Miko's Blog for May 2012

I have to admit, yesterday, I was already thinking that the market was a bull-trap. Today, we have another bear-trap. I hope we don't get another bull-trap by tomorrow. To say that this market is now wild is an understatement.

The added volatility today was due to a confluence of events - drop of Dow, MSCI, Moody's and even the better than expected GDP report. We'll probably be back to normal by tomorrow. Still, this market is now in rally mode.

Where is CAL heading? I don't know if even the insiders know. Saludo ako. I don't think I've ever seen anything like it. Day-traders are having so much fun with CAL as they buy at the opening and sell more than 10%, 5 seconds after. The thing is, if you just held on to it, you would have made a lot more. Of course, that's hindsight.

DMC was definitely one of the highlights of the day as almost P3.5 billion worth of the stock traded today due to its inclusion in the MSCI by tomorrow. Its Credit Suisse against the world in DMC. Local funds seem to be taking advantage of his buying in order to sell their positions but is Credit Suisse really that stupid? I'm sure he knows he is being used as an "exit mechanism". We'll know in the next couple of days who is making the right call.

May 29, 2012 (10:30 p.m.)

The bulls have won. The market is a failed bear flag.

CAL still going and is now up 52% from its IPO price. This behavior of CAL reminds me of CPM during its heydays. Your guess is as good as mine as to how high this will reach.

PXP too continued to rocket higher today and is now trading at P72 billion market cap. Wow! Can it actually make P5 billion income this year? Of course not but who cares?!

Has JAP stocks finally bottomed?

I still don't understand why EDC did not participate in this Lopez run. Normally, it was always FGEN that was the black sheep among the Lopez group. I guess this time, it is now EDC.

May 28, 2012 (9:30 p.m.)

Market is now in "the calm before the storm". I'm giving the bulls and the bears a 50/50 chance to rally or go to hell and meet Diablo. :-)

Is CAL a JAP? It certainly feels and looks like one.

All Lopez issues moving up now in the cycle. Unfortunately, for those who bought EDC, you might have to change the Feng Shui of your workstation.

PXP just continued to roar higher. Despite unbelievable valuations, could 50.00 be possible?

May 27, 2012 (10:00 p.m.)

Sorry Tsupiteros, I'm kind of lazy to update my website nowadays cause the market is quite "nakakawalang-gana". Besides, I have no buy recommendations right now and almost everything is a "short-term sell".

A lot of people are asking me about the JAP stocks. Well, unfortunately, although some of them are quite low already, I just don't see any signs that they are bottoming out already. I guess, "binibilangan" pa ni JAP those funds that are selling. If you are still holding JAP up to now, I guess it's just too late to sell already. Of course, that's just my opinion.

PXP is the only rose among the thorns but is the stock's P64 billion market cap justified? A P64 billion company should earn at least P4 billion this year. Yes, they found black gold but when will they be able to make money out of that oil right now?

May 24, 2012 (9:30 p.m.)

Despite the big reversal in the Dow last night, our market was still weak today. I see bear flags everywhere but...

PXP was the only rose among the thorns in the market today. With the stock forming a bullish higher low, all the big local funds started getting in. I don't think I saw Macquarie buying anymore though, hmmm...

MJC/MJIC seemed to have finally peaked today.

VMC is quite interesting. Last traded was 1997 so a lot of those who got stuck are liquidating now. That's but natural but who are these people buying the stock now and why?

May 23, 2012 (9:30 p.m.)

The big story of the day was the CALata IPO. Almost 13 million shares were traded today. That's already a third of the entire shares offered, 36 milllion. Of course, not all the selling today came from the IPO. Some of those 13 million shares were from day-traders like me (oops, haha). SUN Securities seems to be the stabilization fund and he bought almost 8 million shares. So, does that mean that 5 million bought into the stock today and most of those 5 million simply day-traded? Let's just say half of the 5 million were day-traders. That means, of the 36 million shares offered, the real sellers were only about 10.5 million shares. I would guess that the stabilization fund is roughly a fourth or a third of the entire offering. Since SUN already bought 8 million shares today, he probably has only 1 to 4 million shares left to buy either tomorrow or in the next couple of days. That means, 36 - 10.5 + (1 or 4) = 21.5 to 24.5 million will be left on their own and will need new players in the stock for them to sell higher or lower. So, is the stock bullish or bearish? I have no idea. CAL doesn't have a chart (or a trend) yet. I'm merely explaining the supply and demand side of the stock. Prices go up because people are willing to bid up prices. Prices go down because people are willing to sell down.

May 22, 2012 (11:00 p.m.)

Is the Market a bear flag?

PX/PXP is phenomenal, given the current conditions of the market but I don't think I'll still be a buyer at these levels.

Aside from the obvious like PXP, I see some stocks behaving a lot differently from the rest of the market. These are the ones that you need to keep an eye on.

I bet there were a lot of nervous holders of the Calata IPO, given what has been happening recently. With the Dow up last night and tonight, I guess they can sleep a little more soundlier tonight. :-)

May 21, 2012 (11:30 p.m.)

Up 100, down 100, up 100...I hope you haven't been using breakout strategies, otherwise, you're dead already right now.

