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Miko's Blog for
March 2009
Mar 31, 2009
I bought some AGI today right after
the open. I was expecting prices to form a higher high was once again.
However, when it didn't move, I decided to sell it all back, including
what I bought yesterday. I think I just broke-even in that trade. I sold
BRN today. I took profits from my AT and SCC.
The only stock that I really bought
today was EDC.
I wrote yesterday in my newsletter
that today was going to be the real test for the bulls. Unfortunately, I
think the bulls failed. :-(
% of portfolio in the market - 40%
% in cash - 60%
Mar 30, 2009
While I forecasted the market right
in thinking that it was going to start correcting already, the stocks
that I sold last Friday (Andrew Tan stocks) continued to go up. No
choice, I had to buy higher again today - arrggg!
I lost one fluc in trying to
day-trade BRN but, at least, I was able to buy a small position in SCC.
Fortunately, the rumors were true as the stock declared a P6.00 cash
dividend this afternoon. Shit! I should have loaded up on this one!
I'm comfortably holding on to my
mining stock - AT! :-)
Market continued to be very resilient
today, with some select issues even moving up. Tomorrow will be the real
test cause it looks like the Bulls will get shaken out of the US markets
tonight.
% of portfolio in the market - 50%
% in cash - 50%
Mar 27, 2009
I cleaned my portfolio today. I took
profits from all my Andrew Tan positions today. I took profits from my
beloved IP. I also made a little profit from my small positions in some
illiquid stocks. My only blooper for the day was URC, which I sold at
cost.
I can't believe it. Everything that I
sold today, whether it be a profit or a loss, eventually ended up going
higher than where I sold it. I wanted to hold my Andrew Tan positions
but I just can't seem to discipline myself not to sell. It's really a
challenge.
I bought a power-related stock today
and a minuscule position in another Gokongwei stock.
Lopez (ex. MER) and the banks look
tired.
It's been one heck of a week. Whew!
Just remember, the rally will stop when everybody thinks that it's a
breakout already. :-)
% of portfolio in the market - 40%
% in cash - 60%
Mar 26, 2009
I felt I was under-positioned in this
market so I increased my exposure to 80% of my portfolio. I bought a
little bit of Andrew stocks today. I sold my LC at cost because I didn't
feel comfortable with it. I took profits in LIHC because it was the
weakest link in my portfolio. I bought the strongest mining stock in the
market today.
I also bought some illiquid stocks.
If this market is indeed in a bull market mode already, everything will
go up. It's just a matter of time so I suggest you start positioning on
some of those illiquid stocks as well while they are still low.
Can you just feel the frustration of
the bears right now? The bears have been expecting the market to drop
but prices just keeps going higher. As long as there is one soul out
there who is still skeptical of this uptrend, this market will continue
to climb higher. It's so tempting to take profits right now because
prices are relatively high, however, in my opinion, the challenge right
now is to HOLD!
% of portfolio in the market - 80%
% in cash - 20%
Mar 25, 2009
I changed gears in the Lopez stocks
today and, instead of buying the low stock (FPH), I bought the strong
one (EDC). It paid off greatly! Bought at the lows and was able to sell
near the highs. Thanks Wilson! You da man!!!
Finally, my third line bets have
moved - IP and LIHC. I averaged up a bit more on those stocks today.
I took profits from my coal play -
SCC. Did I sell too early again?
I bought a boring food stock today. I
bought the most battered one in the last couple of weeks.
For the last few days, I noticed that
everytime I sell, I just end up buying back higher. This is one
indication that the market is now starting to trend up. Are you enjoying the Bull Market of
2009? Let me quote a phrase from the song of Ms. Karen Carpenter, "We've
only just begun..."
% of portfolio in the market - 40%
% in cash - 60%
Mar 24, 2009
With the Dow up by almost 500 points
last night, I just had to take advantage of this and take profits today!
