Miko's Blog for
Nov 29, 2011 (12:15 p.m.)
just came home from a short vacation in Singapore...
hope not a lot of people got caught in the onslaught of the high-flyers
like AAI. Very rarely will you see basura stocks going to the ceiling
and its uptrend getting maintained. Normally, in a couple of days' time,
they crash back down to earth just like what is happening now.
got quite shocked when I saw IP drop back down to below 2.00 after what
it did last Thursday. What the hell was that all about?! BHI is rallying
right now but will it end up like IP as well?
was a very boring day for the PSE this morning but, with the Dow now
rallying, I think tomorrow (today) will be a lot more interesting.
Nov 24, 2011 (11:00 p.m.)
Markets are now obviously trending down but seems like are oversold and
could bounce, maybe. PSE is now down for 7 consecutive days in a row. I
would get really worried already for the bulls if we still don't rally
in the next two days. A friend of mine, who is also a technician, is
telling me that the markets are now like BPI.
weakest sector in the market right now are the banking sector. I am
guessing that this is because of the issue of taxation on their Peace
bonds, which the BIR already withheld from them. Somehow, I don't think
these banks would just give up those funds without a fight.
as I expected, H2O (cool symbol, by the way) was able to fly today and
make money for those who subscribed. Although valuations of the company
are simply "fair", the low float and small market cap was the reason why
it was able to climb. Could it be the same for Touch Solutions? The only
main difference here is that Touch Solutions isn't making money. By the
way, have you noticed that CHIPS has yet to even touch its IPO price of
7.00 up to now. This is definitely a good sign for the bulls.
quite surprised with IP today. I never expected them to rejuvenate that
one. News came out about its restructuring and EG's acquisition of 40
million IP shares at 1.70. I still don't understand though why it flew
today. Technically though, today was a breakout.
foreign fund must certainly be quite pikon with MEG already as they sold
P370 million worth near 1.80.
Although there is no Dow tonight, there is such a thing called the Dow
be out of town for the weekend so I won't be able to update anything in
Tsupitero.com until I come back by Monday. Good luck Tsupiteros!
Nov 23, 2011 (9:00 p.m.)
wonder if Lolo got tired already today or is merely catching his breath.
got quite surprised with MHC today as it was still able to climb up
strongly today despite what it did yesterday. The thing is, I'm not sure
if the buyers expected BA Securities to sell again today? BA Securities
in MHC is a foreign entity. A disclosure came out yesterday that the
President of MHC acquired 1,500,000 shares at P0.82. Today, they came
out with another disclosure stating that they made an error. The
President did not acquire, he disposed. I pity all those people who
bought into the stock today because of that disclosure and got burned.
In my opinion, the PSE should fine companies for this sort of
negligence. If the PSE let go of this without any sanctions, any
company, which have not so good intentions, can just easily do the same
to prop up the price and sell their shares in the market.
After all the speculation on which company Bloombury will be listed
into, the winner finally came out today and it was AAI. Shareholders of
AAI sold 60 million AAI shares for P200 million to Razon. Yes, that
isn't a typo. They sold AAI for a mere P3.33 per share. AAI closed at
While almost all the blues in the market looks either dead or half-dead,
there is one group of blues that seems to have the capability to defy
gravity - Lopez.
Nov 23, 2011 (6:30 a.m.)
has saved the day for the PSE! Market makers can only dream of
consistently attracting P500 million worth of REAL transactions everyday
in their stock, unlike some jockeys wherein 90% of the volume of their
stock everyday are merely their own trades because they couldn't attract
Ceiling plays are over. Back to regular programming.
Nov 22, 2011 (12:00 a.m.)
is breaking down as of this moment. Could the 7-week rally of the
markets have ended already? Volatility of the PSEi is now at its lowest
in the last 7 weeks. We are now in "the calm before the storm".
ceilings again today?! That really ought to be the sign. Notice though
that the ones hitting the ceilings are new playground basuras. The old
basuras like BHI, CPG, ZHI, IP, AR, UPM, etc. seems like are dead in the
water. Be careful though, these new basuras are, well, simply basuras.
MSCI stocks though are the only ones left that are still standing among
the big caps. People are anticipating that these issues will move up
come Nov 30 but who's going to buy on Nov 30 when people are already
buying right now?
Nov 19, 2011 (3:00 p.m.)
is the ultimate market maker. No one even comes close.
bet a lot of people were very happy with their "blue CHIPS" yesterday.
Congratulations to all those who subscribed!
lot of people are asking me about Calapan Ventures and Touch Solutions.
In terms of valuation, Cirtek is just incomparable to the two as it is
trading at a deep discount to the market. Calapan will be offered at
fair value so it isn't that exciting and Touch Solutions is very, very
expensive as it is even losing money. However, in terms of market cap
and free float or if you want to know which stock can be easily pushed
up, Touch Solutions is the "lightest", followed by Calapan Ventures,
then, Cirtek. The question is, which is more important, valuation or
free float? Most people would say that valuation is more important but
JAP would probably say otherwise.
Ceiling again for AAI?!! Wealth buying P8M worth at P68.60. Talk about
guts! Either he knows something we don't or he just signed his own death
market did 6 ceilings today. Could this be a sign? Be sure you know how
to distinguish the real ones from the fake ones.
the Dow very, very carefully. Make or break right now!
