team (PPT) is trying to manipulate PHI in New York but no one here is biting. The PSEi broke above its major resistance at 2900. Why isn't it trending upwards? There is only one way for this market to trend up, the foreign funds, who have been selling since August, needs to buyback higher. If they don't buy up, I just can't see how the locals can do it alone. Can we still go to 3200?

% of portfolio in the market - 10%

% in cash - 90%

Year to date return - 59%

Oct 14, 2009

It was another very good day for me in the markets today.

I sold almost all my NI for another 2% gain in the portfolio. I bought tons of FPH. I bought another high-flyer. My only regret for the day was getting whipsawed one fluc in ANI. Overall, I'm happy for the day.

I wonder what's up with Lopez? Something is definitely brewing. Could the stake of Lopez in MER have been sold already? If so, at what price? Will there be a tender offer in MER? The main play appears to be in BPC and FPH.

% of portfolio in the market - 50%

% in cash - 50%

Year to date return - 61%

Oct 13, 2009

For a Tuesday, I had a pretty good day in the market today.

I was able to sell my last batch of WEB at 15.50. I lost a bit in PAX but I was able to load up one just one stock today that was able to go up above my cost. No, I didn't touch CPM at all. :-)

% of portfolio in the market - 30%

% in cash - 70%

Year to date return - 59%

Oct 12, 2009

I think I may have gotten whipsawed in WEB today. I sold 2/3rds of my entire position in that stock. I was still able to make 2% on my portfolio, despite getting whipsawed today though. I made some profits on ANI, whch I bought last Friday. I got whipsawed one fluc in both NI and BPC (yeah, I should have bought MER instead).

My request that MER break out of its range for the market to trend up happened today. However, the problem now is, the only blue chip left that was still strong was MER. I sure hope this "breakout" isn't a trap.

For the last few weeks, I have always been unlucky with Tuesday. When I'm fully loaded and it was a Tuesday, the market goes down. Last Tuesday, when I hardly had any position, the market bottomed-out. Tonight, I am guessing that the Dow will go up by 3 digits simply because tomorrow is a Tuesday and I hardly have any positions anymore (hahaha).

% of portfolio in the market - 15%

% in cash - 85%

Year to date return - 58%

Oct 9, 2009

I made money in the market again today care of my MPI, which I was able to sell at 3.75. However, I got whipsawed by one fluc in BPC, which I thought broke out above its range already. I also lost one fluc in LOTO but that was offsett by a two fluc gain in the CYBR, which I bought yesterday. I tried to day-trade CPM but I was only able to make one fluc. I wasn't planning on buying anything anymore but something caught my eye just before the close.

CPM was incredible! I bet all those who were able to get private-placements on this one have already taken profits by now. At its close today of 4.05, this stock is now worth P11.4 billion. Could this company actually be worth more than Atlas, which is just worth P9.5 billion at current levels. Either the insiders of this stock are very, very smart and have something up their sleeves, or, are simply trying to be very, very greedy. Be careful Tsupiteros. This is certainly not for those who have heart problems.

The market is now in a correction mode in the short-term. From the way I see it, there is just one way for the market to head towards 3200 or higher - MER must break above 200.

% of portfolio in the market - 40%

% in cash - 60%

Year to date return - 56%

Oct 8, 2009

I had a pretty good day in the market today. I was able to day-trade VLL and most of my existing positions went up. I sold my FGEN because it was quite weak. I bought small positions in a couple of basuras.

PLDT and JAP stocks have begun to correct but the laggard basura stocks have started to climb. I guess as long as this rotation continues, we will continue to get dizzy. :-)

% of portfolio in the market - 65%

% in cash - 40%

Year to date return - 55%

Oct 7, 2009

I feel quite embarrassed for calling a peak in the market in the last couple of weeks. Lesson learned: If one is bearish but prices doesn't drop, then, it must be a "Buy". I credit the GFIs for their hocus-pocus on PLDT. Still, this uptrend will be different from the previous uptrends we've had. It won't be across the board and one will really need to choose carefully what stocks to buy.

