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Miko's Blog for February 2012

Feb 29, 2012 (10:30 p.m.)

Just as expected, EDC, PCOR, MRC and CPG have indeed bottomed-out. Take not though, there is a big difference between "bottoming-out" and "trending up".

All of a sudden, all of the mining issues have begun to move. Could this be because of the high price of Gold, or, could this be in anticipation of a favorable outcome from the revised mining act? Notice though that the JAP stocks has now become very weak. That's because the market does not perceive those stock as mining stocks. They are being perceived as JAP stocks.

By the way, is UBP now a JAP stock? It sure is acting like one. :-)

I wonder what Kingspower is thinking by pushing NRCP all by himself. Trying to emulate JAP perhaps? Does he know something we don't?

Despite Oil dropping a lot last night, the Oil sector jumped big time today. Could this mean that the price of Oil will climb back up?

Feb 27, 2012 (10:00 p.m.)

Did we finally peak at 4997? No place to hide, not even with JAP? Oil and Gatchi looked quite strong today but I expect "lower highs" for both.

First, it was WIN, which was rumored to be doing a jv with the Ayalas. Then, came IRC. Now, it is ARA. For all we know, the Ayalas have absolutely no plans of partnering with anyone.

Both BPI and UBP denied rumors that BPI is going to buy into UBP. Technically, 140.00 may have been a medium-term peak for UBP.

Despite the market looking quite gloomy, EDC, PCOR, MRC and CPG should be near their bottoms already right now. I'm not sure if I can say the same thing with SMC though.

Feb 25, 2012 (2:00 p.m.)

Is there still hope for the bulls after 5000? I wonder where the PSEi would be now if we took out AP and AEV. The only thing I see that is still bullish up to now are the JAPanese! :-)

Feb 22, 2012 (10:30 p.m.)

I'm just totally mesmerized by the number of stocks that are going vertical right now. The surprising thing about it is that most of these stocks aren't even basuras and their parabolic rises are getting sustained - OV, OPM, PXP, PSE, CHI, DIZ, VLL and AEV. Here's the dilemma about parabolic spikes - you will see the biggest price increases during this phase in the chart, however, parabolic rises also normally marks the peak of the trend. Look what happened to UBP today.

The tricky part about trading this market right now is that those that are going up are those that have been going up since a few days ago. Those stocks that are low just can't seem to rally. So, should one chase the high-flyers or should one buy the low ones but just be patient about them? Some notable "low stocks" are SMC, PCOR, EDC, LR, BEL and PX.

So, should one sell say OV right now and buy SMC instead? That seems to be the "logical" thing to do but, in the stock market, low and high are relative. What is high now can be much higher tomorrow and what is low now can be much lower tomorrow.

Sorry miners, despite the big rally in Gold, there is currently no Gold play in the PSE right now. Maybe mining waiting for that Executive Order on the Mining Act to be finalized before getting aggressive.

Feb 21, 2012 (11:30 p.m.)

The market is going nuts over Oil. OV was especially exceptional. Congratulations to all believers but, If you are a believer just now, you have to be quick to the draw.

Aside from OV, a number of stocks doing parabolic rises like CHI, PSE, etc. I guess a lot became envious with JAP. While the biggest gains may be seen in these parabolic rises, you have to remember that parabolic spikes are normally seen at the very end of the trend.

PNB trying to trend up still but, with intra-invest, who seem to be the insider of the stock, selling, I can't understand why there are still people buying it.

One particular stock that stood above the rest of the market today was PHES. Could PHES now be the "new WIN", just like MA is now the "new LC"?

Feb 19, 2012 (10:00 a.m.)

Had fun with IP last Thursday and Friday. I bought some IP last Thursday and the PSE, all of a sudden, suspended it just before 3:00 p.m. It closed at P1.44. For some strange reason though, people were still able to post orders, although they couldn't get done because the stock was suspended. Naughty players in the market posted exaggerated bids and, by 3:30 p.m., there were 36 million buyers at P1.89. Obviously, the buyers were not real but, still, some naive people went for it. Come Friday, from 1.44, the stock opened at 1.65. Obviously, the stock wouldn't open at 1.65 if not for the exaggerated bids at 1.89 the previous day. Thus, what else is there to do? I sold all my IP at the opening. I think I have to thank the PSE for this comedy trade of mine.

The Oil sector was obviously in vogue today with OV jumping by almost 20%. I don't think I still remember the last time OV behaved this way. I knew OV would go higher but, not in my wildest dreams did I expect 0.039 by the close. Congratulations to all those who followed my newsletter and bought OV the last couple of days. At these levels though, I wouldn't recommend buying it anymore.

Another very strong stock today was GMA7. Obviously, the MVP bid is still alive despite all the denials by GMA7. The thing is, at current levels, GMA7 (plus GMAP) is already worth almost P41 billion. Would MVP bid higher than P41 billion? Although MVP has a reputation of giving very generous bids in the past, after what happened to DGTL, I'm a bit wary of how he will bid for this one.

Fearless forecast - Gold 1850 coming!

Feb 16, 2012 (10:30 p.m.)

