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Miko's Blog for June 2012

 

July 1, 2012 (3:30 p.m.)

While our market has been trending up since a week ago already, world market have begun to climb only last Friday. All commodity groups may have bottomed-out while the Dollar may have formed a peak. Welcome to the next leg of the bull market!

I updated my proprietary Tsupitero Index by removing BHI, CEB, IP, GERI, ZHI, VLL, SMDC and SMC and adding SECB, BLOOM, PHES, GMAP, PGOLD, DIZ, PXP and OV. Prior to the revision, the index was up year-to-date by just a mere 13%. Now, the index's ytd performance is up 42%. That's how selective this market has been for the last six months. There are obviously opportunities but you got to pick the right horse. To view the updated index, click here.

 

June 28, 2012 (10:30 p.m.)

As expected, the market peaked today as TEL has become overbought but...

Can you imagine yourself holding 1.6 million shares of DIZ? That's what that foreign fundie in First Metro had and I'm not even sure if he still has more. Once again, he sold more DIZ and shifted everything to PXP or that's how it looked like in the board. Is he making the right call? Only time will tell. It's just unbelievable how blatant he is doing his shifting in the market, given his size. If I had a lot of money to spare, I'll buy while he sells and, if I had tons of shares of PXP, I'll sell while he buys. Why would I contra what he is doing? It's nothing personal, it's simply because it's very seldom that you will get that much volume in the market in those kinds of stocks.

MRC was one of the top gainers in the market today as Guild Securities crossed 225 million shares at 0.1967. The cross triggered a buying spree as some may have thought that the big seller selling the stock is done with his selling. The thing is, the big seller of the stock could also have just done a cross to trigger some buying from the public in order for him to sell more. We'll know in the next couple of days, which is which.

What happened to BEL and LR is a prime example of how difficult this market has been. A couple of years ago, that sort of buying could have generated enough momentum to carry it higher for the next 2 or, at least, 1 more day. This time though, despite going up for just the first time in quite a while, those stocks have begun to correct back down immediately today. It's a very frustrating market especially for momentum traders.

 

June 27, 2012 (8:00 p.m.)

Market beginning to be too excited as some of the unbelievers has started to become believers. Now, I'm a bit concerned. I expect TEL to peak tomorrow (if not today) in the short-term, so, does that mean that the whole market will peak (or have peaked) as well?

I stand corrected on First Metro's shift from DIZ to PXP yesterday. I have to say, Macquarie and company are the smoothest operators in the business right now. I have to hand it to them for bringing PXP to 48.00. I have a giant resistance area at 50.00. I still think First Metro was on drugs though.

All of a sudden, the BEL/LR tandem are once again the darling of the market as rumors are circulating of BEL doing a jv with the son of Stanley Ho. I have no idea why LR was very strong as well. Notice that AGI dropped down today despite the gaming sector being very strong. As the opening of the new casinos in the Entertainment City comes closer and closer, AGI's share price might drop as profits in RW might soon be threatened.

 

June 26, 2012 (9:30 p.m.)

Market certainly looks resilient and is not minding at all what is happening to the world markets. 5300 coming soon?

Fundies still ganging up on TEL to support the market but I have a heavy 2750 coming up.

After dumping NI for DIZ, First Metro suddenly dumped DIZ for PXP. I would be scared if I had PXP right now. That foreign fund from First Metro must be on drugs.

MJC/MJIC is obviously a breakout. Something going on here.

 

June 25, 2012 (9:00 p.m.)

Although P-Noy did not sign the EO on mining last week, some people are still very much speculating on the industry. A notable investor is Vicsal Securities, who is seen positioning in the Lolo stocks. He was quite evident in MA today. First Metro Securities, on the other hand, had other plans in mind as he dumped JAP's NI in favor of JAP's DIZ. I don't know if that's the same fund but it certainly seems like it.

Are the fundies using TEL to prop up the market? 2650 to 2750 are big resistances for me.

Anyone noticed CLOUD? Try comparing it will all the Jaime Gonzalez stocks - IP and EG.

 

June 21, 2012 (8:00 p.m.)

