for January 2013
January 20, 2013 (3:00 p.m.)
After giving it much thought, I've decided to migrate my blog to
Twitter and Facebook. Effective tomorrow, Jan 21, 2013, you can now view
my blog at either:
Sorry Tsupiteros, I will no longer update any of my web
pages effective today. This website will now just remain a static
website for those who would like to know what Tsupitero.com is all
about. I'll try to clean up this website one of these days when I have
the time. All updates and announcements on Tsupitero.com will now be
posted in either Facebook or Twitter.
January 19, 2013 (9:30 p.m.)
TEL saved the market. Looked impossible just a couple of
weeks ago but are we now looking at 6300 soon?! This market is simply
destroying all the remaining bears alive.
I'm no longer that bullish in the mining sector at this
point. I think it's quite over-heated in the short-term already.
One laggard sector that may have begun to trend up only
today though is the Oil sector.
Time to sell Mining and shift to Oil?
I don't think anyone saw that move of GLO. I didn't even
know that it was still listed (haha).
Chucky pushing LMG to sell at a higher price? Or is this
a possible CHIPS in the making?
Someone flipped my beloved TA in Nieves in the last two
days. Congratulations to you but you are going to buy higher! (haha)
January 17, 2013 (9:30 p.m.)
After what happened to SLI yesterday and ARA today, 3rd
liners will probably cool down again for now, except maybe for a handful
of exceptions. Notice that all the top losers today were 3rd line
issues. Is ZHI the exception?
Mining is still the theme of the market right now with
PX leading the way. I'm looking at Gold and, if I'm not mistaken, it
looks like it's going to break 1700 very, very soon.
What the hell was that all about in TSI?
So far, 6000 is holding. Whew!
Congratulations to those who followed my recommendation
in DNL yesterday in my newsletter!
P.S. I wasn't the one buying TA
January 16, 2013 (10:00 p.m.)
After the God of Stocks, ARA suddenly came to life and
was the next ceiling. There must be news forthcoming in that one. Funny
that some basuras started popping after lunch after seeing ARA and SLI
move before lunch. At the end of the day, only the ones which had a real
story survived. Despite P75 million traded, I'm not even sure if there
was anything about SLI's move today or was merely played out to make a
Trick question: After CPG, ARA and SLI, what comes next?
News came out today that PX's fine of P1 billion is now
final. The news gave an excuse for the longs to take profits. In reality
though, I believe the news was already built-in into the price. People
who bought from 12.50 to 18.00 knew that there was a possibility that
the company will get fined. In 2011 alone, PX made P5.8 billion in its
bottom-line and, as of its last report, currently has P2.7 billion in
cash, thus, a P1 billion fine shouldn't be much of a problem to them
once they resume full production.
My wish for 2013: PHN/TA is the next AEV/AP
January 15, 2013 (11:00 p.m.)
Could 6140.72 be it?!
All of a sudden, the mining sector is now alive and
kicking. Be careful though, I think a short-term peak is now just around
ZHI has once again re-asserted itself and has once again
shown why he is the God of stocks. In my opinion though, it might have
flown too fast, too soon.
Anyone noticed PHN today? Unknown to many, PHN is
actually the mother company of TA. If I'm not mistaken, PHN own around
25% of TA. Thus, if you like TA, then, you ought to like PHN too. :-)
January 14, 2013 (11:00 p.m.)
Take out that cross transaction in BLOOM and foreign
funds were still net buyers today by more than P400 million. Bulls
better hope these foreign funds don't stop buying. For this January
alone, foreign funds were net buyers by P4.2 billion. Wow!
The big story of the day was the resurrection of the God
of Stocks, ZHI! ZHI has always been a backdoor-listing candidate,
however, could it finally be real this time around? Or, was today's move
simply a sympathy play as all the other Lolo stocks have begun to move
Maybe it is even MIC, which is the "real thing"?
My favorite stock right now, TA, continued to shake the
weak hands today and are being replaced by the stronger hands or so it
Another one of my favorite stocks at the moment, PX,
continued to be very strong today. It would be interesting to hear what
MVP will announce next as the price action of the stock is certainly
indicating that the resumption of its production will be well ahead of
Chucky seems to be panicking in his stocks. He might be
scared that he will not be able to sell at the highs. :-)
January 12, 2013 (2:30 p.m.)
Remarkable move by DNL. I've noticed recently, all IPOs
which performed rather meek in its first few days of trading, just hold
it and you get rewarded a few weeks after. Of course, they may no longer
hold true if the bull market ends.
With almost everything now very high, the market has
finally begun to shift to the laggard mining sector. That's seems like a
logical move. You may ask, but why isn't Jap stocks moving? That's
because Jap stocks aren't mining stocks. They are Jap stocks. There's a
big difference. Of course, at some point, Jap stocks should start moving
as well. Every dog has its day.
From the way PX has been behaving recently, I would tend
to think that its production will resume sooner than later. From the way
I see it, if you buy PX at any price below 20.00 and hold it until the
company announces that they have begun to produce again, you should make
My TA is continuing to form new highs once again.
