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Miko's Blog for
July 2009
July 31, 2009
For the last few days, I have been holding PAX with
an average cost of P2.70. It already went to P3.15 but I didn't take
profits because I was thinking of holding it. Unfortunately, it dropped
back down near my cost. Since I was fearful of the price dropping below
my cost and since the stock looked weak, I sold it today. Damn! That's
the last time I'm going to do any buying and holding.
It's a good thing I was able to find something to
transfer it too as I loaded on the banking sector today. From the way I
see it, it's now the banking sector's turn to be in the limelight.
I got whipsawed in MEG today and I took profits from
my CYBR.
I don't think there is any need to be afraid of this
market, that is, as long as you buy the right stock and/or sector. In
the last couple of days, I was very fearful that MER might drag the
whole market down. While MER certainly looks dead already, funds are
rotating from one sector to another. Could the market be targeting 3000
already?
% of portfolio in the market - 50%
% in cash - 50%
Year to date return - 51%
July 30, 2009
What a day?!!
I made 7 round trips in MER today. I made money in 5
of them and was break-even on 2. I was so engrossed with MER that I
forgot all about my existing positions (hahaha).
I cut my remaining LC today. I lost one fluc in LIHC.
I lost two flucs in LIB. I bought a JAP stock. I bought CYBR.
I knew it. That's why I was having a tough time with
my trading the last couple of days - the market was consolidating and
was actually toppish. I was so puzzled with my trading the last couple
of days that I revised my proprietary Tsupitero index by removing MER.
Here is how the index looked like yesterday. If you'll notice, the index
was actually consolidating in the last three days. If I took out MER,
the index is up by only 26.89% year to date.
% of portfolio in the market - 40%
% in cash - 60%
Year to date return - 50%
July 29, 2009
Finally, I was able to make some money today by
selling my CMT, RCM and MUSX. I think Chucky was able to read my blog so
he helped me make money today. He knows that by doing so he will be able
to get more money from me in the future (hahaha).
I took a one fluc hit in MPI, which I bought
yesterday. I got whipsawed in LC.
I replaced my Chucky stock with another Chucky stock
once again. I added more to my biggest position in my portfolio. I
bought a miniscule position in a stock that often moves at the very end
of the bull market. I feel like starting to position in those ultra
basura issues that no one is minding yet right now.
Overall, I was even for the day. Unbelievable! (hahaha)
MER hit 300.00 then stalled. Could this be the end of
Christmas? Congratulations to everybody who made money on MER! I still
don't know whom to congratulate though, MVP or RSA?
% of portfolio in the market - 50%
% in cash - 50%
Year to date return - 51%
July 28, 2009
Yesterday, I was getting frustrated by my trading.
Today, I'm getting depressed. I can't believe how much whipsaws I did
today. Is it just me or is the market really getting choppy? The market
is making new highs but I'm losing money. Unbelievable!
I high-jacked NI at the opening today but it failed
so I sold one fluc lower. I tried bidding up PAX earlier in the day but
I ended up selling one fluc lower in that one as well. I lost two flucs
in the LC that I bought yesterday. I bought a couple of issues today
that didn't really take off and I ended up buying at the highs. I bought
some Cement issues today. I certainly hope that works out ok.
If I still lose money tomorrow, I'm going to rest for
a couple of days or I might end up doing some revenge trading already.
Every once in a while I have these sort of losing streaks that I need to
shake off. Maybe I became too cocky or maybe the trend is changing.
Whatever it is, it's acting in exact contra to my buy signals.
MER is just unbelievable. I can't understand why I'm
not buying it. I guess it's my natural tendency to be a contrarian.
However, being a contrarian in this stock is actually to buy it because
everybody else is scared of buying it already. Would it be too late to
buy it at current levels? I'm contradicting my statement above by saying
this but I think a peak in MER is now just around the corner.
% of portfolio in the market - 70%
% in cash - 30%
Year to date return - 51%
July 27, 2009
I'm getting frustrated with myself in this market.
Everything is so strong that I just couldn't pinpoint what issues to
focus on. Thus, I end up buying issues that are so-so. In this kind of
market, everything will go up eventually but, as a Tsupitero, you want
to buy something that is going up right now.
