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Miko's Blog for
June 2009
June 30, 2009
I lost in a couple of day-trades in PAX today. I
engaged in revenge trading in that one, which is why I lost more than
what I should have. Oh well, at least I was able to make some coffee
money in the TUNA that I bought yesterday.
Market really looks vulnerable right now.
% of portfolio in the market - 0%
% in cash - 100%
Year to date return - 43%
June 29, 2009
I was able to day-trade ATNB today for some coffee
money. Can somebody please explain to me why Chucky is giving away
money?
I bought a stock which has been consolidating for the
longest time now but appears to be strengthening recently.
% of portfolio in the market - 20%
% in cash - 80%
Year to date return - 44%
June 26, 2009
I sold all my SMCB today for some coffee money. I
sold all my ZHI today (yum, yum!).
Two more days 'til window-dressing but, with the
market already having gone up quite a lot in the last three days, it
might not be as spectacular as one might think.
% of portfolio in the market - 0%
% in cash - 100%
Year to date return - 44%
June 25, 2009
I took profits on all my PAX today for a nice 20%
return on that position (yum, yum!). I made coffee money in FLI. I'm
still holding on to my boring SMCB.
I bought an insignificant position in ZHI. The huge
volume today is telling me something's going on with that one.
Three more days 'til window-dressing begins! :-)
% of portfolio in the market - 25%
% in cash - 75%
Year to date return - 43%
June 24, 2009
The Dead has finally awaken. I bought tons of the
fastest stock in the market this morning. I also bought tons of an issue
that has not been affected at all by this downtrend in the market in the
last few days. I also bought a property issue. I made sure that
everything that I bought today would be immune from any downswings in
the Dow. MER - the one that got away!
I think the market has finally found a bottom in the
short-term. Can this rally head back up towards its high at 2626? Let's
see but with window-dressing just around the corner, potentially, I
think this could last until Tuesday. All we need now is some cooperation
from Mr. Dow.
% of portfolio in the market - 45%
% in cash - 55%
Year to date return - 39%
June 23, 2009
"I see dead people..." - dialogue taken from the
movie, the Sixth Sense.
% of portfolio in the market - 0%
% in cash - 100%
Year to date return - 39%
June 22, 2009
...zzzzz...zzzzz...
% of portfolio in the market - 0%
% in cash - 100%
Year to date return - 39%
June 19, 2009
Yawn!!!
% of portfolio in the market - 0%
% in cash - 100%
Year to date return - 39%
June 18, 2009
I tried to day-trade MER today but I
lost some coffee money instead. What am I doing? I guess I'm just trading
for the sake of trading something (hahaha).
With prices now relatively low
compared with just three days ago, it is very, very tempting to buy.
However, the markets are always counter-intuitive, thus, I think the
challenge is not "to buy", it is "not to buy". Gets? :-)
Watch PLDT! If it breaks below 2300,
OMG!
% of portfolio in the market - 0%
% in cash - 100%
Year to date return - 39%
June 17, 2009
I hardly did anything today but
day-trade MEG once again. Made coffee money in that trade. I'm contented
with just day-trading everyday for now. "Iwas pusoy muna". At this
point, it is no longer a time to think of making money, rather, the name
of the game is capital preservation. Sure there might be a bounce
somewhere but I don't think it's worth the gamble anymore as any rallies
right now should be treated as an opportunity to get out.
% of portfolio in the market - 0%
% in cash - 100%
Year to date return - 39%
June 16, 2009
Sorry Tsupiteros, I was proven
correct by the market. I think today confirmed that we have seen the
peak of this rally. I feel like taking a long vacation right now. :-)
I was able to day-trade MEG and MER
today. I was able to make 0.20% on the portfolio. Cheap thrill! (haha).
Congratulations to everyone who was
able to make money in this rally! If you got hit today, that's normal.
People will always normally get hit at the end of the trend. As long as
you made money during the uptrend, your losses today should just take a
little bit of a bite from your profits. For those who have yet to sell,
I wish you luck. Just make sure that you don't lose the profits that
you've earned in the last three months. In my opinion, any rallies from
this point on should just be an opportunity to get out.
See you in Boracay!