I guess it's appropriate to say that with the JAP stocks, "the faster they climb, the harder they fall". We all knew it was unsustainable but, of course, pinpointing the exact peak was almost impossible to know. Obviously, peaks have been established. The only question left is, are they long-term peaks or are they simply short-term peaks?

I'm quite certain a lot of people got burned in JAP in the last two days. The important thing is, even if you got hit, you were able to preserve most of the profits. If you bought at the highs and got stuck, you have quite a dilemma right now. Do you cut, hold or just buy some more? Cutting is probably the most conservative thing to do. Holding would be a bit of a gamble. Buying some more is oftentimes suicidal but who knows?

Feb 14, 2012 (7:00 a.m.)

I think I made a typo in my last entry in my blog. It should have written buy Lolo and buy JAP and don't sell anything (haha).

Unbelievable behavior on almost all the JAP stocks. They are doing parabolic spikes across the board. Congratulations to all the believers of JAP. Couldn't get myself to buy any of these JAP stocks anymore but I'm just comfortably holding to what I still have. By the way, isn't GEO no longer a JAP stock?

Macquarie subscribes 150 million shares in NI? What the hell is he thinking? Well, if Macquarie is willing to invest 150 million shares in NI, he must be seeing something bullish about the company that we don't.

Lolo stocks, LC and MA, continued to rocket higher as well today but, notice that value turnover of LC is now less than the value turnover of MA. MA is now the main play and LC is now the sidekick.

It would be interesting to see how AAI trades this morning after the company issued more than 9 billion shares at par in preparation for the acquisition of Sureste, the company that will enter into its casino business. The stock is bullish because it will now be a potential "AGI" but its bearish because of the dilution. So, which has more weight?

I'm still wary of the whole market but I'm certainly not discounting PSEi 5000.

Feb 12, 2012 (1:00 a.m.)

Thanks to JAP, I've finally recouped my losses last year. I think the average portfolio should have made 10% already this year, more if most of your positions were in JAP stocks.

With almost all JAP stocks now trading at extremely overbought conditions and Lolo stocks seemingly have bottomed out, could it be time to sell JAP and buy Lolo? Maybe but, at P70B market cap and with the way it has behaved recently, I'm not touching LC at all. MA though may be the new baby of Lolo especially if rumors of MVP buy-in is true.

As with the rest of the market, Repent! The End is Near!

Feb 9, 2012 (10:30 p.m.)

In the last couple of days, when the market dropped a lot, I hardly felt it as only the big caps were dropping. Today, I definitely felt it....Repent! The End is Near!

Mining, in particular, were hard hit today. The culprit - TEV.

But how come the JAP stocks are unaffected by this? That's because all the weak hands have sold way too early already. Unless some of the strong hands begin to sell, these stocks will simply not drop. Of course, the party can't last forever. Sold half of my JAP today just to be on the safe side.

Is LC dead? I think so but, just like a lizard which you cut in half, its tail may still move every once in a while. In Lolo, the only one that may still have a chance is MA. That seems appropriate as market cap is merely a fourth of LC.

Feb 8, 2012 (10:30 p.m.)

Just when I placed a heart on JAP, he suddenly becomes quiet in the market. It's ok JAP, even if you give me the silent treatment, lab pa din kita ngayon. :-)

While JAP turns quiet, lots of playground in the market. With some blues starting to stall, the market has now turned to the 3rd line sector to get their returns. All of sudden, a lot of rumors going around of backdoor plays. Some of them may be true but, I bet, most of them are just going with the flow.

Despite the market trading at all-time highs, it puzzles me that some stocks continue to be weak and are still at their lows - EDC, FGEN, PCOR and SMC. There are also some stocks that seemed to have broken below their support like LR and BEL. Other underperformers recently are MPI, AGI, MEG, LC and PX.  There should be opportunities in some of these stocks but tough to say exactly when to come in as prices might still continue to drop.

Feb 7, 2012 (11:30 p.m.)

Mr. Jerry Angping aka JAP

Feb 3, 2012 (4:00 p.m.)

There will be no updates on my website this weekend because I will be sending my notebook to the shop for repairs. My next update will be on Feb 13, 2012. My blog though will be updated on Monday night. Have a nice weekend Tsupiteros!

Feb 1, 2012 (11:45 p.m.)

The above table shows most of the mining stocks in the PSE as well as their corresponding market capitalizations. It is arranged from the most expensive down to the cheapest. PX is the most expensive and rightly so. Some of these stocks have earnings such as AT, NIKL and ORE while the rest have little or no earnings. Why then would a stock like LC, which has no earnings, be valued by the market at P75B? The answer is, the market is valuing the company based on its expected future earnings. I just had a thought this morning about JAP. I think he wants to do what Lolo has done to LC - P75B market cap!

Just in the news, Facebook will be filing its IPO this week. Analysts are hoping to value the company at $100B. Last year, the company earned just a mere $1B, thus, at $100B market cap, that's 100x 2011 earnings. To put things into perspective, PLDT has a market cap of just $13B and also earned $1B last year. For PLDT to be valued at P100B, PLDT would have to climb all the way to P21,000 per share. So, will you buy Facebook or PLDT? Of course, people will buy Facebook! That's the stock market for you. :-)