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Miko's Blog for
Jan 2011
January 31, 2011 (4:00 p.m.)
If you think about it, our market has been dropping
in the last few weeks mainly because foreign funds have been selling in
our market and are returning to the US. Now that the US has begun to
drop, shouldn't the foreign funds buyback into our market again?
Apparently not because they were net sellers today by more than P1.1
billion.
Despite the big drop that our market has had already
in the last few weeks, notice that no one seems to be saying that the
market will crash...hmmm. We are still trending up in the medium-term
but those 200-day moving averages must hold at all costs or else...
A lot of companies like RFM are trying to play catch
up and still force to do a secondary offering but in this kind of
environment will there still be any buyers? The big question is, have
they already missed the opportunity to sell? I think the only company
that can still pull of a secondary offering at this time is SMC. Of
course, it would still depend on how much RSA is going to price it.
Other than SMC, maybe other companies can just try their luck again in 2
to 3 years time (hehe).
The only stock, which continued to be strong today,
was Lolo's Manila Mining but, in this kind of market, will there be
anyone willing to buy higher by tomorrow?
Sorry, I wasn't able to update my website last
weekend because I had to bring my notebook in the shop for some minor
repairs. I'll be updating it on Feb 7.
January 27, 2011 (6:00 p.m.)
The meaning of the word, lucky - when you are
holding tons of SMC at 150.00 and RSA suddenly comes out and says that
he now plans to do a secondary offering at P250.00. Oh, I almost forgot
to ask, who's going to buy it at P250.00?
I told you, Deutsche Regis is on drugs in MER.
Yesterday, he was net buyer of the stock by almost 700,000 shares at an
average price of P268.00. Today, he was a net seller in the stock by
almost 500,000 shares at an average price of P254.00. Did he really just
wanted to give away P10 million in the market? Strange. I have a couple
of theories on this but I guess we'll just never know for sure.
Market has turned up in the short-term again today
but foreign funds were still net sellers by more than P400 million if
you took out the block sales in MER.
I'll be having my notebook serviced in the shop over
the weekend so I'm not sure if I will be able to update my website. My next post here in my blog will be on Monday already. Happy
Weekend Tsupiteros!
January 26, 2011 (8:45 p.m.)
The three strongest stocks in the market yesterday
were LND, CYBR and PCOR. For those who read charts, I'm pretty sure you
understood why LND was stronger than CYBR or PCOR today. Tomorrow though
is another day. Incidentally, LND, LR and BEL are one of only a handful
of stocks that were trending up when the market was trading at 4150 and
are still trending up up to now. Congratulations to all those who have
those three issues!
Foreign selling continued to dominate our market
today as they sold almost P1B again today, if you removed all the block
sales. Maybe the bombing yesterday exacerbated the selling or maybe not
but, at the rate they are going, I'm not even quite sure anymore if the
market's major support at around 3800 will hold or not.
I thought I saw JAP in MER this morning. When I
looked at the ticker, it was Deutsche Regis. I wonder if he's on drugs.
I think I'd like to take some of that (haha).
January 25, 2011 (5:30 p.m.)
Did the Dow do what I think it just did last night?
Begin a parabolic move to the upside? The PSEi has finally rallied today
after five straight down days in a row. Let's hope it's something more
than just a dead-cat bounce. I wonder if the Bus bombing in EDSA would
have an effect in the market tomorrow.
I see a lot of bullish short-term reversals in the
market today with RSA stocks leading the way.
A lot of people have been asking, where am I going
after HDI Securities? I'm sorry but I'll keep it as a secret for now.
:-)
January 24, 2011 (5:30 p.m.)