I sold all my FPH today at 23.75. I
made money on this but I just can't believe I sold too low once again. I
knew one of these days FPH would become stronger than EDC or FGEN
already. Unfortunately, it occurred right after I sold it. I guess
sometimes I just have to believe. I sold all my MWC at cost. This one
was quite disappointing to me. I sold some of my Andrew Tan shares at
the open but I didn't sell all of it.
I bought a small position in a Lolo
today. I also bought a small position in a Chucky stock (I can't believe
I bought a Lolo stock and a Chucky stock - I need to pray 10 Hail Marys
tonight).
With the property and banking stocks
already having gone up quite considerably already, what could be next? I
think it's time to look at the 3rd line sector right now.
% of portfolio in the market - 35%
% in cash - 65%
Mar 23, 2009
I averaged up on my Lopez stock today
as well as on my Andrew Tan stock. I also bought back my coal play
today. Wow! I just realized that I'm already long by 80% of the
portfolio. The last time I was this heavy was last November, if I
remember correctly.
I think it is "TIME"! Welcome to the
Bull Market of 2009!!!
% of portfolio in the market - 80%
% in cash - 20%
Mar 20, 2009
One can just never say what's going
to happen to the market. Despite the Dow looking toppish in the
short-term, the PSEi gave me a buy signal today so I just had to buy. I
placed around 55% of the portfolio in the market today. I placed around
30% in the most battered down Lopez stock. I placed 20% in a utility,
which has a heavy foreign buying right now. I placed 5% in AGI. I
gambled 5% in a "basura mining stock". My call center play looks cool.
:-)
Regarding AGI, foreign funds have
been heavily selling this stock for the last several weeks. They have
been selling it because AGI stated that they will be the ones to buy the
rights of MEG if no one takes it. Since the rights of MEG will be
offered at P1.00 and the market price is currently at 0.48, the
foreigners are correct in selling them, or, are they? The puzzling thing
about this is that, if the rights is really bearish, why is Aurora, who
is being used by AGI in its buyback program, heavily buying into the
stock? Something is bullishly amiss in here, in my opinion.
By the way, have you noticed that
eversince JAP and Chucky exchanged shares with each other, GEO/NI is
being sold down by the brokers associated with Chucky while MUSX/LIHC is
being sold down by the brokers associated with JAP. I'm wondering, why
didn't they just give money to each other directly instead of
backstabbing each other in the board? It's hilarious!
% of portfolio in the market - 60%
% in cash - 40%
Mar 19, 2009
I sold my PX at cost. I can't believe
Gold went up by $50.00 last night, yet, PX even went down. I sold my
remaining FLI today. I panicked a bit on this one cause there may not be
any buyers anymore on this one by tomorrow. FLI is one of the most
affected by the re-imposition of the DST tomorrow. I bought a very small
position in one of the call center plays in the market. I was able to do
a very nice day-trade in one of the Lopez stocks.
PNB - The one that got away!
I hope all those reading this blog
were able to get out early from the Lopez stocks today. Last Tuesday,
there was a weird feeling about it already. Yesterday, there was a
warning. Today, a confirmation!
By the way, anyone noticed ABA? The
jockey seems to be playing with himself again (masturbating). Just like
what he is doing in ATN, MUSX, TUNA and LIHC. What the jockey doesn't
seem to realize is that, with the way he plays his stocks, nobody would
dare touch his stocks anymore.
I'm almost totally liquid right once
again. I'm scared of the Dow. I think it may start to correct anytime
now. I want to see how the PSE reacts when the Dow drops by 200 points
or more.
% of portfolio in the market - 5%
% in cash - 95%
Mar 18, 2009
What a very disappointing performance
from the market today! With the market coming off from the lows and the
Dow rocketing higher again last night, I have to admit, I was expecting
a very, very strong market today. I was expecting AC/ALI to lead the
market higher and it did. Unfortunately, I'm no longer certain it's a
"sell Lopez, buy properties/banks". It might actually be a "sell Lopez
and take a vacation" already. If the market couldn't go up despite the
Dow climbing up already, can you just imagine what will happen to the
market if the Dow starts to correct back down?
