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Miko's Blog for March 2012

Mar 29, 2012 (11:00 p.m.)

The PSE, along with Jakarta and Kuala Lumpur, were the only markets up in the whole Asian region today. Could the funds be shifting back to Southeast Asia?

The big story of the day was PHES. I knew that the stock would rally but 0.89 by the close?! Wow! Obviously, we won't see 0.68 anymore anytime soon. I can't believe PHES was even stronger than the much lighter ACE.

Just when I thought the ceiling plays were over, here comes VVT. ECP tried to do it but couldn't quite make it.

The new parabolas of the day - RFM and JGS. Do you notice that there is at least one parabola happening everyday among the second-line issues? Wow! The race is on on who's going to be next.

I can't believe NIKL still went higher today.

JAP is awfully quiet. Maybe he's on vacation.

There was a huge P1.5 billion block sale in AT today. Should we care? I don't see anything in the chart.

Tomorrow is the last day of the quarter. Could there be some window-dressing perhaps?

Mar 28, 2012 (11:00 p.m.)

With just a couple of plays from a select number of issues, the whole market still looks lazy to me. I expect both volume and volatility to decrease further as we enter the Holy Week unless, of course, world markets collapse.

NIKL was particularly exceptional but, with the company already announcing its earnings and dividends today, could this already be a "sell on the news" tomorrow?

I saw UBS buying MARC today and I was thinking to myself. Hmmm, could this be the same guys playing CHI. When I checked the PSE stock quotation report at the end of the day, UBS was a true foreign buyer. Bottom today at 3.00?

Mar 27, 2012 (11:30 p.m.)

Just came back from a short vacation. I think I should have extended it up to the Holy week.

The markets held above their support levels and is continuing to trend up but, although the market was up by 48 points today, I hardly felt it.

Foreign brokers seem to be very aggressive in buying CHI in the last couple of days. Mind you though, that I said "foreign brokers", not "foreign buying". There is a huge difference. Notice that buying of these "foreigners" are almost equal to the selling of COL. Who cares though as long as it continues to go higher.

While JAP stocks seems to be in the doldrums, there was a semi-panic in Gatchi stocks today. Could this be a chance to get out or an opportunity to get in? I'm leaning towards the latter but we'll probably know by the end of the week.

Notice that the ceiling plays have suddenly stopped once again. EURO tried to do it today but no one dared try bidding up at the ceiling. I guess some people have started getting burned by these ceiling plays already.

Mar 22, 2012 (11:00 p.m.)

Goldman Sachs just announced that stocks right now are at a buying opportunity of a lifetime. Those analysts must be on drugs. Aren't they like 7000 points late in giving this call on the Dow?

I'll be out for a short vacation during the weekend, thus, the next update of Tsupitero.com will already be on April 2, 2012. I'll update my blog on Monday though when I come back.

Mar 22, 2012 (7:30 p.m.)

Gold Fields has exercised the option after all and it is not true that there will be an investigation by the PSE on JAP stocks. All's well that ends well.

Could it be that LC have formed a medium-term trough already?

A couple of issues went to the ceiling again today - GPH, LSC and 2GO (formerly ATS). GPH is not a true ceiling. 2GO did not close at the ceiling anymore, which may indicate that it has already reached its peak. LSC, on the other hand, is a true ceiling but ... no comment. :-)

Nowadays, the money is made on these ceiling plays. Tough to trade the big caps or the second-liners. Tough to trade JAP. Tough to trade everything else. No ceiling, no buying!

Could it be that the market has already peaked in the medium-term at 5146? I've been trying to predict a peak in this market for quite sometime now. I'm bound to be right one of these days (haha).

Mar 21, 2012 (11:00 p.m.)

All of a sudden, there are bad news everywhere...

How true is it that Gold Fields did not pay LC? Wasn't he suppose to pay LC yesterday? Now, we know why LC has been dropping like a rock.

How true is it that the PSE will be investigating all the JAP stocks for price manipulation? I guess that explains why the sudden weakness in all the JAP issues today.