There isn't much we can do with this market unless
the foreign funds stop selling. Today, they were net sellers by another
P656 million worth. Notice that Jakarta was also down a lot today. There
seems to be a lot of bargains right now but, when prices are trending
(downwards) just like what it is doing right now, it's just too risky to
try and nail the bottom. Buy when there is blood in the streets? Sure,
be my guest! :-)
I mentioned at the start of the year that one of the
possible opportunities of this market this year would be stocks that are
going to do a secondary offering (2PO). Of course, I'm assuming that the
market will continue to stay afloat. Last Friday, FDC announced that it
was postponing its planned 2PO. Obviously, they no longer wanted to do
it now because the condition of the market has deteriorated. SMC fell
big time as well today because the market may be thinking that they too
might postpone their planned 2PO.
The bulls and the bears continue to do a tug-o-war in
MER. The last two days, the bears were in control. Today, it was the
bulls' turn to win the battle. I wonder who's going to win the war.
Last Friday was my last day in HDI Securities. I left
the firm with a heavy heart as I certainly had fond memories there. I
wish my boss, Mr. George Cheng, and the rest of my comrades there good
luck in their trading.
January 22, 2011 (10:30 a.m.)
The market has broken below the infamous 4000 level
already as foreign funds continue to be aggressive sellers in our
market. Today, they were net sellers by another P867 million worth. A
couple of weeks ago, Tsupiteros were not minding the market at all as
there were a lot of basura stocks going up anyway. Today, there is just
no more place to hide anymore. In fact, what may be vulnerable right now
are those that are still trending up as some people might decide to take
profits on those issues that they are still up in order to "finance"
their losing positions.
Take note, the Dow hasn't even dropped yet. There is
something strange going on in the US markets right now. While the Dow is
still relatively strong, the Nasdaq is visibly diverging. It's like only
the blue chips in the US are still strong but most issues are already
starting to fall.
Song of the Day - My Way by Frank Sinatra
And now, the end is here
And so I face the final curtain
My friend, I'll say it clear
I'll state my case, of which I'm certain
I've lived a life that's full
I traveled each and every highway
And more, much more than this, I did it my way
Regrets, I've had a few
But then again, too few to mention
I did what I had to do and saw it through without
exemption
I planned each charted course, each careful step
along the byway
And more, much more than this, I did it my way
Yes, there were times, I'm sure you knew
When I bit off more than I could chew
But through it all when there was doubt
I ate it up and spit it out
I faced it all and stood tall and did it my way
I've loved, I've laughed and cried
I've had my fill, my share of losing
And now, as tears subside, I find it all so amusing
To think I did all that
And may I say, not in a shy way
Oh, no, oh, no, not me, I did it my way
For what is a man, what has he got?
If not himself, then, he has naught
To say the things he truly feels and not the words of
one who kneels
The record shows I took the blows and did it my way!
Yes, it was my way
January 20, 2011 (5:30 p.m.)
I have to say, this market has suddenly become very
tricky and tough to decipher since the last three days. Some of things
that I used to do in the last couple of weeks that worked, is no longer
working anymore. I'm going to be defensive for now. I don't want to lose
whatever gains that I've made so far this year.
How does one know if prices have begun to trend down?
One way of knowing is when you buy at a price, which you think is
already very low, yet, prices continue to drop well below where you
bought it.
The Dow was down by just 12 points last night but,
had it not been for IBM, Dow would have dropped by 3 digits. Notice that
both S&P and the Nasdaq was down by more than 1%. Could the US have
started its correction phase already?
I am continuing to get dizzy by MER's movements. I
wonder if yesterday's strong rally was nothing more than
"short-covering". I'm still looking at 400.00 unless prices fail to hold
above 250.00.
January 19, 2011 (9:30 p.m.)
Although the general market sucks, I see a lot of
issues that looks like a "buy" to me already. I don't know if the market
is just playing tricks with my mind or the market is really very
selective.
I bet a lot of people got whipsawed in MER today.
Surprisingly, the biggest broker that got whipsawed was Deutsche Regis
himself. Could the buyer and the seller actually be the same person?
