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Miko's Blog for July 2011

July 29, 2011 (3:30 a.m.)

We are the weirdest market in the whole world. Whereas the whole world is falling, we are the only market in the world that is continuing to hold on to its ground and even climbed up today. Everyone is starting to get scared of the Aug 2 deadline on the US Debt Ceiling, however, with how much prices have already fallen in the last five days in the US, even if no compromise is agreed, it would be discounted already by the markets. Time to buy on Aug 3?

Whereas the most PWRful one has fallen, it has now become a race between the most "fundamental" stock and "the God of all Stocks".

July 28, 2011 (12:30 a.m.)

The Debt Ceiling dilemma for Tsupiteros - There's probably a 90% chance that they'll raise the debt ceiling by Aug 2 and a 10% chance that they won't. If they raise the debt ceiling, markets will probably get a "relief rally" and the Dow would most likely climb up by three digits. Take note, the markets seem to be anticipating some sort of a compromise by Aug 2, thus, are not dropping in a panic-like manner. But if, for some stupid reason such as politics, they don't raise the debt ceiling, markets will most likely crash.

For Tsupiteros, this would probably mean that there's a 90% chance that you'll make 5% between now and Aug 3 and a 10% chance that you'll lose 20% by Aug 3. Of course, if you're holding basuras, which most people are nowadays, then, there's even a 10% chance that you'll lose 40% by Aug 3.

What do you do?

July 26, 2011 (12:30 a.m.)

Dow Futures was down more than a hundred the whole morning, yet, no one was panicking. I guess we have really decoupled already.

Some high-flyer wannabes have peaked already and may never go back anywhere near their highs anymore anytime soon. For some of these issues, the next time they go back to those highs will be next year already. However, there will be a select few that will continue to trend up. The challenge now is to find those issues.

Some mining issues have peaked already. Obviously, they've peaked in the short-term but did they also peak in the medium-term? I'm guessing that some of them have already. Despite Gold continuing to trend up strongly, I'm not sure if those mining stocks will still follow.

The property sector has been the laggard of this market for the last several weeks now. Could it finally be their time now? Some of them have obviously begun to move already but this sector is still very, very far from the euphoric stage that the mining sector is experiencing right now.

Apple, Inc. (AAPL) just became the second most valuable company in the whole world next to Exxon Mobile with a market cap of $350 billion. For comparison, PLDT's market cap is a mere P10 billion.

July 23, 2011 (12:30 a.m.)

Today was probably the WILDEST day of the entire year. If you didn't get whipsawed today, you're probably a genius.

Did the mining sector finally peak today? I'm getting nervous of that sector already.

Could it finally be properties' time to shine again? VLL and ELI may have led the way.

PWR - Bottom at 2.49?

BHI - Continued up and down maybe for now.

ZHI - Peak at 0.88? Maybe.

VITA  - the real laggard among the four?

Penny stocks or those with 3 decimal points should be next in line to move. APM and OM seems to be leading the way.

Despite the market now at 4500, I totally did not feel the big caps moving. Aside from banks and mining (and MER today), all the blues and second-liners are merely consolidating and is not participating at all in this so called bull market. It's easy to look for "alpha" in this basura market but the problem is, how does one put a big position? Can you put 20% of your portfolio in a stock that goes up or down by 20% in one day? You make a wrong move and that's an easy 4% drop in your portfolio in just one day.

I will be conducting a 3-day seminar about Technical Analysis on the Philippine Stock Market on July 23, 30 and Aug 6, 2011. It will be from 9:00 a.m. to 12:00 noon at the Valle Verde Country Club in Pasig City (beside the formerly ULTRA). Topics of the seminar will include Classical patterns, Japanese Candlesticks, Technical indicators, Elliott Wave Principle and Trading Systems basics. Seminar fee is just P5,000.00 per head and will include a one month subscription to the Tsupitero Newsletter. Those who would like to attend may just email me at miko@tsupitero.com.

July 21, 2011 (12:30 a.m.)

I don't know if you've noticed but it seems like a make more money when the Dow drops a lot instead of when it climbs by 200 points just like last night. Today, aside from Lolo and a couple of high-flyers, the whole market was boring.

Among the four stocks that went to the ceiling the other day (PWR, VITA, BHI and ZHI), only ZHI and BHI were able to climb back up. Could these two be the "real deal"? PWR was the weakest among the four, despite it being the most popular. ZHI, on the other hand, even climbed back up to its ceiling price for the day. I guess ZHI is really "the God of Stocks". :-)

UNI has now joined the elite group of stocks that have gone to the ceiling. I'm betting that there will still be more out there that will eventually hit the ceiling too. The hunt is still on for the next "PWR".

July 20, 2011 (8:30 p.m.)

The sign of utmost complacency - when a stock opens at the ceiling price. What the hell were they thinking?

RCBC Securities buying P54 million worth of PWR at P4.25?!! Either this guy really knows something or he just committed suicide today.

With PWR now dropping down from the heavens, I would tend to think that the basura plays are now over, hopefully, just temporarily. It's back to regular programming with Lolo once again leading the way.

July 19, 2011 (12:00 a.m.)