Did JAP stocks finally bottom-out? DIZ seems to be the main play for now but it does look like that all of his stocks has bottomed-out. I guess the release of the mining EO was all that JAP was waiting for. If I'm not mistaken, the EO will be signed by P-Noy tomorrow.

MEG is fantastic! Congratulations to owner of this one!

 

June 20, 2012 (10:00 p.m.)

Finally! The PSE has broken above 5100. 5500 coming?

I bet some people who had ACE got the shock of their lives when they saw it trading at 5.00 today. What they didn't know is that the stock went ex-div today on its 250% stock dividend declaration. The jockeys of the stock hit it to the roof today knowing that the additional shares won't be saleable until July 19, 2012. I'm guessing that the best time to sell your position in this stock would be sometime between now and July 19, 2012. I wouldn't expect this to be trading this high by that date as the additional shares would become saleable.

OV moving in lock-step with PXP. Although both are looking strong, I still like PXP better.

Some activity with Lolo stocks today as rumors are going around that the EO on the mining sector will finally be coming out soon.

Is CAL over? I see Tower and HDI selling but why isn't Nieves buying?

 

June 19, 2012 (10:30 p.m.)

Is CAL pump and dump? Did they push the price simply to get out? I bet a lot of longs got caught today in this one. Anybody's guess what's going to happen next but the lower highs of the stock is definitely a turn-off.

I wonder what's going on in TDY. Today, TDY registered is highest volume ever in one day. I've been hearing a lot of rumors. With El Kapitan disposing his assets one by one, could this be next? If ever, RSA or SMC should be the most eligible bachelor after his buyout of PAL.

 

June 18, 2012 (8:30 p.m.)

For chartist out there, you can probably just remove that long black bar last Friday in your charts. Market up just 30 points, not 119 points. :-)

Congratulations to all those courageous souls who bought last Friday!

CAL pushers are at it again. They must have quite a warchest to still be willing to push right now and absorb all those who got stuck at higher levels.

Oil seems to be the play of the day led by OV and PXP. I like PXP better than OV in the short-term.

Most issues which got sold down by DBP-Daiwa last Friday made a quick pop up to the upside today, however, the real stand-outs were SMPH, SCC and VLL.

 

June 17, 2012 (8:30 p.m.)

The PSEi was the only market in the world which dropped by 2% last Friday. The culprit - DBP-Daiwa sold P2.5 billion worth of stocks last Friday. Obviously, this was a foreign fund which simply wanted out of the Philippines. Maybe he will transfer funds to US, which looks relatively stronger. I also heard rumors that this might be FG or RVO. We'll never know. The thing is, the market was suppose to breakout already above 5100 if not for this selling of DBP-Daiwa. Now, the market is "damaged" and we will probably be consolidating still at best. Buyers of DBP-Daiwa's selling last Friday are probably instant winners tomorrow morning. I noticed some selling by DBP-Daiwa last Thursday in those stocks that this giant fund sold. Could it be that some traders learned about the sell order and sold their positions ahead of the fund?

Regarding CAL, I heard rumors that Citiseconoline had some technical problems last Thursday as sell orders in CAL came in simultaneously. The glitch probably exaggerated the drop. I wonder why there was no more padding in CAL last Friday.

 

June 14, 2012 (9:15 p.m.)

The talk of the town once again is that very controversial CAL. One thing that is very puzzling to me is, why did the "padders" allow themselves to get done? Everybody knows that when those "padders" get taken out, the stock would fall like a rock. They even did it twice, first at 14.60s and the next at 11.90 to 12.00. Why pad the buyers' price at all if you would let the stock fall in the end? These guys are either too smart or simply have a lot of money and want everybody to be happy. :-)

 

June 13, 2012 (8:00 p.m.)

Did the market breakout today? I would have been convinced already until I saw what happened to BDO.

A lot of people is asking me, is still safe to buy CAL at these levels? My answer is, your guess is as good as mine.

AGI was a big loser among the big caps today. Did anyone notice that BLOOM and LR also went down? That's because a bill was filed in the Senate to restructure PAGCOR and one of the provisions of the bill was to impose a P1,000 entrance fee for all local gamblers. Technically, I don't like those three issues. BEL though looks iffy.