Given the wild movements of the stock in the last couple of days, my
guess is that the buyer and the seller are different. There is just one
group who is dying to get out of the stock and there is this other group
who is willing to buy at any price. Furthermore, fundamentalists are
seeing the stock as overvalued and are bearish while technicians like me
are seeing the stock as trending up and are bullish. The strange thing
is, both the bulls and the bears have the same strong convictions on the
stock. Place your bets! My bet is still 400.00 coming!!!
I'm quite interested in what's going to happen with
LR because everyone seems to be very bullish about it but the stock is
just extremely overbought. Macquarie, who was the big buyer of this
stock in the last few days, suddenly reversed and became a net seller
today. I think he got a bit concerned when the real foreign entity
started selling - RCBC.
FDC is another interesting stock as prices dropped
down to as low as 5.00. I think it is pretty evident right now that the
2PO will be priced at a low level, judging by the behavior of the stock.
Would they price it below 5.00? I doubt it unless the Gotianuns want to
give away free money. :-)
Could MEG and FLI be near a medium-term bottom
already today? Could RSA stocks (SMC, PCOR and SMB) have bottomed-out
already today as well?
January 18, 2011 (2:00 p.m.)
Just when everybody thought that these high-flyers
will just continue to go higher and higher, the market gives a reality
check and causes a bearish reversal on a lot of issues. What made this
reversal so tricky is that, for the last few days, these high-flyers are
not minding the market at all. Unfortunately, it was a trap and these
simply cannot be sustained without the help of the entire market.
There were still a handful of issues though that
still continued to be strong up to today. I'm quite surprised that BEL/LR
are still way up there in the air. I don't know but I'm not touching
those stocks anymore at current levels.
I was very surprised by the behavior of MER. Did it
form a bull-trap or was it just affected by the weakness of the whole
market? I don't want to find out anymore by tomorrow so I just sold my
position with a small loss.
Remember Tsupiteros, at the end of the trend,
everybody loses money. What separates the men from the boys is that the
men are able to keep their winnings once the music stops. :-)
January 17, 2011 (9:00 p.m.)
Is the market really still down for the year? I feel
like the market is already trading at 5000 right now (hehe). So far this
year, it has been a heyday for Tsupiteros and Momentum traders alike.
Big institutional investors, who are positioning in the big caps right
now, have yet to make money this year. Of course, there will come a time
when the fireworks will end but I sure hope it doesn't end soon. :-)
One big cap though is certainly bucking the trend and
is clearly trending higher - Meralco. Curiously, all the foreign
brokerages report I read in MER is giving a "sell" recommendation in the
stock. I don't know but, from a technical point of view, it looks like
it's going to make a new high very, very soon. From the way I see it,
something is certainly brewing in MER and it has got nothing to do with
valuations. :-)
The Dep't of Finance is threatening to impose a
higher capital gains tax on listed issues that have free floats of less
than 10%. This news is actually bullish because, ironically, the only
way that you can increase the public float and attract buyers to your
stock is by pushing it up.
PAGCOR is now danggling the idea that they are going
to sell their assets to the private sector. I guess with the emergence
of Resorts World and the upcoming Pagcor City, they realized that no one
will go to their casinos anymore by next year. You can bet that
everybody from RSA, MVP, Andrew Tan, Tatang, etc. will want to bid for
their prized assets. You can also bet that PAGCOR will be the real
winner in the end.
The stock that I was referring to the last few days
is URC. It hasn't made a big move yet, actually, but appears to have
clearly made a bottom at 34.30 already.
FDC is acting very strange, if you ask me. It looks
like a "no-brainer" buy to me but I'm really wondering why a lot of
people are still selling it at current levels. It tried to trend up last
Friday but was met by tremendous selling pressure right after the
opening gap. Fortunately for the bulls, ATR Kim-Eng was there to save
the day. Could it be that the 2PO price will be at a low level? I sold
my position in that stock last Friday and just concentrated on faster
moving issues. I think I might have gotten shaken out. Oh well, it's not
for me I guess.