Anyway, I sold all my remaining TUNA today because it
was a laggard. I took profits from my FLI today simply because I wanted
to taste some profits already. I think I made a wrong decision by doing
so.
I replaced my Chucky stock with another Chucky stock.
If I don't make money on this one, I'm banning Chucky for life. I also
bought a mining stock.
Congratulations on everybody who made money on this
run. For the unbelievers, don't worry, I don't think this will end
anytime soon. While there will be ups and downs, the market is now
trending up.
% of portfolio in the market - 70%
% in cash - 30%
Year to date return - 53%
July 24, 2009
I'm quite disappointed with myself because I made
some wrong decisions on my trades today. For the last few days, I noticed
that when I sell, prices seem to continue to climb further. So, this
time, I thought of holding. Damn, I should have take profits when I
could. The market is playing tricks on me right now. Oh well, we are in
a bull market anyway so I don't think there is any need to hurry on
the selling.
I really have a hard time trading the market when
everything is going up. When everything is going up, I just can't seem
to pinpoint which issue I should concentrate on. Furthermore, I find it
hard to trade when I have more than three issues in my portfolio. For
sure, there will be one issue that I would tend to neglect.
I sold my BPC today for some profits and I also
lightened up on some positions. I sold my CMT at cost.
I bought a property issue because I think the
properties are the ones that are about to move big time next.
Could the market actually be heading towards 3000
already? For the last few days, some people doesn't think so because the
blue chips aren't moving. Are you a believer now? :-)
% of portfolio in the market - 70%
% in cash - 30%
Year to date return - 53%
July 23, 2009
Today gave me another reason to buy into this market
as prices just doesn't want to drop, despite almost everybody expecting
a correction. For the first time in a long while, I am now close to
being "all-in".
I sold my AT at cost cause it seems heavy at the 7.00
level. I got hit a bit on RCM. I bought it on the retracement after it
hit the ceiling price thinking that it was going to climb back up by the
end of the day. By quarter to 12, I gave up on it already and sold it with a
small loss. As usual, I sold my RFM too early. For the last few days, I
have been noticing that the market always goes beyond, in fact, even
well beyond, my selling price. This alone is already telling me that the
market is continuing to climb higher.
I bought a small position on CMT and I averaged up on
my call center play.
I'm giving the bears up to tomorrow to make this
market drop. If the bears fail by tomorrow, the bulls will eat you alive
next week.
% of portfolio in the market - 90%
% in cash - 10%
Year to date return - 52%
July 22, 2009
After playing it conservatively for the last few
days, I finally got the courage to enter a big position in the market
already. The behavior of the markets right now is telling me that this
isn't going to drop anytime soon. In fact, with so many people I know
being very liquid right now because they are afraid of a correction,
there is even a big possibility for the market to spike up.
I sold all my NI and LC today.
I bought more of my Chucky stock. I bought a Lopez
stock. I bought a call center. I bought a mining company. And, I bought
a small position in a Conception stock. There were a lot more issues
that I wanted to buy but I was trying to control myself already.
I wonder if the market is just waiting for me to be
aggressive before it starts to drop (hahaha).
% of portfolio in the market - 70%
% in cash - 30%
Year to date return - 52%
July 21, 2009
I made a major blooper today by selling all my MER
too early. I made a measly 1% in the portfolio in that trade. I have no
regrets on my selling but I should have bought it back higher. Damn!
I bought a JAP stock, a Lolo stock and a Chucky stock
today.
It's quite difficult to trade this stage of the
market. It's high so it's a bit scary to buy but it doesn't want to go
down either.
% of portfolio in the market - 30%
% in cash - 70%
Year to date return - 50%
July 20, 2009
I lost a bit in the market today c/o MPI. When the
stock resumed trading at 11:00 a.m., I bid it up not knowing at all what
the news on the stock was. I was just thinking that, if someone was
bidding it up after it got suspended, then, the news ought to be
bullish. I ended up selling it again at the end of the day and I lost
almost 1% of the portfolio in that trade.
My saving grace was MER, which I averaged up again
today. I am no longer holding any other stock except MER. I sold my EDC
at break-even cause it doesn't look like it will trend. I also sold my
miniscule position in V cause there doesn't seem to be anything there.
