Miko's Blog for
Feb 29, 2012 (10:30 p.m.)
Just as expected, EDC, PCOR, MRC and
CPG have indeed bottomed-out. Take not though, there is a big difference
between "bottoming-out" and "trending up".
All of a sudden, all of the mining
issues have begun to move. Could this be because of the high price of
Gold, or, could this be in anticipation of a favorable outcome from the
revised mining act? Notice though that the JAP stocks has now become
very weak. That's because the market does not perceive those stock as
mining stocks. They are being perceived as JAP stocks.
By the way, is UBP now a JAP stock?
It sure is acting like one. :-)
I wonder what Kingspower is thinking
by pushing NRCP all by himself. Trying to emulate JAP perhaps? Does he
know something we don't?
Despite Oil dropping a lot last
night, the Oil sector jumped big time today. Could this mean that the
price of Oil will climb back up?
Feb 27, 2012 (10:00 p.m.)
Did we finally peak at 4997? No place
to hide, not even with JAP? Oil and Gatchi looked quite strong today but
I expect "lower highs" for both.
First, it was WIN, which was rumored
to be doing a jv with the Ayalas. Then, came IRC. Now, it is ARA. For
all we know, the Ayalas have absolutely no plans of partnering with
Both BPI and UBP denied rumors that
BPI is going to buy into UBP. Technically, 140.00 may have been a
medium-term peak for UBP.
Despite the market looking quite
gloomy, EDC, PCOR, MRC and CPG should be near their bottoms already
right now. I'm not sure if I can say the same thing with SMC though.
Feb 25, 2012 (2:00 p.m.)
Is there still hope for the bulls
after 5000? I wonder where the PSEi would be now if we took out AP and
AEV. The only thing I see that is still bullish up to now are the
Feb 22, 2012 (10:30 p.m.)
I'm just totally mesmerized by the
number of stocks that are going vertical right now. The surprising thing
about it is that most of these stocks aren't even basuras and their
parabolic rises are getting sustained - OV, OPM, PXP, PSE, CHI, DIZ, VLL
and AEV. Here's the dilemma about parabolic spikes - you will see the
biggest price increases during this phase in the chart, however,
parabolic rises also normally marks the peak of the trend. Look what
happened to UBP today.
The tricky part about trading this
market right now is that those that are going up are those that have
been going up since a few days ago. Those stocks that are low just can't
seem to rally. So, should one chase the high-flyers or should one buy
the low ones but just be patient about them? Some notable "low stocks"
are SMC, PCOR, EDC, LR, BEL and PX.
So, should one sell say OV right now
and buy SMC instead? That seems to be the "logical" thing to do but, in
the stock market, low and high are relative. What is high now can be
much higher tomorrow and what is low now can be much lower tomorrow.
Sorry miners, despite the big rally
in Gold, there is currently no Gold play in the PSE right now. Maybe
mining waiting for that Executive Order on the Mining Act to be
finalized before getting aggressive.
Feb 21, 2012 (11:30 p.m.)
The market is going nuts over Oil. OV
was especially exceptional. Congratulations to all believers but, If you
are a believer just now, you have to be quick to the draw.
Aside from OV, a number of stocks
doing parabolic rises like CHI, PSE, etc. I guess a lot became envious
with JAP. While the biggest gains may be seen in these parabolic rises,
you have to remember that parabolic spikes are normally seen at the very
end of the trend.
PNB trying to trend up still but,
with intra-invest, who seem to be the insider of the stock, selling, I
can't understand why there are still people buying it.
One particular stock that stood above
the rest of the market today was PHES. Could PHES now be the "new WIN",
just like MA is now the "new LC"?
Feb 19, 2012 (10:00 a.m.)
Had fun with IP last Thursday and
Friday. I bought some IP last Thursday and the PSE, all of a sudden,
suspended it just before 3:00 p.m. It closed at P1.44. For some strange
reason though, people were still able to post orders, although they
couldn't get done because the stock was suspended. Naughty players in
the market posted exaggerated bids and, by 3:30 p.m., there were 36
million buyers at P1.89. Obviously, the buyers were not real but, still,
some naive people went for it. Come Friday, from 1.44, the stock opened
at 1.65. Obviously, the stock wouldn't open at 1.65 if not for the
exaggerated bids at 1.89 the previous day. Thus, what else is there to
do? I sold all my IP at the opening. I think I have to thank the PSE for
this comedy trade of mine.
The Oil sector was obviously in vogue
today with OV jumping by almost 20%. I don't think I still remember the
last time OV behaved this way. I knew OV would go higher but, not in my
wildest dreams did I expect 0.039 by the close. Congratulations to all
those who followed my newsletter and bought OV the last couple of days.
At these levels though, I wouldn't recommend buying it anymore.
Another very strong stock today was
GMA7. Obviously, the MVP bid is still alive despite all the denials by
GMA7. The thing is, at current levels, GMA7 (plus GMAP) is already worth
almost P41 billion. Would MVP bid higher than P41 billion? Although MVP
has a reputation of giving very generous bids in the past, after what
happened to DGTL, I'm a bit wary of how he will bid for this one.
Fearless forecast - Gold 1850 coming!
Feb 16, 2012 (10:30 p.m.)
