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Miko's Blog for Feb 2010

Feb 26, 2010

It has been one hell of a week for me in the markets. Made money in some issues and lost money in others. Like yesterday, instead of buying APC, I decided to buy TA. I obviously made a mistake so I decided to sell my TA and shift everything to APC today. The decision proved to be correct but the shifting of the portfolio becomes a bit costly if you cannot commit yourself to your position. What can I do? The Dow is such an iffy market right now. Our very own PSEi though looks very, very resilient.

Power is still in play with APC leading the way. No, AP, EDC  and FGEN are not the ones that you'd like to watch out for. If you'll notice, it is the small caps that have a play in power that are moving. Which stocks? Just watch the ticker. :-)

JAP is back in Market Mirror. Welcome back Jap!

Feb 25, 2010

I just learned this morning that JAP quit posting in Market Mirror two days ago. JAP, now you know why I don't maintain a guestbook here in my website (haha). Although I myself am guilty of "bashing" JAP at times. "Alaska" ko lang naman yan. The truth is, of all the Jockeys in the PSE, JAP is the one I admire the most. He is so smooth that you will never know when he has started selling you his shares already, unlike some Jockeys when they start selling, bastusan na. Look at IP. Well, of course people, at some point, the Jockey will have to get out as well. Hindi naman puede bili na lang ng bili. It is also but natural that the Jockey will never say when he is going to get out. Syempre, pano sya lalabas? But, if I remember correctly, he did warn everyone with LIHC at around 10.00 or 11.00 per share. I admire him for that. He has also given a buy recommendation on several issues a day before he starts to accumulate them like what happened to ORE, which he started recommending near 1.00, if I'm not mistaken. From my personal experience, I've made more money in JAP stocks that any other stocks in the market eversince the time of GEO. My advise to people following his stocks or any other stock, learn how to trade. Follow the Jockey on the way up but be sure you don't get caught holding the bag on the way down. I sure hope JAP will write again but, if he doesn't , I certainly hope that he would be the same JAP as before when it comes to the board. I can no longer imagine the PSE without JAP.

As to the markets, it is now time for Power Play!

Feb 24, 2010

I went "all-in" in the market today. I believe the markets are merely in a correction phase at the moment but will continue to trend up in the next few days. It's now or never. Markets should bottom-out either today or tomorrow. If Dow goes up tonight, I'm treating everybody to Shangri-La ..... not! hahaha

Feb 23, 2010

I had a disaster of a day today. I just couldn't do anything right. I had about three one fluc losses in my trading today. What day is it today anyway? Aha, it's Tuesday once again!

Yesterday, I recommended NI in my newsletter, not knowing that there was actually a disclosure about one of its subsidiaries acquiring an MPSA. Unfortunately, the stock tried to breakout above its resistance at 4.10 but failed once again. Try your luck again tomorrow guys!

DFNN - I told you so...

Something weird is going on with the Dollar. It's continuing to climb despite the entire commodity sector going higher. I'm guessing that, with the problems in Europe, some funds may be shifting from the Euro back to the Dollar. I wonder who's calling the market right - those who are buying the Dollar or those who are buying commodities?

Feb 22, 2010

After that scare in the Futures market Monday morning, the Dow ended up going up after all. I bet a lot of people who sold last Friday are regretting their move right now and are dying to get back in into the market. The move by the FED last Friday was merely symbolic as no one really borrows from the FED's discount window unless they want to be branded as being in trouble, thus, the easy monetary policy resumes, for now. With the way the US markets and Europe have been going higher in the last few days, Asia has got a lot of catching up to do.

Foreign funds are still net buyers in our market. They were net buyers last Friday and they were still net buyers today. So far, they have been calling it right. Let's see.

Thank God, all of the four stocks, which I bought last Friday went up today. You may claim your free french fries in Jollibee Tawi-Tawi branch. :-)

Feb 19, 2010

The markets are in a semi-panic right now because the FED suddenly raised its discount rate by 25 basis points. Here's the dilemma of the market right now: Although raising of interest rates may be bearish to the markets because liquidity, which has drove these markets to new highs in the last 11 months, may be sucked once again but, on the other hand, the raising of interest rates is also a sign that the economy is improving. So, is this bearish or bullish?

