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Miko's Blog for
November 2010
Nov 30, 2010
Some foreign funds
appear to have sold their positions already as they are now forcing the
PSEi to drop. The market ought to have closed down by just 50 points if
not for some force closings in SM, SMPH and some of the big banks. The
thing is foreign funds only started selling in the beginning of November
and, since then, they've only sold P2.3 billion. If I count from the
time they became heavy buyers in our market in early September, foreign
funds are still net buyers by P17.2 billion. So, will the P17.2 billion
get out as well? I doubt it as they'll just be shooting themselves in
the foot if they do so.
It's the same case with
my beloved ACR, which dropped by a whopping 7% today. Why did the stock
drop significantly today? The simple answer is - stops got triggered
when prices broke below its previous low of 1.49. All those who bid up
the stock from 1.40 to 1.69 in the last one week has squared already
today so I don't see much who would still sell below current levels. The
only ones who can make this stock drop from this point on is HDI
Securities.
As of today, HDI Securities is net long
in the stock by 185 million shares, with most of the shares bought in
the last three months alone. Are these shares going to sell if prices
drop? Definitely not because they'll just be shooting themselves in the
foot by doing so. Although the stock might go up and down because of the
fear and greed of people, the company is "unchanged" and is business as
usual. I'm still hoping my wish will come true before Christmas.
It's a good thing my
other sweetheart, TBGI, is oblivious to the world and is continuing to
trend up. I wonder if the Sheik is now targeting its all-time high of
5.80.
Nov 27, 2010
I've been quite sick
with a stomach problem in the last two days, which is why I haven't been
writing here in my blog. I guess the whole market is also not feeling
quite well nowadays. On average, people probably lost 10% in their
portfolio this November. I, on the other hand, lost 10 lbs in the last
two days.
There are only a
handful of bright spots in the market right now - the RSA sector, the
gas station sector, the Pagcor City sector and the Aboitizes. Other
stocks, which are still trending up, are ACR, TBGI and some select
Chucky or JAP stocks. The only problem is, although all these stocks or
sectors that I've mentioned above are still trending up, some of them
could be toppish already. Here's the dilemma: If the whole market
continues to fall, then, some of these stocks might be the ones that
could fall a lot; but, if the whole market starts to rise, then, the
biggest gainers will most certainly be within these group of stocks that
I've mentioned above as well.
So, the big question
is, is this just a short-term correction or is this the start of a much
bigger fall? To answer that question, you simply need to answer this:
are people cutting losses or are they just continuing to hold on to
their positions?
Nov 24, 2010
Just when everybody
thought that there's just nowhere else to go but up, SMC and SMB appears
to have finally formed a peak today. Even the "gas station sector" may
have run of out gasoline today.
On the other hand, my
beloved TBGI doesn't care about what is happening in Korea and is just
now up for a fifth day in a row. 10 more days to go? (hehe)
Nov 23, 2010
Although the whole
market was luckluster today, there were just two sectors that was worth
looking at this morning - the Ramon Ang sector and the Gas Station
sector. SMB is mind-boggling! Wow!
Although my beloved ACR
is currently in correction mode, my ever dearest TBGI is not and is now
surging for a fourth day in a row. If this is really a "GEM", I wouldn't
be surprised if this goes up by 15 days in a row (hehe). No, I'm not
hyping, I'm just basing my analysis on what happened to CPM and ANI
before. :-)
Nov 22, 2010
NIKL started off with a
bang as rumors circulated that the stock was going to hit the ceiling
price. I have to admit, it looked possible to me too because people
hardly were able to get any shares and the stock looks light enough to
bid up. What most people weren't able to factor into the equation was
that foreign funds held a lot and they weren't shy to sell it all on the
first day of listing. The local funds kept buying and buying but, I
guess, at the end of the day, they are now thinking if what they did was
right or wrong. Day-traders like me got killed as I was thinking that
the stock would just correct before it continues to go up. I ended up
selling my 1,000 shares of NIKL at 18.00 but, instead of making
P3,000.00, I just ended up making half of that due to my loss on the
day-trade. My last attempt to day-trade was at the 18.00 level. You do
believe that I just held a thousand shares, right? (haha)
There are four issues
that are currently going for my beloved Advanced Christmas Regalo (ACR):
1. Indophil - A sale of
Indophil to SMC or to any entity will trigger a tender offer, which
could earn the Alcantara family a cool US$50 million. These funds can
potentially be used for the operations of ACR, if the family agrees.