I guess it's appropriate to say that
with the JAP stocks, "the faster they climb, the harder they fall". We
all knew it was unsustainable but, of course, pinpointing the exact peak
was almost impossible to know. Obviously, peaks have been established.
The only question left is, are they long-term peaks or are they simply
I'm quite certain a lot of people got
burned in JAP in the last two days. The important thing is, even if you
got hit, you were able to preserve most of the profits. If you bought at
the highs and got stuck, you have quite a dilemma right now. Do you cut,
hold or just buy some more? Cutting is probably the most conservative
thing to do. Holding would be a bit of a gamble. Buying some more is
oftentimes suicidal but who knows?
Feb 14, 2012 (7:00 a.m.)
I think I made a typo in my last
entry in my blog. It should have written buy Lolo and buy JAP and don't
sell anything (haha).
Unbelievable behavior on almost all
the JAP stocks. They are doing parabolic spikes across the board.
Congratulations to all the believers of JAP. Couldn't get myself to buy
any of these JAP stocks anymore but I'm just comfortably holding to what
I still have. By the way, isn't GEO no longer a JAP stock?
Macquarie subscribes 150 million
shares in NI? What the hell is he thinking? Well, if Macquarie is
willing to invest 150 million shares in NI, he must be seeing something
bullish about the company that we don't.
Lolo stocks, LC and MA, continued to
rocket higher as well today but, notice that value turnover of LC is now
less than the value turnover of MA. MA is now the main play and LC is
now the sidekick.
It would be interesting to see how
AAI trades this morning after the company issued more than 9 billion
shares at par in preparation for the acquisition of Sureste, the company
that will enter into its casino business. The stock is bullish because
it will now be a potential "AGI" but its bearish because of the
dilution. So, which has more weight?
I'm still wary of the whole market
but I'm certainly not discounting PSEi 5000.
Feb 12, 2012 (1:00 a.m.)
Thanks to JAP, I've finally recouped
my losses last year. I think the average portfolio should have made 10%
already this year, more if most of your positions were in JAP stocks.
With almost all JAP stocks now
trading at extremely overbought conditions and Lolo stocks seemingly
have bottomed out, could it be time to sell JAP and buy Lolo? Maybe but,
at P70B market cap and with the way it has behaved recently, I'm not
touching LC at all. MA though may be the new baby of Lolo especially if
rumors of MVP buy-in is true.
As with the rest of the market,
Repent! The End is Near!
Feb 9, 2012 (10:30 p.m.)
In the last couple of days, when the
market dropped a lot, I hardly felt it as only the big caps were
dropping. Today, I definitely felt it....Repent! The End is Near!
Mining, in particular, were hard hit
today. The culprit - TEV.
But how come the JAP stocks are
unaffected by this? That's because all the weak hands have sold way too
early already. Unless some of the strong hands begin to sell, these
stocks will simply not drop. Of course, the party can't last forever.
Sold half of my JAP today just to be on the safe side.
Is LC dead? I think so but, just like
a lizard which you cut in half, its tail may still move every once in a
while. In Lolo, the only one that may still have a chance is MA. That
seems appropriate as market cap is merely a fourth of LC.
Feb 8, 2012 (10:30 p.m.)
Just when I placed a heart on JAP, he
suddenly becomes quiet in the market. It's ok JAP, even if you give me
the silent treatment, lab pa din kita ngayon. :-)
While JAP turns quiet, lots of
playground in the market. With some blues starting to stall, the market
has now turned to the 3rd line sector to get their returns. All of
sudden, a lot of rumors going around of backdoor plays. Some of them may
be true but, I bet, most of them are just going with the flow.
Despite the market trading at
all-time highs, it puzzles me that some stocks continue to be weak and
are still at their lows - EDC, FGEN, PCOR and SMC. There are also some
stocks that seemed to have broken below their support like LR and BEL.
Other underperformers recently are MPI, AGI, MEG, LC and PX. There
should be opportunities in some of these stocks but tough to say exactly
when to come in as prices might still continue to drop.
Feb 7, 2012 (11:30 p.m.)
Mr. Jerry Angping aka JAP
Feb 3, 2012 (4:00 p.m.)
There will be no updates on my
website this weekend because I will be sending my notebook to the shop
for repairs. My next update will be on Feb 13, 2012. My blog though will
be updated on Monday night. Have a nice weekend Tsupiteros!
Feb 1, 2012 (11:45 p.m.)
The above table shows most of the
mining stocks in the PSE as well as their corresponding market
capitalizations. It is arranged from the most expensive down to the
cheapest. PX is the most expensive and rightly so. Some of these stocks
have earnings such as AT, NIKL and ORE while the rest have little or no
earnings. Why then would a stock like LC, which has no earnings, be
valued by the market at P75B? The answer is, the market is valuing the
company based on its expected future earnings. I just had a thought this
morning about JAP. I think he wants to do what Lolo has done to LC -
P75B market cap!
Just in the news, Facebook will be
filing its IPO this week. Analysts are hoping to value the company at
$100B. Last year, the company earned just a mere $1B, thus, at $100B
market cap, that's 100x 2011 earnings. To put things into perspective,
PLDT has a market cap of just $13B and also earned $1B last year. For
PLDT to be valued at P100B, PLDT would have to climb all the way to
P21,000 per share. So, will you buy Facebook or PLDT? Of course, people
will buy Facebook! That's the stock market for you. :-)