It's been a while since I've seen four ceilings in one day - PWR, BHI, VITA and ZHI. PWR was especially exceptional because, who would have thought that it would go to the ceiling price today when it already has climbed up by 6 straight days in a row. I guess a lot of people are trying to short the stock and are just ending up buying back higher. I bet there were as much people who lost money today in PWR as those who made money. It would be interesting to see how these stocks perform though with the Dow down big time tonight.

With these basuras going to the ceiling, it is apparent that the market has now become very complacent. Of course, players in the basura market are a lot different from players in the blues. Retail investors are the ones playing the basuras. The big funds, on the other hand, are salivating and can do nothing about it. They cannot even place 5% of their portfolio in these issues. So, while the retail investors are complacent, the big funds are still cautious as seen by the non movement in the blues, except for a few select issues. Normally, when basuras move, it marks the end of an uptrend. For this market to continue moving higher, we need to see a shift from basuras to the blues. If the shift doesn't happen, we can say goodbye to this so called bull market.

July 17, 2011 (11:30 p.m.)

For the longest time, I don't think I've ever seen anything like PWR. Sure, there have been stocks that were wilder than PWR but most of them did not climb with same liquidity as PWR. Most of them did not climb up by five straight long white candles in a row and with hardly any corrections intra-day. With the way it is behaving, who knows where or when this one will peak? Of course, when this one starts to correct, I would expect the same velocity on the way down as it did on the way up. For now, the PWR rangers are still on the move.

I will be conducting a 3-day seminar about Technical Analysis on the Philippine Stock Market on July 23, 30 and Aug 6, 2011. It will be from 9:00 a.m. to 12:00 noon at the Valle Verde Country Club in Pasig City (beside the formerly ULTRA). Topics of the seminar will include Classical patterns, Japanese Candlesticks, Technical indicators, Elliott Wave Principle and Trading Systems basics. Seminar fee is just P5,000.00 per head and will include a one month subscription to the Tsupitero Newsletter. Those who would like to attend may just email me at miko@tsupitero.com.

July 14, 2011 (11:50 p.m.)

Welcome to the Basura market! Is this a sign? I hope not.

News came out today that trading will be extended to 1:00 p.m. on October and to 3:30 p.m. on January 2012. I'm going to make a bet. When the market starts trending down, we will return to trading up to 12:00 p.m. because volume tends to drop when prices fall. The solution - legalize short-selling. That way, we'll have a very active market regardless if prices are climbing or falling. Furthermore, one cannot make a career out of a "long only" market.

July 13, 2011 (11:30 p.m.)

For the entire run of LC from 0.45 to 0.98, I never bought LC, except for a few day-trades. What can I say? I just never trusted Lolo. Of course, it was my loss as LC has become the most spectacular stock this year so far. Yesterday, I finally decided to join the fun and was able to buy a huge position just before the start of the move. I think I might have sold too early today at 1.10. All I can say is, "masarap pala magmahal si Lolo". Happy Birthday Lolo! :-)

Looking at the Dow right now, I think it's pretty obvious that the PSE has formed a bottom at the 4333 level already. 4650 Coming?! Merry Christmas everyone! :-)

July 12, 2011 (10:30 p.m.)

Whereas the whole market looks vulnerable, some people thought that the market was up by 100 points.

Just when I thought PWR had a brown-out already, it almost went to the ceiling by climbing by as much as 48%. I guess people are speculating that this "nothing" will become "something" after the buy-out. Everyone's still guessing though what will be placed in here.

After a long, drawn out consolidation, LC finally broke thru its resistances and has begun to trend up. Impeccable timing by Lolo. Just when AT and RSA stocks where correcting, just when the Dow and the Dow Futures were down big and just after PWR had hit the ceiling...

Normally, insiders do not sell down when prices drop so why is Abacus and KingsPower still selling heavily this morning in AT despite prices already down quite a lot from its high yesterday at 24.40? Are they actually insiders? Are they panicking because they still have a lot of inventory to unload? Obviously, prices have formed a short-term peak at 24.40. It's still too early to say though if prices have also formed a medium-term peak already at 24.40. This might still just be a short-term correction within its overall uptrend or this might be a major one which could bring prices all the way back down to 20.00.

It seems some people were able to do a jail break this morning as Alcantara's Correctional Room (ACR) got unlocked. Volume was huge by ACR's standards but the big question is, will they be able to finally open the main gate? Got burned in this one in its last run but, for my comrades in HDI Securities, I certainly hope this would finally be the start of something big.

I will be conducting a 3-day seminar about Technical Analysis on the Philippine Stock Market on July 23, 30 and Aug 6, 2011. It will be from 9:00 a.m. to 12:00 noon at the Valle Verde Country Club in Pasig City (beside the formerly ULTRA). Topics of the seminar will include Classical patterns, Japanese Candlesticks, Technical indicators, Elliott Wave Principle and Trading Systems basics. Seminar fee is just P5,000.00 per head and will include a one month subscription to the Tsupitero Newsletter. Those who would like to attend may just email me at miko@tsupitero.com.

July 11, 2011 (11:30 p.m.)

I don't know if anyone noticed but BC just disclosed that it is giving out a P32.00 per share cash dividend. At first glance, I thought that it was BC itself that was going to give out the cash dividends but, when I read it again, I just realized that it was its subsidiary, Benguet Nickel Mines, that had declared the cash dividends. I almost bought all the shares being offered by BC today (haha).

July 8, 2011 (12:30 a.m.)

July 6, 2011 (9:00 p.m.)