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Miko's Blog for
May 2009
May 29, 2009
I made a little money in the market
today care of AGI and MPI. I sold all my AGI today cause it didn't look
strong and I was able to day trade MPI. I tried to position in PAX cause
it looked oversold but I just ended up cutting losses and selling at the
lows. I loaded up on a couple of property issues today and bought a
small position in a Chucky stock.
Rumor has it that a race is going on
between NI and LIHC. Notice that they are the same price right now. I
hope it's a race to the upside (hahaha).
The Dow appears to have held above
its support last night. I guess everybody's so scared of the markets
that there just wasn't anyone left who would sell. Admittedly, I was
guilty of that too. Let's see if the Dow can make a run towards the 9000
level from here.
% of portfolio in the market - 60%
% in cash - 40%
Year to date return - 29%
May 28, 2009
I panicked in AR today by selling at
0.005. Yes, people like me panic too. I got scared because the stock
might run out of buyers and I would not be able to sell if I wanted to.
Stupid me for buying AR instead of LC or MA.
I also had another disaster trade
today by buying FPH at the highs and selling near the close.
I was able to day-trade OM today.
All my other positions are already up
from yesterday's close so I just held on to them.
% of portfolio in the market - 40%
% in cash - 60%
Year to date return - 28%
May 27, 2009
Finally, our computer went back to
normal again. It just hangs a couple of times in a day. :-(
Anyway, I bought back some positions
in the market again today. I bought a couple of mining stocks. Mining certainly is
in vogue right now, especially with the Dollar dropping again. I bought
a property-related issue. I also bought a miniscule position in my
favorite Chucky stock. I got killed in GEO. I bought at the open and
lost two flucs. It's a good thing I was able to day-trade V.
What can I say? If you can't beat
them (the bulls), join them! hehe
% of portfolio in the market - 50%
% in cash - 50%
Year to date return - 30%
May 26, 2009
I didn't trade anything today. Aside
from the fact that the market sucked today, our computer was still not
working properly (hayyy!).
There are plenty of reasons to be
bearish on this market:
1. The PSEi's uptrend appears to be slowing down;
2. All the indices are now approaching their
resistances in the monthly chart;
3. For the last couple of weeks, the market's ascent
is already being led by the 3rd liners. Some of the blue chips are just
moving sideways;
4. We are now approaching June, which is no longer a
bullish month, and is now nearing the 3rd quarter, which is normally
bearish.
5. The Dow is no longer trending up but is now moving
sideways (toppish perhaps?); and,
6. Gold, which is a "flight to safety", has been
starting to trend up. On the other hand, the Dollar, which has begun to
trend back down, may trigger an exodus away from the US Stock Market.
Could today's downswing already be the start of the
big correction of the market? Don't ask me. I have a bearish bias
because I am totally liquid right now. Objectively speaking, the market
is still trending up in the short-term up to today.
% of portfolio in the market - 0%
% in cash - 100%
Year to date return - 30%
May 25, 2009
I'm happy to have squeezed another 5%
profits in my portfolio today. I sold all my FPH because it didn't look
like it could break above 30.00. I sold all my PX and my minuscule
position in APX too. Everybody's relax to buy today because there is no
US trading tonight. I prefer to get ahead of the crowd and sell today
instead of tomorrow. For the last few weeks, everytime I become almost
liquid, the markets goes up a lot. Maybe I'm the indicator but I don't
care. I'm pretty sure one of these days, I'll be correct already (hahaha).
Congratulations to all those who made
money in PAX! That was phenomenal!
I didn't day-trade anymore today
because our computer was still not working properly. I'm a spoiled brat
when it comes to this. The worst thing I would want is to lose money
because I couldn't execute my orders in the computer.
I don't know if my fears of the
market are real or not. I can't help it. I think this is just a bear
market rally. The Dow is obviously stalling. Even our market is now
stalling. Notice that the PSEi isn't going up a lot anymore and it is
merely the 3rd liners that are moving. I think the end of this rally is
just around the corner. It will come like a thief in the night when
nobody is looking. I remember what happened to me in Feb 2007 when the
Chinese market collapsed. I never want that to happen to me again so I'm
taking profits even if there is no signal yet to get out. I don't care.
My goal for this rally is to break-even from my losses last year and
I've already done that and more. I will just make money in the last
quarter of the year.