2. Is JAP in? I'm not
really a big fan of JAP, as everyone knows, but I surely will welcome
anyone who can push my baby higher. :-)
3. Lack of Power and
Energy in Mindanao - the company is now at a very fortunate situation to
be strategically positioned in Mindanao and with Power being its main
line of business.
4. Lastly, a "dark
horse" reason for buying or holding ACR. I'd like to share a post of a
friend of mine in the FinanceManila forum. He states:
" Boss
Sanmig, last nite I had a strange dream. I dreamt Some Mega Conglomerate
making inroads into Another Corporate Resbak!
I would term this as the new "Mutt and Jeff" show. Strangely, we didn't
realize they have just too many things in common: involved in same
growing POWERful industry; bedmates in same "biggest mIning pRoject of
the couNtry; ceos' crossing paths in PCOR; ceos' surname starts with
letter A; and both issues achieving 52-week highs yesterday.
Best of all , it all hAppened this ChRistmas! Hahaha, Hohoho!
Disclaimer: It's just a dream."
Go figure! :-)
Finally, I was reading
FinanceManila awhile ago and it finally dawned to me what could possibly
be happening in TBGI - the company is a "GEM". :-)
Nov 20, 2010
Finally! The market has
begun to really rebound already but I'm afraid the damage has already
been done for some stocks. Those stocks that have dropped quite a lot
and have hardly recovered yet up to now, will probably have a difficult
time climbing back up. I would advise to sell these stocks on strength.
On the other hand, as I have been mentioning in the last few
days, the stocks to watch are those that are hardly dropped. Notice that
the top gainers in the last two days are those stocks exactly - AP, AEV,
SMB, SMC, BEL, HLCM, ORE and ACR.
What is going for our market? The rate of the 91-Day
Treasury Bills have now dropped to 1.48%. At this rate, will you still
put your money in the bank?
AT will be holding an analyst briefing on Tuesday. I
heard from the grapevine that prospects for next year will be great and
that they will be presenting better than expected earnings for 2011. The
stock looks oversold and could rebound from current levels but I doubt
if it can easily climb back up to 20.00 in the near-term.
My TBGI has broken above its consolidation already and has begun to
trend. I have no idea what's going on with this one but its chart looks
fantastic. I'm still puzzled by its big transactions recently but,
whatever it is, it must be good. :-)
I'm quite excited about my 1,000 shares of Nickel Asia. Rumors are
circulating that this will hit the ceiling price on Monday. :-)
My beloved ACR has finally broken above its resistance at 1.55 and even
its 52-week high of 1.60. I've been hearing a lot of developments
recently. Obviously, some people are probably anticipating some good
news forthcoming. Merry Christmas to all who
bought regalos! I believe the best has yet to come. :-)
Nov 18, 2010
The Christmas Song
Chestnuts roasting on an
open fire,
Jack Frost nipping on your nose,
Yuletide carols being sung by a choir,
And folks dressed up like Eskimos.
Everybody knows a turkey and
some mistletoe,
Help to make the season bright.
Tiny tots with their eyes all aglow,
Will find it hard to sleep tonight.
They know that Santa's on his way;
He's loaded lots of toys and goodies on his sleigh.
And every mother's child is going to spy,
To see if reindeer really know how to fly.
And so I'm offering this simple phrase,
To kids from one to ninety-two,
Although its been said many times, many ways,
A very Merry Christmas to you
Nov 17, 2010
Unfortunately for the
bulls, they got disappointed again today. What I've noticed personally
is that every kind of bullish technical set-up that has worked for me in
the last few weeks, no longer is working in the last few days. This is
the part of the trend where everybody gets hit (I am no exception). Why?
