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Miko's Blog for
Nov 2009
Nov 27, 2009
I
lost a little in the market today as I sold all my positions yesterday
and I got whipsawed one fluc in CPM. I lost coffee money in PIP and LOTO.
Repent!!! The End is Near!!! hahahaha
% of portfolio in the market - 0%
% in cash - 100%
Year to date return - 80%
Nov 26, 2009
It
was a bit of confusing day today. I don't even know where that "up 25
pts" in the market came from. I lost just a little coffee money today
due to charges from "same prices".
I
was looking for a gold play cause gold looks like is going to the moon.
Unfortunately, I picked LC. It's a good thing I was able to get out at
"same price". It's so sad that we don't have a gold play in the market
right now.
I
also sold at "same price" the ISM that I bought yesterday. I'm still
trying to figure that one right now whether that is accumulation or
distribution. I bought two possible "SSS plays" today.
I'm
already regretting having sold all my CPM yesterday. CPM looks to be the
real "monster". It's a "BW" in the making. I'm not comfortable with it
right now though cause it appears like the public has already joined the
fray.
Dow
was up last night and the Asian markets were mostly down. I'm really not
comfortable with this market right now. Something just isn't right.
% of portfolio in the market - 15%
% in cash - 85%
Year to date return - 81%
Nov 25, 2009
I
had a wonderful day in the market today as I hardly did anything wrong.
I
was able to day-trade MEG today. I was able to take profits in my
position in CPM and I was even able to day-trade it as well. Since I
made money for the day, I sold all my nuisance positions already like V
and PNX. I didn't have any positions anymore so I bought a high-flyer
near the close.
I'm
long on just 10% of the portfolio, not because I'm very bearish on the
markets, but because I didn't want to buy anything just for the sake of
buying. Admittedly though, the market is not exactly very bullish
anymore either.
% of portfolio in the market - 10%
% in cash - 90%
Year to date return - 81%
Nov 24, 2009
I
sold almost all my positions today and made coffee money (haha).
Fortunately, I was able sell at or near the highs of the days for most
of my positions - ISM, I-remit and ANI.
There are now only a handful of stocks that are still worth buying right
now from my perspective and I'm holding one of them. I averaged up on
that stock today.
What
is the meaning of pathetic? Dow goes up by 132 points but the general
market is no longer reacting (notice that the regional markets are also
down). In order to prevent the sky from falling and to "balance" the
index, they bid up PLDT.
Watch Gold! This is where the sell signal in the equity markets will
come from.
% of portfolio in the market - 55%
% in cash - 45%
Year to date return - 78%
Nov 23, 2009
I
loaded up on the portfolio today. Not that I'm bullish on the market as
a whole but, it seems like all the stocks that are in my radar looks
bullish to me.
I
bought a little bit of everything - a JAP, a GEM and an RVO. I was able
to day-trade NI. I was able to make coffee money in the PX that I bought
last Friday.
The
Dow was suppose to have collapsed already by now. The fact that it
didn't made me think that it may climb back up once again. But, who
cares?! The stocks that I'm buying doesn't care about the movements of
the Dow or the PSEi anyway. They all depend on the mood of their
respective jockey by tomorrow. :-)
% of portfolio in the market - 85%
% in cash - 15%
Year to date return - 77%
Nov 20, 2009
It
was a "so-so" day for me today. I also played the market defensively
given what happened in the Dow last night. I sound like a broken record
but could the Dow have topped already at 10471? One of these days, I'll
be correct (haha). My proprietary Tsupitero index also gave me a sell
signal today.
I
was able to day-trade PX today and I was able to make one peso. When it
dropped, I went long again. I tried to day-trade MER but I was
only able to make one peso as well (haha). I lost half a % in my
portfolio today mostly because of I sold my position in
I-remit two flucs down. I bought a miniscule position in PNX.
It's
such a strange market right now with some issues going to the roof like
ISM and some issues collapsing like MEG. Stock selection is of utmost
importance right now.
% of portfolio in the market - 25%
% in cash - 75%
Year to date return - 77%
Nov 19, 2009 (Evening
Edition)
When
I incur a big loss such as today, I try to reflect and think what I did
wrong.
After having thought about it, I concluded that there were three things
that I did wrong:
1. I
am not filtering my trades - Given that the market is trending up, I was
thinking that I could just "hit anything that moves", so to speak, and
easily make money. I forgot that this isn't the same bull market that we
saw 3 or 4 months ago. This time, it is very, very selective. If you
pick the wrong stock, you could still lose money, despite the whole
market going up.