% of portfolio in the market - 0%
% in cash - 100%
Year to date return - 30%
May 22, 2009
I was very pissed this morning. I
wasn't able to trade because our computers were down for most of the
morning. The PSE owes me a lot for all those missed opportunities. I
really can't understand why they couldn't fix their system since it is
repetitive everyday. They say, they don't want to fix it anymore because
the new system will be coming online by October. So, is it going to be
this way until October?
% of portfolio in the market - 70%
% in cash - 30%
Year to date return - 25%
May 21, 2009
I loaded up on some counter-cyclical
stocks today. I finally found something to put my money in the market
without being worried about whether the Dow will fall or not. I bought a
ton of a mining stock today. Why would it be counter-cyclical? Because
Gold looks poised to test $1000, if not higher. I also bought a ton of a
stock that has been lagging the market for several weeks now but
suddenly was extremely powerful today - a Lopez stock. Why would this be
counter-cyclical? Because it's not a high-flyer where a lot of people
could take profits in. Furthermore, I think there may be a play in this
stock because of the upcoming stockholders' meeting of MER on Tuesday.
I sold my PIP today because this
might get affected if the whole market goes down. I was also able to
day-trade PNB.
% of portfolio in the market - 70%
% in cash - 30%
Year to date return - 25%
May 20, 2009
I took profits from AGI and FLI
today. As usual, I think I may have taken profits too early again. I was
also able to day-trade FLI and DFNN.
I bought something to quench my
thirst today.
I can't get myself to be aggressive
anymore. I'm not only using a small portion of the portfolio, I'm also
taking profits too early. These are the times that I wish I had more
guts. Welcome to Basura Wonderland!!!
% of portfolio in the market - 15%
% in cash - 85%
Year to date return - 25%
May 19, 2009
I don't which is more painful: being
"all-in" and see the Dow drop by 300 points; or, be completely liquid
and see the Dow climb by 300 points. I guess the former is more painful
since it will entail actual losses in the market but the latter is
equally frustrating.
I took profits from my TBGI today and
I was able to day-trade MPI. I also bought a couple of property issues.
I really wonder if there is anyone
who is making a killing in the market right now, net of his losses last
year.
Obviously, those who are making a lot
of money right now are those who are using buy and hold strategies.
However, most of those who use buy and hold strategies right now, also
used buy and hold strategies last year so I'm not sure if they've
already recovered their losses last year.
Day-traders, on the other hand, were
very well protected last year. While they still probably lost some
money, they are nowhere near the losses that the buy and hold guys
incurred last year. Although they hardly lost money last year, they
hardly made money this year, if they were still day-traders up to now.
Those in the middle like me lost half
as much as the buy and hold guys but a lot more than the day-traders.
I'm also performing exactly the same way: I'm making a lot more than the
day-traders but I'm making a lot less than the buy and hold people.
In hindsight, the worst strategy
combination was to have used a buy and hold strategy last year and a
day-trading strategy this year. If you did that, you probably have not
recovered much of your losses yet up to now. The best strategy
combination was a day-trading strategy last year and a buy and hold
strategy this year. If you did that, you probably have made at least
double your capital already from your initial capital in the beginning
of 2008. At the very least though, all traders, irregardless of your
style of trading, ought to have broken even already from
your losses last year by now.
If you are looking for a gauge to
your performance, the PSEi is up by 21.70% and my proprietary index is
up by 14.84% as of yesterday. If you are making 20% ytd, then, you are
doing ok. If you are making 40% or more ytd, then, you are quite an
exceptional trader. If you haven't made money up to now, I suggest you
take my one-on-one course. :-)
% of portfolio in the market - 20%
% in cash - 80%
Year to date return - 24%
May 18, 2009
I sold all my positions again today.
I can't help it. I'm just not comfortable buying at the highs and using
a buy and hold strategy. I already lost 3% from the highs of my equity
line just trying to squeeze a little bit more profit from this market. I
knew I should have quit one week ago. Objectively speaking though, the
market is still holding above its support levels but I don't want to be
caught with my pants down when the trend indeed reverses.
I was able to buyback my "water"
today. What the heck?! One last gamble before we call it a day (haha).