% of portfolio in the market - 0%
% in cash - 100%
Year to date return - 39%
June 15, 2009
I took profits from my MWC today. I
sold my TA with a one fluc gain. I lost two flucs in EDC. I bought FGEN
but sold it at the same price. I bought TUNA but sold it one fluc lower.
I have been getting whipsawed left and right for the last one week now.
In my opinion, these whipsaws may already be an indication that most
stocks in the market are no longer going up. The negative breadth since
last Thursday simply confirms this. Does this indicate that the market
is already at the peak? Here's your ultimate indicator - ME! Throughout
this mini-bull market that we've had since March, everytime I become
completely liquid, the market forms a trough the following day and
begins rallying to new highs. How will I become an indicator? If I am
completely liquid, like how I am right now, and I am proven correct by
the market, that for me would be the perfect indication that the market
will now begin to drop from here.
% of portfolio in the market - 0%
% in cash - 100%
Year to date return - 39%
June 11, 2009
I don't know if its just me or is the
market really getting choppy. I sold my FGEN at cost just to see it fly
to 23.50 by the close. I tried my luck in EDC instead. Maybe I'll be
luckier there. EDC closed the day with the biggest volume in two months.
I believe, this time around, EDC will no longer disappoint the bulls.
I sold my MUSX at cost. I sold my LC
with a one fluc loss. I'm still holding on to my MWC and my minuscule
position in TA.
While the whole market was up big
time today, I bet most Tsupiteros did not feel it anymore as there were
more stocks that went down today. The market is going up mainly because
of TEL and the Lopez stocks. The big question that you need to answer
now is, will the market rotate back to the laggards? If
you think it will rotate, then, this may be an opportunity to buy all
the other stocks that are relatively low right now. But if you think the
market will no longer rotate back to the laggards, then, I would suggest
to just concentrate playing in either TEL and Lopez right now and take a
very, very long vacation in the markets once the play in these stocks
are over.
% of portfolio in the market - 45%
% in cash - 55%
Year to date return - 39%
June 10, 2009
Wow! This market just won't die. I
guess yesterday was just a blip in the trend. Anyway, I'm certainly not
going to argue with the tape so I went shopping again today.
I followed my newsletter today and
bought some of the stocks that I recommended in it yesterday. I bought
tons of MWC today. I bought a Lopez stock and a mining stock. I bought a
minuscule position in TA. I got
whipsawed in VLL though.
I sold my minuscule position in TBGI.
It's so difficult to trade a stock when you know that the big seller is
trading in the same brokerage firm as yours.
I'm comfortably holding on to my
Chucky stock.
Something very bullish happened today
- PLDT broke out of its consolidation and is now trending. Could we actually be looking at 2700
already for the index?!! Cross your fingers!
% of portfolio in the market - 60%
% in cash - 40%
Year to date return - 40%
June 9, 2009
Talk about a disaster of a day! After
what the Dow did last night, I had a bias to the upside today and I
thought of buying a lot today cause I hardly have any positions. I
certainly did not expect the market to behave like how it did today.
I sold my MEG and AT with a one fluc
loss each. I got killed in both PNB and FGEN. The only thing I did right
today was to sell my PEP near the highs. I bought a minuscule position
in a formerly Chucky stock. So, the only thing I'm holding right now is
a Chucky stock and an ex-Chucky stock.
It's funny that when the market was
going down last year and you were a contrarian, everyone supported you.
But when the market is going up and you become a contrarian, everyone
criticizes you. This is the problem with a "long" only market. Everyone
has a one track mind - to be bullish. It doesn't matter if the market is
trending up or down, people simply expect the market to go up.
Well, I will explain why I am a bit
wary of the market right now, despite that it is still trending up in
the short-term. Below are two charts, a monthly and a weekly chart of
the PSEi. The monthly chart has a bollinger band overlayed with it,
while the weekly has an RSI attached to it. Notice in the monthly chart
that whenever the market touches the 20 month moving average (the
mid-line of the bollinger bands), the market has a tendency to reverse
its prevailing trend. Now, notice also that in the weekly chart, the RSI
of the PSEi is already at 71. While this doesn't say anything about the
short-term trend of the market, it does show that we are already
overbought in both the weekly and monthly time-frames. Be careful
Tsupiteros. In my opinion, this isn't a bull market yet and it's no
longer time to become greedy.