2. I
have increased my position sizes in the last two weeks - Again, given
that I have the assumption that the market is beginning to trend up, I
have decided to become more aggressive. Given what happened to me today,
I think I need to normalize my position-sizes once again and stay
grounded.
3. I
became sloppy and am no longer following my trading strategy - I should
not deviate from what I normally do. My NI trade today was certainly out
of character from me.
Tomorrow, I will surely no longer make the same mistakes as what I did
today.
Nonetheless, the market was up 30 points today yet I lost almost 3% in
my portfolio. This market is telling me something.
% of portfolio in the market - 30%
% in cash - 70%
Year to date return - 77%
Nov 19, 2009
I
had a nightmare in the markets today. I just couldn't do anything right.
I guess it's just one of those days.
I
bought LC at the open and sold one fluc lower. I loaded up on NI cause I
thought it was oversold already. I sold one fluc lower. I sold my
supposed monster (ACR) with a four fluc loss (ouch!). I just realized
that ACR was mortal. The real monster, ANI, which I did buy yesterday, I
sold too early. I sold my FPH with a one fluc gain.
Despite all these hyping of JAP of his "magnificent 7", people now
getting burned left and right. Something is just not right anymore with
those stocks. Will he really be able to push all those stocks all at the
same time? Most probably not so you got to be very, very selective. I
did buy another JAP stock this morning. It's a relatively new JAP stock.
I hope that turns out ok.
The
market was up 30 points today but I did not feel it at all. Is it just
me or is the market really acting strange? The Dow is make or break
tonight or tomorrow night. We will see either a gigantic move to the
upside or a massive drop.
By
the way, monsters only show up once every year. The rest of the year,
they hibernate in their caves. The only ones left are the Chuckys, the
JAPs, the Lolos, the RVOs, the MVPs and the RSAs - the real true to life
monsters in the market! haha
% of portfolio in the market - 30%
% in cash - 70%
Year to date return - 77%
Nov 18, 2009
Chucky just assassinated the monster (LIHC) today. Now do you know why
you want to avoid Chucky as much as possible. I was still able to make
P1.00 in that position though.
I
got whipsawed in PX by one fluc again. I think I have bad luck in that
stock. I won't trade that one anymore starting tomorrow. It's just not
for me.
I
positioned today on my next "monster". I made sure Chucky wasn't in that
stock.
I
also bought a miniscule position in V and one of the "GEM" stocks.
The
Dow looks to me like it will make a parabolic move to the upside. All it
needs to do now is to convincingly breakout above that psychological
10500 level. I'm crossing my fingers and my toes.
% of portfolio in the market - 60%
% in cash - 40%
Year to date return - 80%
Nov 17, 2009
I
tried to day-trade NI and PX today but I just ended up selling at "same
prices" for both. I learned my lesson in the last two days though so I
lessened my position-sizing today.
For
the last few days, I have been getting whipsawed in the Lopez stocks
cause I may have been buying them prematurely. Today, I loaded in one of
them. I believe, this time, Lopez is now really in play once again.
My
"monster" has awoken. Don't make it angry (hihihi).
% of portfolio in the market - 60%
% in cash - 40%
Year to date return - 77%
Nov 16, 2009
It
was another whipsaw day in the market today as I got whipsawed in one
fluc each in ISM and EDC. ISM looked strong at the early part of the day
so I bought it but when I saw that it wasn't rebounding either, I sold
it again. EDC, don't ask, I'm banging my head why I even bothered buying
that one.
I
did find something that looked very, very interesting today. Could it be
the next "monster stock"? I bought tons of it today.
% of portfolio in the market - 40%
% in cash - 60%
Year to date return - 77%
Nov 14, 2009
I
got really pissed by the market yesterday as you can see from the entry
in my blog yesterday. I think I may have been tricked by the market. For
the last few days, stocks like PX, NI, CPM, ACR and ISM have been
continuing to surge and act like it was bound to rise forever.
Admittedly, I myself have been fooled into thinking that these stocks
were now "buy the dips" and that their targets were unimaginably high.