January 13, 2011 (10:30 p.m.)
So many basuras, so little time! Notice that, despite
the number of basuras that are flying, none are going to the ceiling.
You can thank the PSE for that. I guess sell you can start selling when
your position goes up by 40%. Be careful Tsupiteros, I bet 90% of all
those basuras that are moving up right now are simply taking advantage
of the situation. Just trade it and get out. You certainly don't want to
be left holding the bag. The market better rotate back to the blues soon
or it's game over. Remember, basuras could be moving because most find
the big caps expensive already.
Could the selling of Deutsche Regis in Meralco today
be the same client that was buying heavily yesterday? That was very
strange, if you ask me. It's like he found out something and just
decided to sell his position back to the market.
Just as expected, CYBR has finally peaked today. The
question is, was that 1.42 high just a short-term peak or was it a
medium-term peak? From the way I see it, target has already been
achieved.
The stock that I was referring to yesterday was not
Alliance Tuna. What I meant was, it is a stock in the Food industry. I
am quite curious about it because the chart looks really good to me and
there seems to be some accumulation going on at current levels. I'll
reveal it once I've bought it already (hahaha). For those who subscribe
to my newsletter, I'm sure you know what I'm talking about.
Another stock, which I've been recommending in my
newsletter for quite some time now, has finally broken out of its range
today. The stock is currently trading at a mere 11x P/E (2010) and has a
book value of P8.80. Its free float is just under 8% according to the
PSE website but will soon do a secondary offering (2PO). The stock I am
referring to is FDC. Will the Gotianuns actually be willing to do a 2PO
at such low valuations? I don't think so.
January 12, 2011 (11:00 p.m.)
Isn't it so weird that the market is acting so weak,
yet, I'm getting dizzy by the number of issues that are hitting the
roof? I'm not complaining, of course. :-)
Indonesia was up by 2.88% and India was up by 1.76%.
Could this mean that we will have a big rally tomorrow? :-)
The big story of the day is MER, which closed just a
touch shy of its all-time high of 302.50 on the back of a P289 million
buying order from Deutsche Regis. Could this be because of the Lopez's
swing vote in MER, which MVP and RSA is fighting over? I wonder if
either MVP or RSA is using Deutsche Regis? Whoever it is, the chart is
telling me that P400.00 is now possible.
CYBR continued to rocket higher again this morning.
It looks like prices will still climb higher by tomorrow but I'm not
touching that one anymore at these levels.
Have RSA stocks peaked already? From the way SMC
behaved this morning, it doesn't seem like it.
ACR finally broke out of its consolidation today and
may have begun to trend up already. I don't have a position in the stock
but I'm very happy for my comrades in HDI. 2.00 coming? :-)
I normally don't recommend anything in my newsletter
that isn't trending up but I decided to make an exception in my
newsletter today. For the last few days, I have been noticing one
particular sector that is quietly bucking the downtrend of the market -
Food.
January 11, 2011 (3:20 p.m.)
RSA is no longer the man, Bennett is now the man!! (haha)
I wonder if RSA stocks did bull-traps today.
With the market down by 3 digits and foreign funds
net sellers by more than a billion pesos today, even RSA stocks were no
longer immune. Strangely though, there are still quite a number of
stocks, which are bucking the trend.
Do you feel bad about what happened to our market in
the last two days? Maybe you'll feel better if you learned that the
Bangladesh Stock Market dropped by 9% yesterday. A 9% drop in our market
is equivalent to a 350 point drop.
The 91-day treasury bill dropped to 0.70% in
yesterday's auction in Bureau of Treasury. If the stock market is
falling and the money market is hardly giving any returns, where can
funds go now?
January 10, 2011 (11:15 p.m.)