Yesterday, I was already worried
about the Lopez stocks cause it didn't behave as strongly as I thought.
Today, if I were still holding them, I would already be in a state of
panic.
To say that this is a tough market to
trade is an understatement. I took some profits from my property stock
today but I left a little bit behind. Although the property sector is
the sector which I am most bullish about, I'm just not so sure if it can
start to trend up, given the weakness of the entire market. I sold my
PNB at the same price. The foreign funds are merely padding the buy side
and are just waiting for a big buyer to sell to. I lost some money in
MEG today. I bought at the open cause I thought the property sector
would be very strong today. I ended up cutting losses during the day.
Finally, I bought a small position in a mining stock today.
I think this weakness in the market
has something to do with the re-imposition of the DST on Friday. This
will kill the day-traders in the market. I would expect liquidity to dry
up starting on Friday. You can thank those lazy lawmakers for not
passing the bill on time!
% of portfolio in the market - 20%
% in cash - 80%
Mar 17, 2009
I lost one fluctuation in the Lopez
stock that I bought yesterday - EDC. Although the loss was relatively
small, I kinda loaded on it cause it looked like a "sure thing" already
yesterday. That loss hurt. To my surprise, the stock dropped back down
to 3.00 today and buyers were hesitating the whole day to bid it up.
There is absolutely nothing in the chart to say that the stock is
bearish already right now, however, I just don't like it. That's it!
Today, I think I've confirmed my thinking to "sell Lopez" and "buy
properties/banks". I added more to my favorite property stock today. I
also bought a small position in a bank. Which bank? The lousiest
of them all!
By the way, did anyone notice the
buying and selling of DBP-Daiwa in PLTL last Friday and yesterday?
Wasn't that a very obvious case of insider trading?
% of portfolio in the market - 40%
% in cash - 60%
Mar 16, 2009
What a day?!! TEL down by 11.66%! MER
down by 14.59%! While I knew these stocks wouldn't go up today because
of the news that MVP has bought into the Lopez block in MER, I certainly
did not expect them to go down by more than 10%. You certainly did it
this time Mr. MVP!!! Such investment prowess from the man! Manolo must
be laughing his way all the way up to the bank!
As a result, the PSEi has broken
below its major support at 1800 today, simply because of these two
issues. The PSE should seriously change the composition or the way the
PSEi is being computed because it is definitely not representative of
what the whole market is doing. Why don't you just use my Tsupitero
index instead? :-)
Anyway, because of what happened in
the market today, I was forced to do a major realignment in my
portfolio. I sold all my non-moving stocks today with small losses. I
also sold 1/3 of my property stock today with a small gain. I loaded up
on one Lopez stock today. No, I didn't touch MER, nor, did I touch FPH.
I feel quite embarrassed. After all my talk about "sell Lopez stocks and
buy Property stocks", I still ended up buying a Lopez stock today (hahaha).
% of portfolio in the market - 60%
% in cash - 40%
Mar 13, 2009
I bought more property issues today.
My portfolio is now 30% property, 20% industrial, 10% holdings, which is
also related to property, and, a minuscule position in coal.
You might ask, why am I over-weighted
in property? The reason I am bullish on property is because of this
chart below.
This chart divides the Industrial
index to the Property index. Almost 50% of the Industrial index is
composed of the Lopez stocks - MER, FPH, EDC and FGEN. These stocks are
currently forming higher highs right now. On the other hand, the
property stocks are forming lower lows. What this chart means is that
the difference between the two indices are at its widest since the year
2004. Everytime the Industrial index is already five times more than the
Property index, a major shift in sentiment occurs between the two indices
follow. Normally, the Industrial index should only be three or four
times more than the Property index. On the other extreme, the Industrial
index becomes only 2.5 times more than the Property index. Either the Property index
will climb faster than the Industrial
index, or, the Industrial index will fall faster than the Property index.