With the drop yesterday, I began buying the dips. The thing is, after
they dropped, there was just no signs of any strength in these issues
anymore. After looking at their charts once again, I thought to myself,
what the hell am I thinking?!! These stocks are extremely overbought and
should be avoided already. The most dangerous thing any trader should do
is to look at just one direction. That's exactly what I did yesterday
and I paid the price. I lost 2% in my portfolio.
Can
you believe I got whipsawed more than 5 times yesterday in several
issues?! Of course, the coward in me, made me lose just one or two
fluctuations per trade but, with the number of times I got hit
yesterday, it's like I got hit big already in one trade. I lost one or
two fluctuations in CPM, PX, I, TUNA and NI. I was so pissed yesterday
that my emotions got in my way. My only remaining position that was
still in the black was RLC. I decided to take profits in it already in
order to offset my losses for the day. Yeah, that was a bad idea.
Incidentally, I was also able to dispose my last remaining shares in PO
yesterday. Although my PO trade did not work out as I expected with the
emergence of Noynoy, I was still able to make some 10% in that position
trade.
Despite my blunder yesterday though, I am happy that I was able to add
another 12% in my portfolio this week alone. We still have one and a
half month 'til the end of the year. At the very least, one should be
able to make a 100% return on his or her portfolio this year, barring
any collapse between now and Dec 31. It's certainly quite a long shot
for me to make another 22% in one and a half month's time in order to
make a 3 digit return for the year but you can be sure that I'm going to
use all my powers from this point on to help me achieve that goal. Watch
me!
% of portfolio in the market - 0%
% in cash - 100%
Year to date return - 78%
Nov 13, 2009
All
I can say is, F__kin' Friday the 13th!!!
% of portfolio in the market - 0%
% in cash - 100%
Year to date return - 78%
Nov 12, 2009
Today was just a crazy day. With the number of stocks that are going up,
I just didn't know anymore what stock to focus on.
I
sold all my MEG for some coffee money. I sold my FGEN at same price. I
got whipsawed one fluc in ACR. I bought PX but I chickened out and I
sold at cost. I bought one of JAP's magnificent 7. I bought another high
flyer. My main blooper for the day was selling my "former JAP stock",
PNX, with a two fluc loss.
I
hit the jackpot today in ISM. I was able to place 30% of the portfolio
at 0.0525 and I sold it an average price of 0.065. That trade alone
produced a 7% move on my portfolio. Thank you God!
The
crazy thing about what is happening right now is that there are only a
handful of stocks that are actually moving and the rotation that I have
been expecting towards the mainstream issues just isn't really
materializing. The laggards are still laggards and the very strong ones
are still very strong. Should we continue to stick with the strong ones,
or, should we transfer to the weak ones? NI is a f_ckin' monster!!!
Tomorrow is Friday the 13th, my lucky day!
% of portfolio in the market - 80%
% in cash - 20%
Year to date return - 80%
Nov 11, 2009
I
probably had the most wonderful trading day of the year today. :-)
I
bought a lot more of my "high-flying" stock today. I was able to
day-trade ACR. I was able to buy at 1.06 and 1.08 and I sold at 1.38. I
wasn't planning to sell my LIHC but I just had to reduce some of my
positions cause it's too many already. I bought a small position in a
stock where JAP got stuck at the highs. I also bought a small position
in a Lopez stock. I lost two flucs in CYBR. I bought more properties
today towards the close.
My
only regret for the day was selling all of my NI at 6.90. The ticker was
telling me to hold but I had a predisposition to sell at 7.00 cause I
thought that that was a tough level to break. It really pays to use more
of your instinct than your mind in trading.
The
last time that I traded NI, I sold down the stock from 5.50 to 5.20. My
boss told me that JAP got angry with me for doing so. JAP is such a sport
for still making me money this time around, unlike the other guy who
trades ABA, ATN, LIHC and MUSX. If it had been the other guy, he would
have killed me right away if he found out that I bought back his stock
but not JAP. I love you JAP! Muah!!!
Finally, the market appears to have convincingly broken out of its
consolidation today. Could we possibly be heading towards 3400 already?
Yesteday was actually the first time that I became bullish with this
market since early August. All we need now is for the Dow to convincingly breakout of its range as
well. The level to break is 10400. Cross your fingers!
% of portfolio in the market - 110%
% in cash - 0%
Year to date return - 73%
Nov 10, 2009
Did
the market do what I just think it did - breakout above its range?!!
Cross your fingers!