PXP, on the other hand, looks like a real breakout. That's maybe one out of 300 stocks. Other stocks like MBT and MEG, I don't know if they can be sustained.

Gatchi was a fluke, or, bumubuelo lang?

When an IPO is hyped as much as Facebook, you do not subscribe. Mark Zuckerburg is a genius for doing the IPO but an idiot for getting married. :-)

May 18, 2012 (5:30 a.m.)

After what happened yesterday, I was thinking that some foreign funds bought back but when I checked the stats, foreign funds were still sellers by P260 million. Obviously, it was the local funds who became very bullish in our market today. Given what has been happening recently, if I were long by P28 billion, it would be ideal for me if I've already sold at least half or a third. Foreign funds making a big gamble by not selling a lot up to now, in my opinion.

Congratulations to DMC, PGOLD and PXP for getting chosen in the MSCI Index. Why is PXP acting a lot stronger than DMC and PGOLD? Because they don't have Macquarie. Notice that OV too was very strong today. That has got nothing to do with the price of Oil.

JAP stocks seems to be quiet right now. I heard some funds began liquidating in the last few days and JAP wasn't very happy about it. Ganyan talaga. Everybody happy when prices go up but when prices starts coming down, that's when in-fighting begins. The same story over and over again.

Diablo is trying to stabilize EG at current levels but the Lord of Destruction isn't in the game, it's in the stock.

May 15, 2012 (11:00 p.m.)

P2 billion net foreign selling today. P25 billion to go?!!

Did the mining sector finally bottom-out today? - "First Out, First In"

Prime candidates for tomorrow's announcement of who will be included in the MSCI Index are JGS, DMC and MPI. Place your bets!

Can DIABLO save EG?

May 14, 2012 (8:30 p.m.)

P500 million net foreign selling today. P27 billion to go?!!

Any stock that is still trending up up to now is suspect. Even AEV, which looks real good on the chart (because the foreign funds might be propping it up) is now suspect.

People buying ROCK are either stoned or "nababato". :-)

May 10, 2012 (9:00 p.m.)

Clearly, technicals now deteriorating across the board. Among the indices, only the Holdings index is keeping the market afloat. Even my proprietary Tsupitero Index broke down already today. Still, that doesn't mean it won't bounce.

The mining sector was badly hit this week led by the JAP stocks. Why? Because that's where all the locals are positioned in. If you'll notice, it is just the locals that are selling. The foreign funds are still quite optimistic of our market, so far. I'm not sure though how optimistic they will be if the market breaks below 5150. AEV, being manipulated today to save the index?

Unbelieveable move by NI today. I bet everybody got the stunned when they saw the stock trading at 7.90 but, I bet, everybody got more stunned when they saw it trading above 10.00 at the end of the day. JAP selling ORE and DIZ and going all-in in NI?

May 8, 2012 (10:30 p.m.)

Market is trying to hold above that 5200 line but what is a bit of a concern for me today is that, today was the highest net foreign selling in one day since the beginning of the year - P764 million (without block sales). Remember, foreign funds are net long in our market by P28 billion. If these funds start reversing their positions, the market is going to have a big problem.

Finally! JAP has found a bottom or is it just a temporary bottom?

PHES too appears to have finally found a bottom but, again, is it just a temporary bottom?

Absolutely nothing surprising about the big drop of FDC. With EW already listed, there's just nothing left to look forward to.

May 7, 2012 (8:30 p.m.)

In this life, we must realize that nothing happens by chance. If things didn't work out as we expected them to, there is always a reason for it. And when we look back at the events in our lives, and finally see how our so-called "disappointments" actually turned out to be "blessings-in-diguise'!

Jerry, William and Felipe

May 3, 2012 (9:30 p.m.)

The market was up by a massive 71 points but unless you were in PXP or one of the big caps, you hardly felt it today. In fact, if you were in JAP, you would have thought that the market was down by 100 points.

The onslaught in the JAP stocks got triggered by the worse than expected earnings from ORE. That's the problem with the JAP stocks, sometimes, prices just get too ahead of what is really happening with the company.

With the big seller in PXP now gone, prices are now flying. PXP should not have dropped to as low as 20.30 if not for that selling by Tower Securities.

Lolo seems like is 10 feet down under. Gatchi looks like is in a coma. Is JAP getting sick as well? Should traders buy the big caps instead and stop trading these basuras, or, could this be an opportunity to buy these basura stocks low as the market will eventually rotate from the big caps to the basuras?

May 2, 2012 (11:30 p.m.)

Unless you were in FED, you would have been quite frustrated with this market today if you were into the speculative issues. The big caps just continue to power higher.

The big story of the day though was BLOOM. A disclosure came out today wherein more than a billion shares of private placements were done at P7.50. Were these immediately saleable? I guess they were because I don't understand where those big sellers today came from. I'm still not buying this at current levels. They should change the ticker symbol of this to GLOOM.

Another stock that continued to plunge today was PXP. Could the stock finally have found a bottom today at 20.30? Only Mr. Tower knows. I wonder how many left he needs to sell. Notice that PX is a lot stronger than PXP now. That's because there isn't a giant seller there in PX unlike in PXP. Still, I'm carefully watching both issues right now.