I hardly made money in MIC but I made some pretty good returns in NI. I bought a sizeable position in a high-flyer and I also bought MPI, which appears to have broken out of its range already and is now trending up.

Let's just hope the Dow will be able to break above 10,000 in the coming days ahead. 3200 coming for the PSEi? Cross your fingers folks! The market is now in the "storm". Fortunately, the storm appears to have brought rains to the drought. :-)

% of portfolio in the market - 60%

% in cash - 40%

Year to date return - 55%

Oct 6, 2009

Could the "storm" actually be a big move up, instead of a big move down? If the market is really going to trend up from here, today's movement should already be the start of it. Let's see, I'm trying hard to keep an open mind here but I'm still quite skeptical. GFIs really giving everything they've got to push this market up. PLDT up 4% in New York?!!

WEB was terrible! NI was fantastic! Yeah, mixed emotions going on right now in the market.

Anyway, I bought some JAP stocks today and a small position in a Lopez stock. I sold my LOTO for some coffee money. For a Tuesday, today wasn't so bad (haha).

% of portfolio in the market - 35%

% in cash - 65%

Year to date return - 53%

Oct 5, 2009

What an extremely boring day! I didn't do anything today. For those of you who still tried to day-trade today, you should already replace me as President of Tsupiteros Anonymous (haha).

Notice that some of the Asian bourses like Singapore and South Korea were even down by more than 2% today. Don't they think that the Dow will rebound tonight? It looks like it's going to rebound, right?!

Still, we are at THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM!!!

% of portfolio in the market - 10%

% in cash - 90%

Year to date return - 53%

Oct 2, 2009

I just did my last big bet on the market yesterday. It failed. I really budgeted to lose only 1% of the portfolio today, at most. Despite buying SPH and FGEN at the lows yesterday, I still ended up losing money. I still bought something today at the lows. Can't help it, despite knowing that the odds are now against me, I'm President of Tsupiteros Anonymous (hahaha).

The Dow has collapsed already. I don't think we will ever see Dow 10k anymore for a very long time. The PSEi, on the other hand, is still giving us the impression that it is still strong. In my opinion, they are simply trying to resuscitate the dead.

Watch ALI and watch the Dollar! They will give the confirmations that this so-called "bull market" is over.

Still, we are at THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM, both literally and figuratively. :-)

My words of wisdom for Tsupiteros: At the end of every bull-run, everybody loses money but, as long as you keep most of your gains during the run-up, then, you still did ok.

Buckle up everyone, it's going to be one bumpy October.

% of portfolio in the market - 10%

% in cash - 90%

Year to date return - 53%

Oct 1, 2009

I have to admit, when the Dow dropped last night, I really thought that that was it - the end of the uptrend. However, people are simply so used to this uptrend already that they are treating every dip as an opportunity to buy.

With the Dow failing to drop last night, I thought of putting back some positions in the market again today. I bought 2 issues that are currently trading at the lows right now. If I still lose money in these two issues, I can only feel pity for those who bought at the highs. Despite me being more bearish than bullish, I just feel quite uncomfortable for being too liquid and not holding any positions at all.

Someone is calling this market wrong. If you notice, while the blue chips are relatively strong, the 2nd and 3rd line issues are very weak. If you also notice, foreign funds have been net sellers in our market since the beginning of August. The weakness in the 2nd and 3rd line issues mean that the retail traders are selling into the market. The strength of the blue chips mean that the local institutions are buying into the market. So, who is making the right call? The retail traders and the foreign funds, or, the local institutions?

Thus, now is either a good time to buy the 2nd and 3rd line issues, or, it is a good time to sell the blue chips. Place your bets!

Still we are at THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM!!!

% of portfolio in the market - 25%

% in cash - 75%

Year to date return - 54%