Because the short-term trend has turned down, yet, the overall trend is
still up and people are so accustomed to "buying the dips". The thing
is, is this market still a "buy on dips"? The only people who were able
to escape this drop either: sold too early and no longer chased prices
on the way up; or, were damn lucky and were able to sell at the peak. I
bet most people are still stuck with their positions up to now and are
just holding. This is precisely the reason why the market couldn't
rebound. However, after what has happened in the last eight trading
days, I guess if you haven't sold yet up to now, you might no longer
sell anymore even if prices drop down further. In my opinion, we are
very near a short-term bottom already. If not, then, we need to say the
Our Father already.
There are now but a
handful of issues that still haven't dropped yet up to now. In my
opinion, these stocks that haven't been affected by the bloodbath in the
market are the ones that you need to watch very, very closely. Remember,
Christmas is now just around the corner. :-)
Nov 15, 2010
Finally! After six days in a row, the
market has bottomed-out in the short-term. Maybe because Pacquiao won
yesterday (haha). The question now is, will this be an opportunity to
get in, or, is it just a dead-cat bounce?
I'm sticking to stocks that don't have
foreign participation and the public isn't participating yet there is a
story. Stocks that have either of the two are just for trading to me at
this point. I currently have two stocks in my portfolio that fits that
buying description of mine. :-)
By the way, I'm sorry if I wasn't able
to update my website as I was quite busy this weekend. Will update it
for sure by Monday next week.
Nov 12, 2010
It came like a thief in
the night. With hardly any signs that the market was already at the
peak, we suddenly find the market down by almost 10% from its highs of
4413. What it built in the last one and a half months, it destroyed in
the last six days. Obviously, the market has formed a medium-term peak
at 4413 and I wouldn't be surprised if that would already be the highest
point of the year. However, with the market already down so much in the
last few days, there ought to be some opportunity in here somewhere. So
far though, there has been no place to hide except in cash. I guess the
market will have to scare every single bull out there before it can
start to bottom-out.
Some people may wonder
though, could there actually be issues that are still up from six days
ago? Yes, there are. For those stocks that haven't dropped yet up to
now, I believe they are risk-free already. If you'll notice, stocks that
are vulnerable to a decline are those stocks wherein there are a lot of
foreign fundies that are long, or, the "public" is heavily invested in
it. For those stocks that don't have both, they are risk-free.
Finally, the hell week
is over. If you lost just less than 5% in the portfolio, consider
yourself lucky. If you are already losing more than 10% and you are
still "all-in" up to now, I'll just include you in my prayers. :-)
Nov 11, 2010
Admittedly, I think I
may have under-estimated the strength of this downswing. I couldn't
believe that the market dropped by another 100 points today. Still,
prices are definitely oversold and could possibly find a short-term
bottom already soon. I'll state again that the market may have already
found a bottom at 4090 today. If not, then, I'll probably right tomorrow
or the following day (haha).
Incidentally, I believe
the Dow has the same exact psychology as the PSEi right now. What does
that mean? Despite already being down for the last three days, the
biggest drop in the Dow may actually happen tonight or tomorrow night
(yikes!).
Hopefully, the Dow drops by 3 digits
already tonight so that we can finally form a bottom by tomorrow. :-)
I bet most people are
looking at those stocks that dropped a lot in the last few days.
Personally though, I'm looking in particular at those stocks that didn't
drop or may have even climbed. :-)
I heard from the
grapevine that Nickel Asia is now selling at 18.00 in the over the
counter market. Yehey! I'll be able to make P3,000.00 from my humongous
1,000 shares allocation (haha).
Yesterday, it was AGI
that had a panic. Today, it was MPI and MER. I wonder what stock will be
next tomorrow (yikes!) I don't know if you noticed but the big broker
that sold AGI in the last couple of days was the same broker that sold
MPI today - JP Morgan. I would bet that that was from the same fund.