% of portfolio in the market - 40%
% in cash - 60%
Year to date return - 49%
July 17, 2009
I really don't see the point of suspending trading
when everybody is in the office already. It's either you suspend trading
in the early morning or you don't. But suspending trading at 9:20 a.m.?!
... only in the Philippines!
P15,000,000.00 - The amount of Sales Tax that the
government lost because of no trading in the PSE today.
P40.00 - The cost of my parking ticket this morning.
July 16, 2009
I just arrived from Sydney last night. That was such
an expensive vacation because, not only did I spend a lot over there, I
also incurred some missed opportunities here in the PSE while I was
away. Partida na yan ha (haha).
Thank God I was able to get my DST refund though and
I was surprised when it came out to be more than 6% of my total
portfolio. Now, I'm sure, there are definitely a lot of Tsupiteros there
in Congress. :-)
Anyway, here's what I did today: I lost a bit in PAX
today but it's a good thing I was able to even that out by buying tons
of MER. I also bought a position in EDC and a miniscule position in V.
All markets seem to have turned in the last couple of
days. The PSEi, the Dow, Oil and Gold seems to have turned back up. The
Dollar, on the other hand, seems to have turned back down. No more
correction in the 3rd quarter?
% of portfolio in the market - 45%
% in cash - 55%
Year to date return - 50%
July 7, 2009
I took profits from all my PX today. Thank you MVP. I
will vote you for President if you run (haha). I'm glad to have made
another 6% in the portfolio since the market topped out at 2626. Upon
estimating the refund that I would get because of the DST, I was
surprised that it would add another 5% to my ROI for the year. So, for
the year, if I include the DST, I am already up by roughly 50%. Too bad
for long-term traders. You only get a measly refund (hihihi).
I'll be taking a one week vacation from the markets.
I'll be taking my family to Sydney for a vacation. The next update on my
blog will already be on July 16, 2009.
See you at Dow 7500!
% of portfolio in the market - 0%
% in cash - 100%
ROI in 2007 - 70%
ROI in 2008 - (23%)
ROI from Jan 1, 2007 - 81%
ROI from Jan 1, 2008 - 11%
ROI from Jan 1, 2009 - 44%
July 6, 2009
I sold my TUNA and ZHI today for some coffee money. I
began liquidating some positions because I'll be out of the country on
Thursday and I don't want to get caught with a drawdown before then. Had
I not had this constraint, I would have just held on to those positions
cause they still looked relatively strong. In fact, of all the charts in
the PSE right now, I like TUNA the most. This is an objective assessment
because I am no longer holding any TUNA.
PSEi looks relatively strong considering that Dow
Futures are down a lot.
% of portfolio in the market - 30%
% in cash - 70%
Year to date return - 43%
July 5, 2009
A
group picture of the participants of my seminar last week. :-)
July 3, 2009
I held on to all my positions today. The market looks
very resilient. Could the entire Asia actually be decoupling already
from the US markets?
I was able to day-trade MPI and PAX for some coffee
money. I bought a miniscule position in ZHI. The fact that this is still
trading actively up to now tells me there must be something going on in
here.
I feel like I've over-positioned in this market
yesterday. I was thinking that, because the Dow climbed up last
Wednesday, that they've discounted the jobs reports already. Obviously,
they didn't. But, I guess, after last night's big drop, now they've
discounted it already (hahaha). The dollar climbed up last night but I
still think that this may just be rallying before it continues to trend
down.
% of portfolio in the market - 55%
% in cash - 45%
Year to date return - 43%
July 2, 2009
I sold all my PAX and MPI today. PAX was so
disappointing but at least I was able to get out at cost. I sold MPI
with some coffee money.
I bought a huge position on PX. I think Gold will
head back up to 1000. I also bought back the stock, which I sold the
other day. I feel like being greedy with this one. I think something
fishy is going on.
% of portfolio in the market - 50%
% in cash - 50%
Year to date return - 43%
July 1, 2009
I wasn't planning on trading today but I just
couldn't resist buying the two strongest and most volatile stocks in the
market this morning.
% of portfolio in the market - 35%
% in cash - 65%
Year to date return - 43%
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