Miko's Blog for November 2011

I hope not a lot of people got caught in the onslaught of the high-flyers like AAI. Very rarely will you see basura stocks going to the ceiling and its uptrend getting maintained. Normally, in a couple of days' time, they crash back down to earth just like what is happening now.

I got quite shocked when I saw IP drop back down to below 2.00 after what it did last Thursday. What the hell was that all about?! BHI is rallying right now but will it end up like IP as well?

It was a very boring day for the PSE this morning but, with the Dow now rallying, I think tomorrow (today) will be a lot more interesting.

Nov 24, 2011 (11:00 p.m.)

Markets are now obviously trending down but seems like are oversold and could bounce, maybe. PSE is now down for 7 consecutive days in a row. I would get really worried already for the bulls if we still don't rally in the next two days. A friend of mine, who is also a technician, is telling me that the markets are now like BPI.

The weakest sector in the market right now are the banking sector. I am guessing that this is because of the issue of taxation on their Peace bonds, which the BIR already withheld from them. Somehow, I don't think these banks would just give up those funds without a fight.

Just as I expected, H2O (cool symbol, by the way) was able to fly today and make money for those who subscribed. Although valuations of the company are simply "fair", the low float and small market cap was the reason why it was able to climb. Could it be the same for Touch Solutions? The only main difference here is that Touch Solutions isn't making money. By the way, have you noticed that CHIPS has yet to even touch its IPO price of 7.00 up to now. This is definitely a good sign for the bulls.

Got quite surprised with IP today. I never expected them to rejuvenate that one. News came out about its restructuring and EG's acquisition of 40 million IP shares at 1.70. I still don't understand though why it flew today. Technically though, today was a breakout.

Some foreign fund must certainly be quite pikon with MEG already as they sold P370 million worth near 1.80.

Although there is no Dow tonight, there is such a thing called the Dow Futures.

I'll be out of town for the weekend so I won't be able to update anything in Tsupitero.com until I come back by Monday. Good luck Tsupiteros!

Nov 23, 2011 (9:00 p.m.)

I wonder if Lolo got tired already today or is merely catching his breath. :-)

I got quite surprised with MHC today as it was still able to climb up strongly today despite what it did yesterday. The thing is, I'm not sure if the buyers expected BA Securities to sell again today? BA Securities in MHC is a foreign entity. A disclosure came out yesterday that the President of MHC acquired 1,500,000 shares at P0.82. Today, they came out with another disclosure stating that they made an error. The President did not acquire, he disposed. I pity all those people who bought into the stock today because of that disclosure and got burned. In my opinion, the PSE should fine companies for this sort of negligence. If the PSE let go of this without any sanctions, any company, which have not so good intentions, can just easily do the same to prop up the price and sell their shares in the market.

After all the speculation on which company Bloombury will be listed into, the winner finally came out today and it was AAI. Shareholders of AAI sold 60 million AAI shares for P200 million to Razon. Yes, that isn't a typo. They sold AAI for a mere P3.33 per share. AAI closed at P76.00...OMG!

While almost all the blues in the market looks either dead or half-dead, there is one group of blues that seems to have the capability to defy gravity - Lopez.

Nov 23, 2011 (6:30 a.m.)

Lolo has saved the day for the PSE! Market makers can only dream of consistently attracting P500 million worth of REAL transactions everyday in their stock, unlike some jockeys wherein 90% of the volume of their stock everyday are merely their own trades because they couldn't attract any following.

Ceiling plays are over. Back to regular programming.

Nov 22, 2011 (12:00 a.m.)

Dow is breaking down as of this moment. Could the 7-week rally of the markets have ended already? Volatility of the PSEi is now at its lowest in the last 7 weeks. We are now in "the calm before the storm".

5 ceilings again today?! That really ought to be the sign. Notice though that the ones hitting the ceilings are new playground basuras. The old basuras like BHI, CPG, ZHI, IP, AR, UPM, etc. seems like are dead in the water. Be careful though, these new basuras are, well, simply basuras. :-)

The MSCI stocks though are the only ones left that are still standing among the big caps. People are anticipating that these issues will move up come Nov 30 but who's going to buy on Nov 30 when people are already buying right now?

Nov 19, 2011 (3:00 p.m.)

Lolo is the ultimate market maker. No one even comes close.

I bet a lot of people were very happy with their "blue CHIPS" yesterday. Congratulations to all those who subscribed!

A lot of people are asking me about Calapan Ventures and Touch Solutions. In terms of valuation, Cirtek is just incomparable to the two as it is trading at a deep discount to the market. Calapan will be offered at fair value so it isn't that exciting and Touch Solutions is very, very expensive as it is even losing money. However, in terms of market cap and free float or if you want to know which stock can be easily pushed up, Touch Solutions is the "lightest", followed by Calapan Ventures, then, Cirtek. The question is, which is more important, valuation or free float? Most people would say that valuation is more important but JAP would probably say otherwise.

Ceiling again for AAI?!! Wealth buying P8M worth at P68.60. Talk about guts! Either he knows something we don't or he just signed his own death certificate.

The market did 6 ceilings today. Could this be a sign? Be sure you know how to distinguish the real ones from the fake ones.

Watch the Dow very, very carefully. Make or break right now!

Nov 17, 2011 (11:45 p.m.)