For a fifth day in a
row, huge cross transactions can be seen in TBGI once again. In the last
couple of days, they were crossing 3 million shares a day. Today, they
became more aggressive as they crossed 7.5 million shares. Either
something is brewing in here, or, the Prince is just pulling my leg. :-)
Nov 10, 2010
Today, the market
reminded everyone that prices can also drop. One would probably think
that foreign funds were the ones that sold down the market heavily today
but, looking at the PSE quotation report, foreign funds were merely net
sellers today by P138 million. Thus, the ones that actually panicked
today were the local funds. From the way I see it, the market may
actually have bottomed-out at 4172 already. Ironically, the bulls will
probably want the Dow to drop tonight for our market to confirm a
bottom. :-)
After the humongous
selling of JP Morgan in AGI yesterday, people began asking on whether
there is a problem with the stock. Some began selling first before
asking questions. That's the power of the herd. In my opinion though,
the stock may have bottomed-out already today at 9.80.
Any stock among the big caps and the
second-line issues that didn't drop today or even climbed, is probably a
"buy" already. I saw three issues that fitted that description. :-)
There were big cross
transactions once again in TBGI today, Hmm...
Nov 9, 2010
The market has been
dropping heavily since yesterday, not only because of TEL, but because
of the heavy foreign selling across the board. Could they be taking
profits already from their positions, which they bought last September?
Maybe but one or two days of selling isn't conclusive enough, in my
opinion. Technically, there were a lot of "failed bullish set-ups" in a
lot of issues so we might just consolidate, at best, for now.
One of these failed
bullish set-ups is AGI as I recommended buying it above the 12.00 level
last Friday. Unfortunately, prices failed to hold its ground and broke
below its support. The main culprit - JP Morgan sold more than P200
million worth of the stock today. I wonder if he has more to sell but I
guess there might still be a play on this one going towards the
announcement of its 3rd quarter earnings next week. The only problem is,
I think everybody already knows that its earnings are going to be great.
The market has made
people think that, as long as you buy the dips, you will make money.
While that thinking has held true up to now, there will come a point
when it will no longer be true, especially if everyone is no longer
selling even if prices drop below their costs. Remember, when everybody
becomes complacent, that's when the big bad bear appears.
I find it quite amazing
that Wealth Securities, who was the one who bid up BEL last Friday from
2.50 to 3.00, was able to sell all of this positions yesterday near
3.00. My hats down to the Black Samurai.
I bet no one noticed
the huge cross transactions in TBGI recently. Could the Sheik be up to
something?
A lot of people have
been asking me about whether they should subscribe to the Nickel Asia
IPO or not. In my opinion, as long as the whole market doesn't collapse,
you will make money in any IPO, that is, as long as you sell in the
first couple of days of listing. Like CEB, despite how "heavy" the stock
is, you would still have made money in it, as long as you sold during
the day of listing. What more to something as "light" as Nickel Asia.
Furthermore, the PSE is already requiring companies that do IPOs to
set-up a stabilization fund so that prices don't collapse after listing.
The only problem is, once the fund gets depleted and the IPO is
expensive, prices might fall under its own weight.
Finally, I'd like to
greet my very good friend, Mr. Danny Go, who is celebrating his birthday
today. He is the founder of
http://www.absolutetraders.com.
Nov 7, 2010
Above is a picture of the participants of my recently concluded seminar
in Valle Verde Country Club. Congratulations to all the attendees! You
are now one step closer to finding the Holy Grail. :-)
Nov 5, 2010
It was a very
interesting day at the PSE today. I got disappointed by the market,
given the big up day in Wall Street last night, but not with some of my
positions.
The main drag of the
whole market today was TEL as it announced earnings that were below
expectations, I suppose. The drop in TEL amounted to 30 points in the
PSEi. Thus, if we took out TEL from the index, our market would have
been down by just 18 points. I guess if there is one industry that
people ought to be avoiding right now it is the telecom sector as that
sector now has zero growth since their market is saturated already. Only
new technologies can probably drive growth in that sector once again.
I'm not quite sure though if I could say the same for DGTL, which has a
low market cap compared with TEL and GLO.
The Black Samurai has
flexed his muscle today as BEL climbed up by a whopping 18%. Wow! Could
they have found a replacement to Harrah's?
I read something in the forums
about Bellagio?
I got quite
disappointed with the performance of my ACR as well despite good news
disclosed today. Earnings came out in line with expectations as they
reported a net income of P778 million for the first 3 quarters of the
year. What is quite interesting in their disclosure are the following
statements:
For 2011, the principal
focus of management will be on the expansion of its energy business. The
company is embarking in a $500 million capital expenditure program over
the 2011-2013 period that will be accounted for by two of the three
coal-fired power generating plants that the company will build in
Sarangani and Zamboanga del Sur provinces.