I
took profits from all my ACR today. I sold half of my NI today. I
positioned in three property issues today. And, I bought a high-flyer.
My only blooper for the day was getting whipsawed one fluc in FGEN. But,
overall, it was all good! :-)
I
positioned in some property issues today because I think it's just about
time to sell mining and buy the "real" issues like property and/or
banks. There is only one mining issue that I plan to hold.
For
those who are into mining, watch PX! PX is the leader of the pack, thus,
once PX drops, the whole sector may be dragged down with it. I would
look at PX now like when MER was doing at 250.00 before it climbed up to
300.00.
% of portfolio in the market - 58%
% in cash - 42%
Year to date return - 68%
Nov 9, 2009
I
had a pretty good day in the market today, despite I got hit a bit in
BPC.
I
lost a couple of fluctuations in BPC but it was a good thing I was able
to load up on some mining issues that went berserk today. I was able to
day-trade ACR.
Can
somebody please tell me what the hell is going on with PX?!
Congratulations to all those who made money in this one!
By
the way, what did the PSEi do today? haha
% of portfolio in the market - 43%
% in cash - 57%
Year to date return - 66%
Nov 6, 2009
Now,
do you understand why I think the market is so confusing at this point?
I swear, I just can't read the market right now so in the meantime, I'm
happy to just avoid those sudden drops in the market just like what
happened to MER today.
I
played the market very conservatively by just day-trading most of my
positions. I was able to day-trade ANI, MER, and LCB. I made coffee
money on those trades. I was able to sell all of my FAF, the stock which
I bought for a 50% discount from the highs, with some coffee money as
well. I went long in a Lopez stock though.
I
wonder what the market brings on Monday. Your guess is as good as mine.
% of portfolio in the market - 23%
% in cash - 77%
Year to date return - 66%
Nov 5, 2009
What
a very, very confusing market this is?!! Some are losing a lot of money
and some are making a fortune. The PSEi looks very strong but the Dow
looks like is going to plunge. I don't understand the markets right now
so, just to be on the safe side, I just day-traded and liquidated my
positions.
Yesterday, I was brave enough to place 70% of the portfolio into the
market because I felt very, very certain that the US markets were going
to rally. Very seldom am I very, very sure nowadays so when I am as
certain as yesterday, I just had to put a big position already. While
the Dow did rally last night, I got very worried about its behavior by
the close. It seems to me that there is now an inability of that market
to rebound.
Thus, I ended up selling almost all of what I bought yesterday with some
coffee money. I saw VLL and looked like a bullish reversal to me so I
bought it. Unfortunately, it didn't look strong anymore by the close so
I sold it back with a 2 fluc loss. I was able to day-trade BPC.
I
feel like I just want to step back and watch the bulls and the bears
slug it out at current levels. This isn't the way to make money in the
market. I'm basically just churning on my trades at this point.
% of portfolio in the market - 10%
% in cash - 90%
Year to date return - 66%
Nov 4, 2009
It
was pretty good day for me in the markets today. My only blooper was
that I got whipsawed again in MER. The "high-flyer" that I bought
yesterday, PRIM, was a life saver as it was able to offset my losses in
MER. It's unfortunate that I only bought a little of it.
I
loaded up on the market today because I think the US markets will
rebound. I bought tons of MEG, MPI and a mining stock.
Because of my experience in PRIM, I discovered a new trading system -
buy the ultra-basura stocks that dropped by 50% from its highs. I bought
a miniscule position in one of them again today (hehe).
% of portfolio in the market - 73%
% in cash - 27%
Year to date return - 66%
Nov 3, 2009
I
had a hell of a time in MER today. I tried to position on it but I ended
up cutting losses by the end of the day. I lost almost 1% of the
portfolio in that trade. It's a good thing I was able to offset some of
my losses by day-trading WEB. I knew something was very fishy with that
buy-in of Tatang in MER but I still bought it nevertheless (haha). I
bought a miniscule position in a recent high-flyer that has already
dropped by 50% from its highs.
The
wild behavior of the Dow recently indicates that both the bulls and the
bears are very nervous of their positions. Tonight and/or tomorrow night
would be very critical. From the way I see it, I think the markets are
already dead. They just couldn't turn off the respirator yet, so to
speak (hehe). But with the irrationality of the markets recently, who
knows what's going to happen next.
% of portfolio in the market - 13%
% in cash - 87%
Year to date return - 66%
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