Last Friday, we were only guessing that some foreign
funds were exiting Asia as both India and Indonesia started exhibiting
some signs of weakness along with our market. But after what happened
today, I believe the exodus is confirmed. India was down by 2.38% by the
close, Indonesia was down by a whopping 4.21% and our very own PSEi was
down by 2.14%. The thing is, with the Dow currently down by 75 points as
of this writing, where are the funds going?
While the whole market was down, some very select
issues still continued to climb higher. The highlight of the day though
was the big turnaround in all the RSA stocks. RSA is still the man!!!
:-)
January 8, 2011
Yesterday, it was PA. Today, it was LR. I wonder
what's going to hit the ceiling price on Monday. Given that it is now
officially a "basura market", a lot are trying to "push" prices as well.
Be sure you know how to differentiate the real plays from the fake ones.
The PSE immediately triggered an SOP investigation on
LR following the stock hitting its ceiling price yesterday. I find this
quite absurd because it doesn't necessarily mean that if a price hits a
ceiling price that some "hanky-panky" is going on. Likewise, it
doesn't necessarily mean that if a price is not moving, that nothing
foolish is going on. I swear, when I retire from trading, I'll apply for
head of surveillance in the PSE (haha).
CYBR climbed up by a whopping 24% today as Value
Quest suddenly reversed and bought back. The thing is, is RSA really
buying on the board? Congrats to Mr. Bennett and, my good friend, LN!
:-)
Indonesia was down by a huge 2.81% yesterday. I don't
know if you've noticed but, since November, the PSEi is now lagging the
US market. Could funds be shifting back to the US already?
January 6, 2011
This is the problem when a lot of issues are moving
all at the same time - nothing happens (haha). Only NIKL, FDC and LIB
were able to move in a straight line. If you traded other stocks than
these three, you probably were whipsawed today.
Day-traders had the time of their lives today, Swing
traders were getting whipsawed left and right while Position-traders are
just watching in the sidelines and getting amused by all the ruckus.
58 million shares bid up PA this morning at P0.084.
Tsk, tsk, tsk
January 5, 2011
Despite the PSEi hardly moving, a lot is going on in
this market.
SMC/PCOR/CYBR - I certainly thought these stocks
peaked yesterday already but, after today, I'm no longer quite sure. I'm
not touching these stocks anymore though.
MER/FPH - Could there really be a proxy war once
again? But doesn't MVP have the right of first refusal already? Of
course, anything's for sale at the right price.
DMC/SCC - Breakout or Bull-trap? What's cooking
anyway?
FDC/FLI - It looks like FDC will be the first 2PO of
2011. Will the stock be jockeyed up to entice buyers at a "low price"?
There weren't enough shares for UBS, the lead underwriter, to buy up FDC
so he bought FLI instead. :-)
LND - "Round 2" perhaps? I wonder what Andrew Tan
will do with this one.
PA - Could this be the start of the "ceiling plays"?
Be careful, PA has got nothing to do with Manila North Harbour Port,
contrary to what some people might think. Pabilisan ng pindot bukas (hehe).
January 4, 2011
Did RSA stocks peak today? If so, where are the funds
shifting? Obviously, some are being allotted to the RSA-MVP proxy war
(part 2) in MER. Some, on the other hand, may be shifting to the
Consunji stocks.
By the way, I've just updated my proprietary
Tsupitero Index. I removed ANI, CPM, CYBR, MRC, NI and SMDC. I added AGI,
LND, PCOR, SLI and SMC. To see how the updated index looks like,
click here.
January 3, 2011
I was foolishly pressuring myself this morning
because I wanted my first trade of the year to make money. As they say,
your first trade of the year will dictate your performance for the rest
of the year. Luckily, I bought SMC at 172.00 and I was able to sell it
at 185.00. Were you able to make money on your first trade of the year?
:-)
What Ramon Ang wants, Ramon Ang gets! I wonder what
he wants from CYBR. Mabuhay si RSA!!! :-)
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