Nov 17, 2011 (11:45 p.m.)
have to admit, I was pleasantly surprised at the behavior of the PSE
today. I have to admit, I was already expecting the worst this morning.
ako with BEL/LR. I'm simply amazed why they are still trading at the
highs up to now.
did one of the fastest 20% gains in TFC today - 41 seconds. Of course, I
only traded a mere 2000 shares. (haha)
Ceiling again for AAI?! Wow! I'll be damned if this closes at the
ceiling again by tomorrow.
is the man!!!
won't be eating breakfast tomorrow so that I'll have space in my tummy
for some CHIPS!
Nov 17, 2011 (9:00 a.m.)
MSCI has saved the market yesterday as ICT, URC and SMCwere added to the
index but can it save the market today? From the way I see it, yesterday
may even have been an opportunity to get out of those issues.
does MIC, DIZ, IP and AAI have in common? They were all rumored to be
the backdoor vehicle for Bloombury, which is one of the companies that
will be involved in putting up a casino in the soon to be opened
Entertainment City. The stock market can be quite hilarious at times.
quite amazed at LR/BEL, which is still trading at its highs up to now
but can they survive today?
Lolo finally awaken?
Nov 15, 2011 (10:00 p.m.)
the Andrew Tan show once again. I may believe the upswings of AGI, MEG
and GERI but not ELI and SUN.
stocks and BEL/LR continued to form higher highs today but it is quite
evident that their upswings are getting tired already.
true is it that OTC trades for Cirtek is now doing 8.25?
...and Lolo continues to be mysteriously quiet.
Nov 15, 2011 (12:00 a.m.)
market just continues to rally despite all the concerns in Europe. Is
the PSEi gunning for a new all-time high once again?
of the speculative issues were a bit weak today except for APX, which
almost hit the ceiling. APX though has a history of being a "one-day
wonder". Could this be another one of those or is today's move an
JAP stocks peak today? Did BEL/LR peak today?
"sector" that hardly participated in the rally of the last few days are
the Lolo stocks (LC and MA). Could they finally be in line to move next?
Nov 10, 2011 (6:00 a.m.)
end of the 6 week rally?
Nov 8, 2011 (11:45 p.m.)
Markets just continue to climb over a wall of worry about Europe,
recession, etc. Are the markets still scared and everybody is just
day-trading, or, are they now complacent with most people finally buying
and holding? The former is obviously more bullish.
Aside from Cirtek Holdings Phils., Corp., a number of IPOs coming up
like Calapan Ventures, Inc. and Touch Solutions, Inc. What do all these
IPOs have in common compared with all the IPOs in the past? Small market
capitalizations and offer amounts.
what if they have small caps and only a few shares being offered? Those
who would like to buy the stock will be forced to buy at a higher price
because of the limited supply. Furthermore, one would only need a small
amount of money to push prices higher. With the market very hungry for
fresh, new plays, one of these stocks might just be "the one". Will
valuations even matter? I'm subscribing (or gambling) to all those IPOs.
Nov 7, 2011 (10:00 p.m.)
Normally, I don't buy IPOs. I even always tell participants of my
seminars that IPOs is a way for insiders to distribute their shares to
the public. However, I wonder if Cirtek could be one of the exceptions.
an offering price of 7.00 per share, the stock is merely trading at a
P/E ratio of 6.74x 2011 earnings and 5.28x 2012 earnings. Price to book
of just 0.86. These are well below the market's current average P/E
ratio of about 13x and the market's current average price to book of
Furthermore, only 42,163,000 shares will be offered to the public. At
7.00, that's just a mere P295,141,000. This means that, if the insiders
wanted to push it, they can easily do so, given the limited float. Of
course, one big seller can also easily destroy the price.
only negative I can see for the stock is the industry that it is in -
semi-conductor - however, the global average P/E ratio of the sector is
around 13x, based on a study which I read recently. Thus, Cirtek is much
cheaper than the valuations of the entire sector. The only stock that we
can compare Cirtek to here in the PSE is IMI but IMI is currently
trading at 60x P/E, thus, is not comparable at all to Cirtek.
don't know how people think about this stock but I'll probably gamble a
little on this one by next week.
the way, I would like to congratulate all the believers of the recent
IPO, PGOLD. Admittedly, it wasn't pure crap after all. :-)
Nov 3, 2011 (11:00 p.m.)
about a schizo market. Dow up 178 points last night but Dow Futures down
130 points in the morning. By the time Wall Street opened earlier, Dow
up 140 points but, after a few minutes, Dow unchanged. Now, as of this
writing, Dow up 100 points. What's going to happen tomorrow? Why don't
you just toss a coin?! :-)
Finally, the long due correction has finally begun in the PSEi or did
Anyone noticed MET? If it goes to the ceiling again by tomorrow, those
who bought the stock just five days ago would have made 10 times their
money already by tomorrow. It's quite irritating actually if you are not
holding any shares of it. Congratulations to all those who made money in
this one. Just remember, the time to sell it is when it no longer closes
at the ceiling price.
Nov 2, 2011 (11:00 p.m.)
not sure what to do with this market anymore. Targets have already been
achieved ( 600 points in just over a month's time) and the market's rate
of ascent has now evidently declined, yet, if the Dow goes up again
tonight, prices might rally again tomorrow.
guess not much else to do but play more trash. :-)
was able to nail the bottom of ZHI today but, as usual, sold too early.