I have to admit, I was pleasantly surprised at the behavior of the PSE today. I have to admit, I was already expecting the worst this morning.

Suko ako with BEL/LR. I'm simply amazed why they are still trading at the highs up to now.

I did one of the fastest 20% gains in TFC today - 41 seconds. Of course, I only traded a mere 2000 shares. (haha)

Ceiling again for AAI?! Wow! I'll be damned if this closes at the ceiling again by tomorrow.

Lolo is the man!!!

I won't be eating breakfast tomorrow so that I'll have space in my tummy for some CHIPS!

Nov 17, 2011 (9:00 a.m.)

The MSCI has saved the market yesterday as ICT, URC and SMCwere added to the index but can it save the market today? From the way I see it, yesterday may even have been an opportunity to get out of those issues.

What does MIC, DIZ, IP and AAI have in common? They were all rumored to be the backdoor vehicle for Bloombury, which is one of the companies that will be involved in putting up a casino in the soon to be opened Entertainment City. The stock market can be quite hilarious at times.

I am quite amazed at LR/BEL, which is still trading at its highs up to now but can they survive today?

Has Lolo finally awaken?

Nov 15, 2011 (10:00 p.m.)

It's the Andrew Tan show once again. I may believe the upswings of AGI, MEG and GERI but not ELI and SUN.

JAP stocks and BEL/LR continued to form higher highs today but it is quite evident that their upswings are getting tired already.

How true is it that OTC trades for Cirtek is now doing 8.25?

...and Lolo continues to be mysteriously quiet.

Nov 15, 2011 (12:00 a.m.)

The market just continues to rally despite all the concerns in Europe. Is the PSEi gunning for a new all-time high once again?

Most of the speculative issues were a bit weak today except for APX, which almost hit the ceiling. APX though has a history of being a "one-day wonder". Could this be another one of those or is today's move an exception?

Did JAP stocks peak today? Did BEL/LR peak today?

One "sector" that hardly participated in the rally of the last few days are the Lolo stocks (LC and MA). Could they finally be in line to move next?

Nov 10, 2011 (6:00 a.m.)

The end of the 6 week rally?

Nov 8, 2011 (11:45 p.m.)

Markets just continue to climb over a wall of worry about Europe, recession, etc. Are the markets still scared and everybody is just day-trading, or, are they now complacent with most people finally buying and holding? The former is obviously more bullish.

Aside from Cirtek Holdings Phils., Corp., a number of IPOs coming up like Calapan Ventures, Inc. and Touch Solutions, Inc. What do all these IPOs have in common compared with all the IPOs in the past? Small market capitalizations and offer amounts.

So what if they have small caps and only a few shares being offered? Those who would like to buy the stock will be forced to buy at a higher price because of the limited supply. Furthermore, one would only need a small amount of money to push prices higher. With the market very hungry for fresh, new plays, one of these stocks might just be "the one". Will valuations even matter? I'm subscribing (or gambling) to all those IPOs. :-)

Nov 7, 2011 (10:00 p.m.)

Normally, I don't buy IPOs. I even always tell participants of my seminars that IPOs is a way for insiders to distribute their shares to the public. However, I wonder if Cirtek could be one of the exceptions.

At an offering price of 7.00 per share, the stock is merely trading at a P/E ratio of 6.74x 2011 earnings and 5.28x 2012 earnings. Price to book of just 0.86. These are well below the market's current average P/E ratio of about 13x and the market's current average price to book of 2.00.

Furthermore, only 42,163,000 shares will be offered to the public. At 7.00, that's just a mere P295,141,000. This means that, if the insiders wanted to push it, they can easily do so, given the limited float. Of course, one big seller can also easily destroy the price.

The only negative I can see for the stock is the industry that it is in - semi-conductor - however, the global average P/E ratio of the sector is around 13x, based on a study which I read recently. Thus, Cirtek is much cheaper than the valuations of the entire sector. The only stock that we can compare Cirtek to here in the PSE is IMI but IMI is currently trading at 60x P/E, thus, is not comparable at all to Cirtek.

I don't know how people think about this stock but I'll probably gamble a little on this one by next week.

By the way, I would like to congratulate all the believers of the recent IPO, PGOLD. Admittedly, it wasn't pure crap after all. :-)

Nov 3, 2011 (11:00 p.m.)

Talk about a schizo market. Dow up 178 points last night but Dow Futures down 130 points in the morning. By the time Wall Street opened earlier, Dow up 140 points but, after a few minutes, Dow unchanged. Now, as of this writing, Dow up 100 points. What's going to happen tomorrow? Why don't you just toss a coin?! :-)

Finally, the long due correction has finally begun in the PSEi or did it?

Anyone noticed MET? If it goes to the ceiling again by tomorrow, those who bought the stock just five days ago would have made 10 times their money already by tomorrow. It's quite irritating actually if you are not holding any shares of it. Congratulations to all those who made money in this one. Just remember, the time to sell it is when it no longer closes at the ceiling price.

Nov 2, 2011 (11:00 p.m.)

I'm not sure what to do with this market anymore. Targets have already been achieved ( 600 points in just over a month's time) and the market's rate of ascent has now evidently declined, yet, if the Dow goes up again tonight, prices might rally again tomorrow.

I guess not much else to do but play more trash. :-)

I was able to nail the bottom of ZHI today but, as usual, sold too early.