Contrary to what some people think, TA is actually trading at a new
all-time already right now, that is, if you adjust the price on its
stock rights offering held last year. Tsupiteros selling TA now and
long-term traders buying it, I'm guessing.
Market continuing to form new all-time highs. I'm
getting worried cause I have friends and cousins, who don't play the
stock market, are suddenly interested in investing.
January 10, 2013 (10:30 p.m.)
Market finally corrects after 7 consecutive up days in a
row. Would you believe, even if I took out all the block sales, foreign
funds were still net buyers today?!
I see some stocks that may have peaked in the
medium-term already, I'm guessing of course - PIP, EW, MEG and SM.
Ironically, I also see some stocks that may have
bottomed-out in the medium-term as well - CPG, NIKL, PX and CPM.
BLOOM was downgraded by Deutsche to a "hold", while
upgrading BEL to a "buy", rightly so, I believe.
Despite the weakness of the whole market, my TA
continued to form new all-time highs today. I guess Valuequest is a
dealer account, with the way he plays the game.
January 9, 2013 (10:30 p.m.)
For the last couple of weeks, I have been thinking and
thinking of how to trade an overbought market without getting scared
that you are already buying at the peak. My solution has been to buy
issues that you are really committed to and that you would not get
scared to hold on to even if the market drops.
There is one particular stock that has been neglected by
the market for the last couple of years but appears to be ripe now -
TA. It has been a very long time since I have promoted any stock in the
market but this one seems to have all the ingredients to be a "sure
thing" so I'm staking my reputation here. :-)
EPS - P0.18
P/E ratio - 7.6x
Book value -
is extremely cheap. I don't know of any stock in the market that even
comes close to this one.
What is the
storyline? TA is primarily a power company with some investments in oil.
While low valuations itself may push the stock price higher already, the
main trigger of the stock will be when the Maibarara Power Plant which
will start commencing operations by October 2013. TA has a 25% stake in
this project. If you are willing to hold this one for a longer-term, you
might want to wait for the power plant in Calaca, Batangas to go on
stream in the 3rd quarter of 2014. These two projects alone will
significantly increase the bottom-line of the company. Its oil
exploration business is just a bonus for the company if ever they are
able to hit gold, black gold, that is.
What about its
technicals? Below is the current chart of TA.
The chart above
is a 7-year weekly chart of the stock. Notice that prices have just
broken above its long-term channel (blue solid parallel lines). Notice
also that the stock is now trading at its highest weekly volume ever. By
these two indications alone, you know something extraordinary is already
happening in the stock. All-time high of the stock is just a mere P1.41,
which was last seen in Oct 2007. If the stock is able to breakout above
that level, there won't be any more resistances left aside from those
who bought down below and will be taking profits.
My 6 to 12 month
target - P2.00
January 8, 2013 (4:30 p.m.)
I knew CPG already formed a bottom but 1.76? Wow! I
certainly did not see that one coming in this run yet.
Correction in MEG and MPI was expected.
PRC today was LMG yesterday? I guess "they" just hit all
the way to the ceiling so that there would be people who would buy once
they started distributing on the way down.
Nice breakout on PXP today. Obviously, that one is
confirmed to have bottomed-out already in the medium-term.
MRC is still in a reverse bull market. Anyone saw that
huge cross in EG? More shares to destroy the stock?
Lopez are now in play once again.
Our market still on steriods. Bulls better hope the
spell doesn't wear out soon.
January 7, 2013 (10:00 p.m.)
Once again, we the best performing market in the entire
Asian region today. No one even comes close. Why? Foreign funds poured
in P1.7 billion in our market today. These foreign funds are certainly
seeing something in our market that I don't.
Parabolic spike now in MEG as foreign funds become very
aggressive. I'm certainly not touching that one at current levels.
Another stock that I'm definitely not touching is LMG.
Is that's Chucky new baby?
Could SMC finally have bottomed-out already at 100?
Another one that seems to have finally bottomed-out as well is CPG at
1.38. Actually, even the entire mining sector appears to have
bottomed-out. Yes, maybe even those awful-looking JAP stocks.
January 2, 2013 (10:30 p.m.)
The US was able to avert the fiscal cliff (for now) and
a relief rally occurs in world markets, ours included. So, are the
markets out of the woods already? Well, there is still that issue of the
What a move by TA today?! Could this finally be the
beginning of a revaluation of the market on the stock? It's about time!
A new all-time high in the stock is just a mere 8 cents away.
ABS was another very good performer today. As election
draws closer and closer, prices of this one should climb further still
until the market discounts it fully.
SMPH's behavior is certainly quite peculiar. While it is
trending up like the rest of the big caps, it has a completely different
Anyone noticed JP Morgan in GTCAP? He sold 80k shares at
the lows last Wednesday and bought back almost 180k shares at the highs
I updated my proprietary Tsupitero Index over the
weekend. I took out AT, DIZ, DMC, ICT, MPI, NI, ORE, PHES and SCC. I
replaced them with ABSP, APM, CAL, ELI, JGS, LPZ, LTG, PIP and RLC. To
view the updated chart, click here, TSUPITERO Index.
By the way, the index was up by 36.62% last year.