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Miko's Blog for
June 2011
June 29, 2011 (9:30 p.m.)
I just read about the ruling of the
Supreme Court regarding the exclusion of preferred shares in counting
the capital stock of a company. I guess this was the reason why TEL
dropped a lot in NY last night. This has huge ramifications for TEL and
several other stocks that have big foreign holdings because if the
ruling becomes final, the foreign funds will be forced to sell just to
comply with the ruling. This can be a cause for the market to collapse.
Great job your Magistrates!
June 29, 2011 (8:30 p.m.)
JAP is really making everybody guess
which of his stocks he will push today. Today it was SLI with ORE and
DIZ as the sidekicks. I wonder what it will be by tomorrow. Maybe I'll
just buy all his stocks and sell when he starts pushing but, nahhh. I
want to sleep soundly at night.
While JAP is busy reviving his
stocks, Chucky seems to be busy killing them.
After a whopping 24% run in just five
trading days' time, could AT have finally peaked at 20.85 today?
In the last couple of days, I've been
dipping my fingers with other sectors in the market like power and
trying to get a feel if the funds would finally start shifting to those
sectors already. Strangely, I find myself continuing to go back to
mining everytime. The rest of the market is merely trading in a boring,
up and down trend.
TEL was a party popper for the
market. Its behavior and DGTL's is indicating that the finalization of
their deal may be delayed. I cannot fathom the idea that congress will
not allow this deal to push thru. Anyone want to lend me shares of JGS?
Here we go again with the stupid idea
of extended afternoon trading. Isn't it ironic that the PSE wants to
implement extended afternoon trading, yet, they allow companies to get
suspended or halt their trading upon the disclosure of important news. I
am against both. Extended afternoon trading is a good idea but the
current value turnover of the market is still small to accommodate it.
If Extended afternoon trading is implemented, we will find ourselves
doing nothing and just wasting 50% of our time during trading hours. On
the other hand, suspensions and halting of trading increases the risk of
the investing public as prices will be vulnerable to a gap up or gap
down once trading resumes. I am a firm believer in Laissez-faire when it
comes to the markets.
Last day of the semester tomorrow.
For those who want to sell the big caps or any stock wherein there is a
big foreign following, tomorrow at the close might be a good idea to do
it.
June 28, 2011 (9:30 p.m.)
While a lot of people predicted right
that AT would gap down lower today at the open, did anyone expect AT to
go to 20.75 after gapping down lower? Maybe not. I bet a lot of people
sold down below this morning and are already regretting it right now.
For the nth time, is Lolo dead? ....
figuratively speaking, of course :-)
All of a sudden, JAP has become very,
very busy. Plenty of smokescreens here and there. The challenge though
is to find what the main play is.
Alcantara has thrown the key in ACR.
No one is allowed to get out unless you jump out of the window. Do not
buy this unless you want to spend the rest of your life in jail.
June 27, 2011 (9:30 p.m.)
After what happened to APO last
Friday, some were hopeful that AT will gap up higher by tomorrow.
However, after what happened today, most are now expecting AT to gap
down lower by tomorrow. Had the "hinete" controlled the price and let
APO close at 2.20 last Friday and close at 2.49 today, the psychology
would have been much, much different.
After hibernating for so many months,
could JAP finally have arose from the dead?
There are some stocks, wherein the
only way to make money from them is to buy them when no one is minding
them at all and then you wait. When you buy them when prices become very
strong, it's too late. PA is one of them.
I'm bullish on the power sector right
now, except ACR.
ACR - Alcantara's Correctional Room
(If you buy it, you'll get locked in jail)
June 26, 2011 (10:30 p.m.)
I will be conducting a 3-day seminar
about Technical Analysis on the Philippine Stock Market on July 23, 30
and Aug 6, 2011. It will be from 9:00 a.m. to 12:00 noon at the Valle
Verde Country Club in Pasig City (beside the formerly ULTRA). Topics of
the seminar will include Classical patterns, Japanese Candlesticks,
Technical indicators, Elliott Wave Principle and Trading Systems basics.
Seminar fee is just P5,000.00 per head and will include a one month
subscription to the Tsupitero Newsletter. Those who would like to attend
may just email me at
miko@tsupitero.com.
Jun 24, 2011 (11:30 p.m.)
I
think people got quite surprised when the disclosure came out on AT
today and it had nothing to do with MVP. The news was actually about AT
buying CASOP's stake in Carmen. The market is obviously perceiving the
news as bullish, especially with the way APO moved today, however, is
the news really bullish? I guess it would be bullish to AT if the
additional income coming from Carmen would more than offset the dilutive
effect of the additional shares that will be issued.
The
mining index just registered a new all time high today with MA, LC, PX
and AT all surging. Congratulations to all miners! .... However, with
everybody now in mining, I think it might just be time to look at other
lagging sectors already. I'm such a "kj". :-)
Jun 23, 2011 (10:00 p.m.)
I
guess everybody already knows by now, MVP wants AT or something in it.
The only question now is, how much? With the way AT is moving, a
disclosure looks forthcoming. Buy the rumor, sell on the news, perhaps?
Oops, mali ... AGP
- Angping Gustong Patayin
Jun 22, 2011 (7:30 p.m.)
ATlast!!!
AGP
- Angping Gustong Pataasin.....congrats to my comrades in HDI
ACR
- NakakaACR pa din.....condolence to my comrades in HDI
Jun 21, 2011 (8:30 p.m.)
I
got quite surprised by AT this morning. I knew it was going to rally but
18.18?! I've been reading and hearing a lot of bullish things about this
stock but up until today, the ticker just hasn't shown anything to give
people a reason to buy this stock. Could this finally be the beginning
of an uptrend?