I haven't smoked a single cigarette
since Thursday, which is a day after our anniversary date. I noticed
that, after I quit smoking, I began losing money already. Hmmm...the
market may be telling me something. :-)
% of portfolio in the market - 5%
% in cash - 95%
Year to date return - 23%
May 15, 2009
I feel like I'm underperforming in
the last one week in this market. It's such a dilemma to trade this
market right now. You're not comfortable with it because it's at such a
high level already and the Dow isn't exactly trending up strongly
anymore, yet, our market is just continuing to power higher. Somehow, I
just can't get myself to put in more than 50% of my portfolio in the
market at this point.
I took profits in my DMC and PIP
today. As usual, I think I took profits too early. I took a small loss
in BRN and TBGI. I'm just not comfortable holding a stock that just goes
back and forth around my cost. I always get tempted to buy stocks that
haven't moved yet so that I could get ahead of everybody else but I just
regret it in the end because I don't have the patience to hold it
anyway. I guess a Tsupitero will always be a Tsupitero.
I made money in DMC today but I was
quite disappointed. I bought at 5.50 and 5.90 yesterday. I sold
everything today at 6.20 and 6.10. I was able to buyback around half at
6.40 and was able to sell it again at 6.90. I don't regret any of my
transactions there but I was just sad that I had to sell it at 6.20 and
6.10 early in the day. I wouldn't have done it any differently though.
I bought a small position in a mining
company today and tons of Andrew Tan stocks. If I'm not mistaken,
property is in vogue once again.
There are two schools of thought
about position-sizing at this part of the trend that is bugging my mind
right now. The first school of thought states that, the uptrend of the
market is rarely this way, therefore, when the market is trending this
way, you should be "all-in". The other school of thought states that,
when the trend is "matured" already, you should pyramid by buying less
and less so that, when the reversal of the trend comes, you will be able
to preserve most of your profits. Which is the better philosophy? To be
honest, I'm quite torn right now between the two.
% of portfolio in the market - 50%
% in cash - 50%
Year to date return - 25%
May 14, 2009
Did I make a wrong call on the Dow
last night?!!...it cost me another 2% of the portfolio.
The markets can really be a trap at
times. I remember yesterday, everyone in our office was already saying,
"Don't think, just Buy!". Admittedly, I got caught with the emotions as
well and I became extraordinarily aggressive yesterday. I ended up being
long on 60% of the portfolio with most of my positions closing the day
at my costs. The market gave me a spanking today for being haphazard
yesterday.
The first thing I did today was to
sell the weakest link in my portfolio, which was GEO. I gave the stock
up to around 10:30 a.m. to rebound before selling. Unfortunately, it was
still trading at its lows by that time so I sold. I still ended up
selling at the lows as the stock eventually climbed back up to 0.61.
Stupid me!
I also sold my AT with a one
fluctuation loss.
I averaged up on one of my winning
positions today.
I was fortunate enough to buy the
strongest stock in the market today - DMC. Is it possible that this too
would do an SCC?
The Dow appears to have broken below
its support already last night, right? Are you bearish now? Somehow, I
don't think this is the end of the rally. Why? Because all the
commentators and analysts in Bloomberg think it is.
% of portfolio in the market - 60%
% in cash - 40%
Year to date return - 22%
May 13, 2009
I had a semi-disaster of day in the
market today as most of what I bought turned out to be weak by the
close. I really wanted to load up again on the portfolio today because I
think the Dow has already turned the corner last night and may now form
another higher high. Unfortunately, the market doesn't quite agree with
me as some took today's upswing as an opportunity to take profits. I
ended the day losing 1.5% in my portfolio due to the numerous small
losses I incurred throughout the day.
Yes, I got fooled in Lopez again.
That's it. I'm through with Lopez. You can have Lopez and shove it up
your ass!
I ended the day buying a "nickel"
stock, another mining stock, some "dessert" and my PIP, which I bought
yesterday.
% of portfolio in the market - 60%
% in cash - 40%
Year to date return - 24%
May 12, 2009
I think I may have forced my
day-trades today. As a result, I probably lost half a percent in my
portfolio. I guess the market was still quite tempting because I didn't
see any panic.
I bought MEG today but I ended up
selling just one fluctuation higher. I think I still lost some charges
in that trade. That's the problem when you fall in love with a stock.
You tend to trade it even if the conditions for buying it is not there.
I had a blooper today. I bought VLL
at the highs cause I saw that the stock didn't go down even if it was
trading at its psychological resistance at 1.50 and this was
despite all the property issues going down already. However, when I hit
it up, sellers began to pile up so I decided to just cut my losses cause
I don't want to hold something overnight that is at its highs and didn't
close above my cost.