% of portfolio in the market - 15%
% in cash - 85%
Year to date return - 40%
June 8, 2009
It was a pretty good day for me
today. I was fortunate enough to have sold my minuscule position in SGI
at the high (yum, yum). I sold my MEG but I bought it back again. I
bought more shares of my Chucky stock. I bought AT. And, I bought a
minuscule position in PEP.
% of portfolio in the market - 35%
% in cash - 65%
Year to date return - 42%
June 5, 2009
I feel out of sorts today. I got
whipsawed in some issues again today. This is the second day in a row
that I've been getting whipsawed left and right despite the whole market
continuing to go up. I don't know if it's just me or maybe some issues
are no longer trending up as strongly. I had a long night last night so
I don't know if that had something to do with it.
I got whipsawed in MEG today but I
still ended up buying it in the end. I lost two flucs in APC but it's a
good thing I only bought a little.
My beloved FGEN...I've been hearing
some rumors on this stock since yesterday. Because of that rumor, I
didn't sell any shares at the beginning of the day. What happened? I
ended up selling at the close, which is it's low for the day. Damn! This
is precisely the reason why I don't want to hear any rumors or news of a
stock that I am trading. The worst thing that you want as a trader is to
have a bias. Oh well, I still made more than 3% on my total portfolio
because of that trade. Pretty good but it could have been better.
I bought a small position in a Chucky
stock today.
The only thing I did right the whole
day was to buy SGI. Finally, I was able to buy a stock that went to the
ceiling. For the last couple of weeks, I have been looking and looking
for some stock that could go the ceiling. I feel that my bull market
will not be complete if I wasn't able to experience a ceiling. Now, I am
complete! :-)
% of portfolio in the market - 20%
% in cash - 80%
Year to date return - 40%
June 4, 2009
I didn't have a very good trading day
as I lost 1% in my total portfolio. I lost almost 2 flucs in MPI. I
can't believe what happened to that one. I really thought I already had
a winner there. Bastos! I got emotional with FLI and I bid it up. I
ended up selling one fluc lower. I tried to day-trade ZHI but I just
sold at cost. I bought BRN because I thought it was a breakout from its
range but when I saw some insiders getting out, I decided to just
day-trade it for some coffee money.
I'm long on just 30% of the portfolio
and I'm holding just one particular Lopez stock. I feel
under-positioned. I'm going to regret this if the Dow climbs up a lot
tonight. The good thing is, I'm lucky enough to be holding the strongest
stock in the whole market. I feel something is cooking with that one as
it is exceptionally strong.
% of portfolio in the market - 30%
% in cash - 70%
Year to date return - 38%
June 3, 2009
I sold all my PAX today. I'm quite
disappointed with this one. I really thought it would at least attempt
at the 3.30 level.
I'm holding just one stock right now,
a Lopez stock. I added more of it today.
% of portfolio in the market - 30%
% in cash - 70%
Year to date return - 39%
June 2, 2009
I took profits from all my positions
and I was lucky enough to have sold most of it at their highs. I sold
MEG, ICT, GEO, NI and LIHC. I made an additional 5% in the portfolio
today. :-)
I placed new positions in the
portfolio, a call center and a Lopez stock. If I'm not mistaken,
it is finally EDC's and FGEN's time! There are no other big caps that
are still trading low right now. Notice the huge volumes on these two
issues today. I think there was some serious accumulation going on. I'm expecting a gigantic move for these
two laggards soon!
% of portfolio in the market - 40%
% in cash - 60%
Year to date return - 37%
June 1, 2009
I took profits from all my MPI today
(yum, yum!). I got whipsawed one fluc in VLL. I got whipsawed by selling
at the same price in CYBR. I added more JAP stocks today. I sold my MUSX
at cost. I was able to day-trade FLI. I bought ICT. I also bought MEG. I
was going to hold everything but I decided to let go of something to
control my position-sizing. I ended up selling all my FLI, which I
bought last Friday. Whew! By far, today was my busiest trading day of
the year.
If the Dow goes up tonight, the PSE
will go wild tomorrow!
% of portfolio in the market - 60%
% in cash - 40%
Year to date return - 32%
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