The company's expansion
projects will be funded by equity from shareholders and borrowings....
Additional statement
from Tomas I. Alcantara, Chairman & President, ACR:
Our company believes
that the conditions are favorable to warrant the company's expansion of
its industrial activities at this time. Our expansion supports our
long-term commitments to southern Mindanao on bringing employment
opportunities and accelerated industrial development. We believe that
the establishment of the power plants in the region will address the
current supply difficulties which will be more chronic in the
medium-term if only the existing capacities are relied upon. With
concrete and determined plans to put on line up to 300 megawatts of
capacity over a five-year time horizon, industries and commercial
establishments in the South can now firm up their plans, whether in new
or expansion projects.
I was hoping that
yesterday's upswing was already the start of something big but,
unfortunately, the stock is still in a consolidation mode. A friend of
mine told me this afternoon, "Maaga pa para mag celebrate ng Pasko". :-)
Nov 4, 2010
Finally, both the
Elections and the FED Meeting is over and it did not result in any big
moves in the market....hmmm. Delayed reaction perhaps? With everybody
thinking that the market would sell on the news because the QE was
already factored in into the market, there was just no one else left to
sell there in the US. I'm betting that the US would go up now because
all those who sold prior to the "news" could potentially buyback higher.
We have a different situation here in the PSE though. Do you think more
people are long right now or are liquid? :-)
Despite the market
going higher and higher, I bet not all are making a lot right now. Why?
Because most of those stocks that are going up are those that are
already high. On the other hand, the public is trying to find the next
big thing by buying those that are presently low. Unfortunately, it is
very, very difficult to find something that is currently low and will
immediately go up. Those that are low are probably weak.
There were only two
instances that I recommended ACR in my newsletter. When it dropped to
1.20 after climbing up to as high as 1.34, and, when it dropped to 1.38
after climbing up to as high as 1.55. For those who missed the bus,
sorry, but you might not see 1.38 again. Advanced Merry Christmas to all
believers! :-)
Nov 3, 2010
Is
everyone ready for tonight's big event - the FED Meeting? After tonight,
we will know if we will make money in November or not (haha). But
seriously, does our market even care? :-)
CEB
is crashing. It's a pity but I don't think the plane will have P20
billion worth of parachutes on board and most will really have to die.
It's a good thing most of the passengers weren't Filipinos. With more
than 75% of the offering being secondary shares, the pilot have actually
jumped out of the plane ahead of the passengers already. :-)
I
don't know if you can feel it but Advance
Christmas Regalo is now in the air. :-)
Nov 2, 2010
The
Andrew Tan show appears to have triggered a "buy" signal in the whole
market, especially in the property sector. The Power sector,
specifically, the Lopez stocks, seem to be in play as well. Mining is
taking a breather for now.
The
market was pleasantly weird today. After what the Dow did last night, I
was thinking that the best that this market can do today is just move
sideways. This week, world markets are focusing on three significant
events: the elections in the US (Tuesday), the FED Meeting (Wednesday)
and the jobs report in the US (Friday). Place your bets. I'm betting UP!
:-)
Here's an interesting analogy of what the FED is doing to the US economy
as stated by Mr. Raymond Merriman:
...this
whole process of trying to keep the American economy afloat via
manipulation/interference of the markets may be more like the Titanic
than the QE (Queen Elizabeth). It is getting harder and harder for the
Fed to keep this ship from sinking when the captain and all his officers
believe that the only way to stay afloat is to take on more and more
water (debt). Eventually they will take on so much water, so the logic
goes, that the ocean level (value of the Dollar) will go down enough and
the luxury liner (once the world’s greatest economy) can’t sink. In the
meantime, Bernanke and the Fed keep patching up the ever growing holes
in the hulk, buying time and hoping to limp onto a sandbar before it is
too late. Or maybe they are spending their time blowing up an inflatable
vessel to carry the passengers to safety, with only a fraction of their
values saved.
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