The indicator doesn't say whether the Property index is now a buy, or,
the Industrial index is now a sell. However, I am betting that history
will repeat itself and that I will have more probability of making more
money in the Property sector right now than if I were invested in the
Industrial sector.
By the way, whereas the PSEi is
merely consolidating within a range, my proprietary Tsupitero index is
now slowly trending up. The PSEi is not really representative of what
the whole market is doing because of the over-weight of TEL. In reality,
the whole market is already starting to look quite bullish, in my
opinion. Below is how my Tsupitero index looks like right now.
Don't you just love Friday the 13th!
% of portfolio in the market - 60%
% in cash - 40%
Mar 12, 2009
I got whipsawed a bit in the Lopez
stocks today. I salute you if you traded any Lopez stock today and you
didn't get whipsawed.
I placed a small position in one of
the property issues today. For the last few weeks, the Financial and
Property issues have been diverging extremely compared to the Lopez
stocks. In my opinion, I believe it has finally come to the point
wherein you need to be bearish in Lopez stocks and bullish on the
Financial and Property issues. I believe a major shift in sentiment in
these issues is just around the corner.
I also bought a minuscule position in
SCC. The foreign funds were selling but I think there might be something
here that the foreign funds don't know about.
% of portfolio in the market - 30%
% in cash - 70%
Mar 11, 2009
I didn't buy anything today. I just
didn't see any opportunity in today's trading.
In my opinion, today was a crystal
clear opportunity to take profits in the Lopez stocks (ex. Mer). I think
they might start to consolidate or correct for now.
I just read in the papers yesterday
that it was the PLDT Retirement Fund that was buying into Meralco in the
last few weeks. If I had invested in this fund, I would be very, very,
very angry right now. The management of this fund certainly did not use
any sound investment strategies and was merely used as a pawn.
% of portfolio in the market - 20%
% in cash - 80%
Mar 10, 2009
I'm back to just having 20% of my
total portfolio exposed in the market right now as I sold all my EDC
today. I think I may have sold too early but I don't care. Making a 20%
profit on a bear market is good enough for me.
I could have day-traded some Lopez
stocks today but I didn't. Why? I don't know. When I am able to buy my
positions at a low price, I feel kind of lazy to day-trade at higher
prices anymore. Maybe I'm fearful of making a mistake, thereby,
decreasing my profits in the position trade. Or, maybe because I am
already looking to sell my positions so I am no longer thinking to buy.
However, if I didn't have a position at a low price, I'm pretty sure I
would have day-traded today. Moral of the story, forget about your
positions and trade the stock according to where it is heading right
"now". If I day-traded the stock, I would have squeezed a little more
profits today.
% of portfolio in the market - 20%
% in cash - 80%
Mar 9, 2009
MER dropped dead today, as expected.
It amazes me that there were even buyers in MER today above the 100.00
level. It amazes me further that there were still a lot of sellers
today. Haven't these people been reading the news?
Excluding MER, I think all the Lopez
stocks gave a "Buy Signal" today. Even the ever-kupad BPC I think is a
Buy already. However, if you look at the value turnover and observe
which was the really strong one even at the open, it seems to me that
the real play is in EDC. I bought quite a lot for myself today. I wonder
who that UBS buying order is from? Something's cooking here. Hmmm...
% of portfolio in the market - 50%
% in cash - 50%
Mar 6, 2009
I did a couple of nice day-trades in
MER today. Thank you Manny or Manuel or Winston or Danding or whoever
you are!
Monday will be the real test on MER
and all the Lopez stocks. Since Monday will be the ex-date of the record
date of the stockholders meeting of MER, people who would buy MER then
will no longer be entitled to a proxy. Naturally, everybody is expecting
MER to run out of buyers on Monday. And if MER goes down, people are
also expecting the other Lopez stocks to drop lower as well. Somehow, I
have a feeling, some of these stocks will surprise the market next week.