I
thought DBP-Daiwa would be giving away money again today. His selling
last Friday might have just marked the very low of this market.
Jun 20, 2011 (6:00 p.m.)
I've
been hearing a lot of theories on what DBP-Daiwa is doing in the market
but the best one I've heard is that he's on drugs.
Jun 16, 2011 (10:00 p.m.)
Somebody from DBP-Daiwa seems to be attempting to manipulate the index
once again as he force closed SMPH, TEL and AEV today. While what he is
doing isn't illegal, it just leaves a bad taste in the mouth. People
should take advantage of his childish ways.
At
one point in time, we were the only Asian bourse that were up this
morning. Could we really be strong or simply foolish?
My
new baby, ACR, is getting more interesting everyday. Could 1.48 be the
new floor already?
Has
anyone noticed BDO in LC? Lolo is milking Tatang dry. Or maybe there is
a "syndicate" and he is part of it.
For
those people still playing PWR up to now, you may either call yourselves
the PWR rangers or the PWR puff girls.
Jun 15, 2011 (8:00 p.m.)
Dead-cat bounce or not? That is the question.
After scanning all the stocks in the market, I can hardly see anything
that could rally but isn't a dead-cat bounce. Finally, I found something
that could potentially defy gravity - ACR. I was very doubtful when I
saw ACR climb all the way up towards the 1.57 a couple of days ago. I
was thinking that this might be just one of those two to three day
rallies. However, after what happened today, there may be a possibility
that this may move differently from the rest of the market. In the last
few months, it was only HDI Securities that was buying in the market. In
this run-up though, some other funds have begun to join the party. The
fact that the stock held above the 1.44 level is a good sign for the
bulls, however, in order to really trend up, prices need a convincing
breakout above that 1.57 level. So far, so good for the bulls but still
needs to get out of the woods. I bought a small position today.
Let's see if there is an Advanced Christmas Regalo this year.
Sorry, no PWR today, brownout.
Although MRC dropped by almost 15% today, somebody became very, very
happy as 3.1 billion shares, which were bought at P0.20 per share from a
debt to equity conversion, can now be sold in the open market. At its
closing price today, that investment may now cash-in with a 185% return.
I can't understand why there were still buyers in this stock this
morning.
Wala
akong masabi, Lolo is immortal.
Could it be that JAP has resurrected in DIZ?
Jun 14, 2011 (9:30 p.m.)
Market
is now down for eight consecutive days in a row. Surely, the bulls ought
to be right one of these days, right?! Those who are using martingale
strategies are probably wetting on their pants already right now. Yes,
we have indeed broken down below a critical support level but that
doesn't mean we can't rally.
Does
PWR still have the power to test or break 1.00? Congrats to COL for
making 10 flucs in 24 hours time. With the stock now nearing 1.00, I'm
already thinking of retiring in my profession as a PWR ranger.
For
those who are still up in their portfolio year to date up to now, you
have certainly done a good job in your trading this year. Of course,
those who are still up in their portfolios up to now have either only
completely liquidated a couple of weeks ago, or, went buy and hold with
Lolo.
Jun 13, 2011 (9:00 p.m.)
You
may now call me a PWR ranger. :-)
Jun 12, 2011 (8:30 p.m.)
Jun 9, 2011 (9:00 p.m.)
My
"ex-girlfriend", ACR, was the top gainer in the market today on news of
a subscription by ACR itself to 5.5 billion preferred shares at P0.01
and the announcement of a P7.5 billion follow-on offering. I sincerely
hope they can pull this off because, with the current market condition,
I don't know if any company can do a secondary offering right now at
decent prices.
AT
Bulok!
Jun 8, 2011 (9:00 p.m.)
I
still can't understand why PWR is trading at 0.83 right now, given that
its tender offer price is just at 0.04. I'm still happy to trade it
anyway. :-)
I'd
like to congratulate my friend for single-handedly pushing up ELI.
Napabilib mo ako pare! :-)
Anyone noticed the low value turnover recently? Big, big, gigantic move
coming up soon. I just don't know where we will go next . Anyone has a
coin? :-)
Jun 7, 2011 (11:30 p.m.)
Thank God for PWR for not making my day boring today. PWR has been
surging higher recently on news that Century Properties will buy-out the
Company. It is reported that Century Properties will do a tender offer
at P0.04 by July 11 (No, that is not a typo). So, why did the stock
almost climbed up to the ceiling price today and is now trading at
P0.73? My guess is, a deal needs to get done at par. Thus, the bulls are
looking at 1.00 and the bears are looking at 0.04. Be careful. This
definitely is not for the faint-hearted.
Jun 6, 2011 (9:30 p.m.)
Forever sideways....(hayyy)
Jun 2, 2011 (9:00 p.m.)
I am
completely flabbergasted by what just happened to the market today. With
world markets now collapsing, we are now either the strongest market in
the world or the weirdest. Maybe we were just saved by Warren Buffett
but MER is just 2.95% of the index. The biggest influence of the PSEi
today was actually AEV, which contributed 15 points to the index. MER
merely contributed 9 points. AEV though is behaving extremely unnatural.
Funds are now probably using this stock to manipulate the index. The
biggest question now is, can we actually breakout and trend up?
Congratulations to all Lolo fans! I have to hand it to him and MVP. LC
is now officially the PSE's stock of the year. It is currently up 106%
ytd. But actually, despite being off the highs, LR is up 169% ytd. You
want to know the "stuck" of the year? EG is down 52% ytd and SLI is down
47% ytd. Most funds right now are up by around 2-5% on average. Those
funds who have been using "contra" trading strategies must probably be
making a lot more than those using trend-following unless, of course,
you used a buy and hold strategy with Lolo.
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