For the first time in so many weeks, foreign funds were net sellers today. Could we have finally peaked at 5146?

A lot of issues are trying to go to the ceiling but a lot of them are failing. For today, only those who bought ATS are the lucky ones. Gamblers, beware!

Mar 20, 2012 (11:30 p.m.)

While BLOOM and LMG continued to drop, MAKE went its separate way and climbed back up. This obviously indicates that MAKE is stronger than the other two.

I'd like to congratulate my comrades in HDI Securities as their ACR is finally up and running. After being locked up for more than a year, they are finally feeling the fruits of their labor.

Dow currently down 75 points as of this writing. Could this be the start of a much bigger correction or could this be another opportunity to buy? I hardly felt the downswing of the market today. I sure hope I don't feel it tomorrow.

Mar 19, 2012 (11:30 p.m.)

High-flyers BLOOM, MAKE and LMG seems to have lost their steam today. Obviously, they formed short-term peaks today. Although these stocks are not in any way related with each other, the market is now grouping them in one sector - the ultra-basura sector. If one starts to drop, the others may follow and vice versa.

Some Gatchi and JAP stocks are on the move once again. Market is now pricing in a "sure" one peso for PHES. Could it also be pricing in a "sure" 50.00 for DIZ?

Tsupiteros and Position-traders alike need to place one eye on the most important stock in the planet - AAPL. Where AAPL goes, the whole world goes along with it.

Mar 17, 2012 (2:00 p.m.)

Parabolic spike in the works! Are we going to break 5200? Certainly not impossible but we should be nearing the end of this 1000 point run from 4200. Tough to say where or when the exact peak will be though.

Stocks doing parabolic spikes like AGI, DMC and MPI, I would avoid already at this point.

BLOOM, MAKE and LMG have started the rotation to the 3rd line sector. With most big caps now being overbought, time to look for something faster.

JAP has been been consolidating for quite a while already. Could it be time for them to shine again as well? DIZ and ORE appears to be leading the pack now.

Did LC and MA finally bottom-out yesterday?

Among the big caps/second-liners, there is just one sector that I like right now - properties!

Mar 16, 2012 (1:00 a.m.)

Talk about a weird market. PSEi was up but there were more decliners than advancers. Some big caps doing parabolic spikes yet others are dropping like a rock. After 3 months of non-stop ascent by the market, I'm starting to get fatigued already. A lot of stocks getting whipsawish already. Year to date, foreign funds have already bought P20 billion worth of Philippine stocks. Will they still buy more? I have no idea when this run-up will end but I'm no longer fearful of getting left out. I have a 5200 on the PSEi and a 13500 on the Dow. Time to quit while you're ahead, or, just continue playing and just accept the fact that you'll get hit in the end?

Mar 15, 2012 (6:30 a.m.)

Can't understand why some people still buying DGTL. Isn't that going to be delisted already on the 26th?

It's the wild, wild, west with JAP. If you're going to trade JAP, be sure to check with your doctor first before trading.

Did Gold form a lower high? Could it actually be toppish? Major support is pegged at 1500.

Did CHIPS finally breakout from its very looooooooong consolidation? Absolutely no one buying CHIPS in the last few months except the jockey!

Gatchi and Chucky related brokers aggressively buying ACE. Something big must be coming up very, very soon!

Mar 13, 2012 (7:00 p.m.)

This market just doesn't want to die (haha). It's quite frustrating really for the bears and, even if you are a bull, you got to pick the right stock because this bull market isn't exactly a dart board. It's very selective.

I don't know what's the news with the banking sector but something obviously triggered its run-up today.

JAP is on the move once again but not all JAP stocks are moving. A friend of mine is just holding all of it so that he doesn't miss any of his moves.

While everybody is so busy with either PHES, WIN or WPI, the real jackpot Gatchi stock is actually ACE.

Mar 12, 2012 (9:30 p.m.)

GREEN is definitely green. I hope it doesn't turn red tomorrow.