I didn't add to my portfolio today
because a drop in MER on Monday may affect the overall sentiments of the
market. Besides, the Dow looks set to test the 6000 level soon.
% of portfolio in the market - 20%
% in cash - 80%
Mar 5, 2009
The taipans are now losing their
minds in Meralco. If I were Lopez, you want to buy Meralco at P112.00,
you can have it!!! This no longer is a war about wanting to buy a
profitable company, it's a war of pride. I don't think you'll see the
Ayalas do the same thing, if they were in Lopez's shoes.
I hardly did anything today.
Sometimes, it's really better if you trade and you don't know anything
about the company. Could have bought MER today but the thought that
tomorrow will be the cut-off date on MER is making me hesitate to buy.
It's so natural to sell at the psychological P100.00. But, of course,
the stock won't go to P100.00 if it isn't going to go above it. The more
scared people are of buying, the more bullish!
I'm now long on just one particular
stock. I'm waiting for a down day to add some more to this issue.
% of portfolio in the market - 20%
% in cash - 80%
Mar 4, 2009
It was a day of whipsaws in the Lopez
stocks today. I don't think there was even one person in our office who
didn't get whipsawed today. As for me, while I was able to avoid any
whipsaws in the Lopez stocks today, I wasn't able to escape a whipsaw in
PLDT.
PLDT announced a P130.00/share cash
dividend yesterday. When I saw that PLDT was going to open by just up
P30.00 from yesterday's close, I thought to myself, this was a
no-brainer. I bought PLDT at open. In the back of mind though, I was
thinking to myself, why is it that I could easily buy PLDT at 2215.00?
This ought to be trading at 2315.00 already by now. The stock only
managed to climb up to 2235.00, then, began to trade back down towards
its opening price. When the prices broke below the opening price, I
sold. My rationale is, if something happens that is totally opposite of
what I was expecting, I should immediately act on it so I did. The stock
consolidated most of the day between 2205.00 and 2225.00. By the end of
the day, it still went up and still manage to close at its highs. What's
the moral lesson? Maybe, when something looks too good to be true, it
probably isn't. But it eventually went up, so that couldn't be the
lesson. Use wider stops? Maybe. Market can be really weird sometimes.
I am bullish on just one particular
stock right now and it comprises the majority of my portfolio. No, it
isn't MER but somehow, I think it may be related.
% of portfolio in the market - 25%
% in cash - 75%
Mar 3, 2009
I'm a bit frustrated with myself
because I wasn't able to buy a lot of Lopez stocks today. I knew most of
them were a "buy" but I just conservatively waited on the bid side. The
result, most of my postings didn't get hit. I guess I just couldn't
believe 100% that the Lopez stocks were going to climb up today, despite
my technicals telling me to buy. I ended up buying some boring stocks
cause I just couldn't pass this day without buying anything. It's
unbelievable! Dow was down 300 points and the PSEi was up 3 points. I
loaded up a bit on myself as well as on my clients since I believe there
is no longer any risk on buying this market anymore, at least, in the
short-term.
% of portfolio in the market - 40%
% in cash - 60%
Mar 2, 2009
Hi Tsupiteros!
Thanks for visiting my newly created
blog page. In this page, I will try to share with you my experiences in
my trading, some of my personal views about the markets and, if I get
hold of information, some rumors and stories about specific stocks.
Hopefully, this will blog will help
people gain better insights about the market and will help people trade
better by understanding how professional traders like me think in our
trading.
It is my objective, not only for
other people to learn, but for me to learn and better myself as
well. I believe successful trading is all about understanding yourself
better. If you get to know your strengths and weakness better, you will
be able to make a lot more money in the markets.
Remember, no one graduates from the
markets. This is a lifelong learning curve.
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