I did buy something though that
looked very strong at the close, PIP.
% of portfolio in the market - 15%
% in cash - 85%
Year to date return - 26%
May 11, 2009
I was able to squeeze a little bit
more profits from the market today since I was able to take profits in
my MEG at the highs.
Lopez still sucks. I ended up selling
my EDC at cost once again cause it still remained weak. I've been
thinking, if I didn't play any Lopez stock for the last three weeks, my
portfolio would probably be up by another 5%. Isn't it weird that these
foreign funds are currently selling the Lopez stocks right now when
those stocks are actually the ones that are low right now and they are
currently chasing those high flyers, which are currently making 52-week
highs already. Who ever said the market was rational?
I'm almost 100% liquid again. I can't
help it. I'm really quite paranoid of this market already. I'm sure I'll
be regretting this tomorrow if the Dow climbs up again tonight. Oh well,
better safe than sorry.
% of portfolio in the market - 5%
% in cash - 95%
Year to date return - 26%
May 7, 2009
The nice thing about being liquid at
times is that you get to feel what the bears are feeling. Admittedly,
being almost liquid the last couple of days made me feel a bit
frustrated and left out. What can I do? Prices are simply making new
highs and there's just no opportunity to get in unless you buy up, which
is quite risky.
Today finally gave me the opportunity
to get in. No, I didn't plan on buying today. I actually was planning to
stay mostly liquid if the market stayed down. But the market still
looked very strong so I decided to buy again. I guess I will just have
to accept the fact that I will lose money at the end of this trend. I
might just end up losing more (in opportunity losses) if I don't get in
into the trend now. I still haven't learned. I need to accept the
reality that it is almost impossible to pick the tops when prices are
trending.
I bought only two stocks today - my
favorites, MEG and EDC. I think MEG will be above 1.00 by May 14, which
is the offering date of its stock rights. I also think the Lopez stocks
(EDC, FPH and FGEN) are good to go next. :-)
% of portfolio in the market - 70%
% in cash - 30%
Year to date return - 25%
May 7, 2009
I lost one fluc today by trying to
day-trade EDC and FGEN. It's a good thing I was able to make money in
GEO and LIHC today so that offset my losses there.
I could compare the market right now
to a pyramiding scam. It's ok to invest in it as long as you were able
to invest early and cash in already. However, if you were caught
investing in the scam late in the game, you could lose it all.
It's tough to call the top and quit
while the market is climbing. The dilemma in doing this is that you will
miss the biggest moves in the market, which usually occur at the
tail-end of the rally. But I don't care, I'm contented with my 25% year
to date return. My goal for this rally is to break-even from my losses
last year and I have achieved that already. The public can have the last
5% of this rally. I'm calling it a day!
I only have one stock in my portfolio
right now, which I bought only today. I made sure that this stock could
be immune to a fall in the market because it has a mind of its own and
the public doesn't invest in it. Some would call it "water" but, no, it
isn't Manila Water. :-)
% of portfolio in the market - 5%
% in cash - 95%
Year to date return - 25%
May 6, 2009
Sold all my MEG today and I was even
able to do another round for some additional mullah (hihihi). I was also
able to day-trade COAT today.
I couldn't find anything worth buying
anymore.
% of portfolio in the market - 10%
% in cash - 90%
Year to date return - 25%
May 5, 2009
What a day!!! The market has indeed
broken out and is now trending. Everybody has the impression that this
is still just a bear market rally. What if it's already the real thing?!
Damn, I think I sold too much today. I think I'm now under-positioned.
I sold my EDC today. I sold all the
ICT that I bought yesterday. I sold all my TUNA.
I bought only one stock today - MEG.
From the way it moved today, could Andrew Tan actually be gunning for
more than P1.00 before May 14?
% of portfolio in the market - 35%
% in cash - 65%
Year to date return - 23%
May 4, 2009
I added more to my Lopez stock today.
No, I didn't touch FGEN anymore. I bought a stock that starts with a
letter " I " and I also bought a small position in a "nickel stock".
Did the market do what I think it
just did today - breakout?!! Everybody's worried about that stress test
of the banks in the US. Boooo! hahaha
% of portfolio in the market - 65%
% in cash - 35%
Year to date return - 20%
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