MAKE my day! Unbelievable! I bet everybody's going to start changing names by tomorrow.

Other than that, the whole market seems to be stalling. Time to take a vacation? Yawn!

Mar 12, 2012 (12:00 a.m.)

Something very fishy happened in WPI last Friday. CLSA crossed 80 million shares at 0.69 and 0.70 last Friday and the market viewed it as a sign that the last batch of selling of CLSA was over and done with. From out of nowhere, Abacus and Papa aggressively sold down the stock. Eversince I've been monitoring this stock, I don't think I've ever seen Abacus and Papa accumulate the stock down below so, could this be a long-time "ipit"? Maybe but, notice that, if you combine the selling of both Abacus and Papa for the day, it comes out to almost 80 million shares as well. From the way I see it, Abacus and Papa bought out CLSA indeed, then, dumped it on the public. But why would they sell down if they bought the shares at P0.69 and P0.70? The conspiracy theory mind of mine is thinking, that isn't the real cost of the transaction.

After being very strong last Thursday, LIHC all of a sudden just gapped down by 4 cents without any reason at all. This doesn't happen to any normal stock. The sell down was obviously "sinadya", possibly to weed out the weak hands in the market. This just goes to show you, when you play with JAP stocks, you simply just have to believe or don't play it at all.

The strongest stock in the market last Friday was MAKE, formerly ATRK. The reason - the change in symbol. Now do you understand why JAP will change the name of DIZ to JinHao. I know, it's just too deep to be understood even by a Harvard graduate.

Last Friday marked the 3 year anniversary of the lows that the US markets formed on Mar 9, 2009. From that point, the Dow is up by exactly 101% and the PSEi is up by exactly 163%.

Mar 8, 2012 (10:30 p.m.)

Wild is an understatement for DIZ in the last two days. If you really think about it, 1:1 @ P5.00 rights isn't really bearish but the market simply took it as an excuse to sell. Of course, JAP became the ultimate contrarian and bought everybody out. Could it be that DIZ has bottomed out today at 32.05?

Did anyone notice the 27 million cross transaction in LIHC last Tuesday? Could it be true that Chucky is now totally out of LIHC? Could this be the same scenario as NI wherein a big stockholder was bought out by JAP at 3.00 to 5.00? With LIHC having a market cap of just P1 billion, this is a potential three bagger in the making! Take note, DIZ has a market cap of P3 billlion, while NI has a market cap of P10 billion.

I bet a lot of people are having a tough time trading JAP. To trade JAP profitably, you have to be either an ultra-Tsupitero, wherein you try and take a few flucs several times a day, or, you simply buy and believe. If you are somewhere in the middle, you won't make money.

Among the Gatchalian stocks, notice that it isn't WIN or PHES that was the strongest today, it was WPI. Could this be the beginning of WPI's uptrend? Could it be that CLSA has now been totally taken out?

There are only two groups of stocks to watch this year - JAP and Gatchi! Pick your fancy!

Mar 6, 2012 (11:00 p.m.)

Dow currently down 140 points as of this writing. Could this be the start of the correction for all world markets? I'll be damned if Dow still closes tonight unchanged.

Will JAP be immune? Well, if you base it on today's behavior, it doesn't seem like they'll be immune but who knows? Only JAP knows.

ACR broke out of its consolidation today. Could this be the start of something big, or, could this be another fluke?

GMA-7/GMAP certainly looks and feels like a "distribution phase" to me. If so, MVP will not bid any higher than P40 billion.

Mar 5, 2012 (9:00 a.m.)

With the way JAP stocks has been moving in the last few weeks, everybody in the PSE is now getting "forced" to play his stocks. You don't play JAP, you get left behind. I, myself, who doesn't like playing his stocks because of its whipsawish nature, have begun playing it already since a few weeks ago.

With the way GMA7 moved last Friday, could it be that MVP is going to bid higher than P40 billion? The main play is no longer GMAP but GMA7.

LMG and CIP should be interesting today.