VMC was quite a disappointment today. I was thinking that 1.57 was already a low. Apparently, it was not. I guess a lot of those who got stuck in this issue for the last 10 years are just happy to see some buyers nowadays.

 

June 12, 2012 (7:30 p.m.)

Been busy the last few days, which is why I haven't been updating the website. Tsupitero.com will be having a new fresh look soon. Stay tuned!

So, is the market finally bottoming-out? Or, is this another bull-trap? 5100 is the line in the sand.

URC was quite extraordinary yesterday. Something definitely going on in there.

CAL continued to climb higher today for a third day in row. While prices are no longer climbing as fast as before, it is, at least, climbing at a more stable pace this time around. Still, is this a dead-cat bounce, or, did the trend change already? Everybody seems to be talking about the investigation in the stock but the pushers doesn't seem to be bothered by it.

Rumors going around that the mining EO will finally come out soon. Maybe that's the reason why LC strengthened but why aren't the other mining issues moving?

 

June 7, 2012 (11:00 p.m.)

Dow up by another 100 points as of this writing after climbing by 286 points last night. Are we out of the woods already? I'm not quite sure. We need further evidences to confirm this.

CAL climbing back up after bottoming-out at 9.80 but how come the "pushers" are no longer hitting it 2 to 3 pesos higher? It's interesting how they do the pushing though. Unlike JAP, wherein the buyers appear and disapper like magic, CAL pushers are constantly putting massive amounts of buying to attract buyers. Their style is both a boon and a bane because, although people would get attracted with the huge buying, they also know that the pushers may just pull the plug and remove all the buying at any instance. You simply cannot afford to go to the comfort room if you are playing CAL.

VMC suddenly became very active in the last two days after climbing more than 100% from its lows at 1.05. Are the buyers and sellers real or just pasa-bola from one broker to another to attract attention?

 

June 5, 2012 (9:00 p.m.)

Obviously, "game over" for CAL with the price hitting the floor after going to the roof in the last few days. I guess the big question that everybody is thinking now is, were the "pushers" able to get out? If you look at Citiseconline data, average buying of the "pushers" were at the 15.00 to 17.00 levels, thus, if they sell now, they would lose money. Of course, they do have shares from the IPO price of 7.50, so, actually, they would still make a profit if they sell right now. The problem now is, after what it did today, who would still be brave enough to buy this stock? I really doubt if the "pushers" were able to sell all that they bought in the last few days. As I stated before, pushing is easy, the hard part is how to get out.

 

June 5, 2012 (12:00 a.m.)

CAL, the only one left still standing. Since I'm from Nieves, a lot of people are asking me, "what is the target price?" Well, to be honest about it, us, traders in Nieves, have absolutely no idea where the price is going. I really wish we had inside info about this but, unfortunately, we don't. Hinetes in the market are surely observing this one carefully and getting a tip or two on how to push a stock higher. One thing I cannot understand is, why do an IPO in the first place when you are just going to use the proceeds to prop up the price? Of course, I'm not complaining. Are these funds different from the one received from the IPO? Technically, although prices are indeed in an uptrend, I'm not so sure if it is still a good idea to buy at current levels. For those who have heart ailments, please refrain from trading this stock. :-)

 

June 3, 2012 (11:00 p.m.)

I bet a lot of long positions are very nervous right now with the Dow down by a massive 274 points last Friday night. I expect the PSEi to do the same tomorrow. Elliotticians will probably say that we just ended the "B".

Gold up by more than $50.00 last Friday. Could Lolo finally be in play now? I'm not so sure about PX with that RVO insider trading issue overhang. Come to think of it, what does that insider trading case have to do with the stock price of PX? Regardless if RVO gets convicted or not, PX will still make billions.

I guess the local funds made a right call in selling into the buying order of Credit Suisse in DMC. Sometimes, I really wonder what these index funds are thinking.

CAL is just phenomenal. 3x your money in seven days time. Wow! Can it actually climb higher from here? I guess it all depends on what the jockey is thinking but I wouldn't chase it anymore at these levels. Pushing the price is easy. The hard part is how to get out. Congratulations to all those who made money in this one.

 

 © 2006. Miko S. Sayo. All Rights Reserved.