My bet is, it's an opportunity to buy as I bought heavy into the market today. If Dow drops by 200 points tonight, a lot will be waiting to buy on Monday. If the Dow drops by 100 points tonight, the move would have been discounted by the markets already by today. If the Dow is unchanged or goes up tonight, I would treat everyone to Jollibee on Monday!!

Feb 18, 2010

I sold both my "top loser" and "top gainer" yesterday with some coffee money. I sold my EG at the ceiling price (yum, yum) and I sold my IP with a two fluc gain (I bought yesterday at the close and sold everything at 2.20, whew! That was close).

EG may be trying to do an IMI. The problem is, the whole market already knows about the scam after what happened to IMI. Take note, as of Sept 2009, book value of EG is just a mere P3.94/share and at P112.00/share, its P/E ratio is a whopping 82x. I think the insiders of EG may have made a mistake in this one. They thought a lot will buy at P112.00 today. They ought to have sold yesterday when there were a lot of buyers. The PSE should definitely do something about these listing by introduction shenanigans so that the public do not get victimized.

There's currently a lot of bad language being written in one of the local forums because a "guru" apparently hyped up IPVG. While I wouldn't know if that "guru" did it on purpose so that he could sell, those who got caught in this one have no one else to blame but yourselves. Remember, your only real enemy in trading is actually yourself.

Finally, the market has entered a correction phase.

Feb 17, 2010

The foreign funds are either brilliant or are totally out of sync with reality as they bought another P450 million today. Could this be for real? As expected though, the 3rd line sector peaked yesterday and have continued to correct today. Usually, when the Dow is up big time and I don't have any positions, I panic. Today, I really didn't care.

I'm being conservative right now with the market being very high already. I bought very small positions in the  top loser of the day as well as in the top gainer of the day. Talk about hedging! hahaha

As of today, most people should have broken-even on their portfolio already by now for the year. If you haven't, you are under-performing. Saludo ako to those who are now up by 10% or more on their portfolios year to date.

My two new recommendations, which I wrote in my newsletter yesterday, flew again today. I guess in this kind of market, everyone becomes a genius! :-)

By the way, here's my fearless forecast for the elections:

If VLL breaks above 2.16, Manny Villar will win!

Feb 16, 2010

I sold the last few positions I had in the market today. I don't know if the market have peaked already today but it seems to me like the speculatives were definitely over. The two spectacular moves the last couple of days - IP and LIHC - appears to have peaked today as well.

My other recommendation the other day - TKC Steel - did climb up today but not as much as I expected.

After five straight days of heavy buying, foreign funds appear to have settled down today as they were net buyers by just P45 million.

Feb 15, 2010

I think I made JAP very, very angry (hahaha). I love you JAP! Muah!

Would you believe the PSEi is the strongest market in the world in the last four days? Just in that span of time, foreign funds have bought almost P2 billion worth already. Could they be making the right call? This is the primary reason why our market has been so strong. Any small buying from the fundies can instantly propel our market higher. The thing is, they too can be the ones to pull our market lower. Let's just hope these funds are long-term investors and not Tsupiteros like me. :-)

In my newsletter last Friday, I recommended three stocks. Two of them were EDC and LIHC. One of them hasn't climbed up yet. Let's see if I get three out of three by tomorrow. :-)

Feb 14, 2010

Kung Hei Fat Choi to all Tsupiteros out there!

And Happy Valentines' Day too to everyone, especially to JAP, Chucky, RSA, MVP, Lolo and all market manipulators everywhere! :-)

Feb 12, 2010

I think I caused quite a stir with the entry here on my blog yesterday. I guess some people can't help but be so frustrated with the JAP stocks already by now. Do you remember when JAP announced his "Magnificent 7"? That was when those seven stocks made a high. But don't get me wrong, I think JAP did not see the correction of the whole market coming. Had the conditions been like six months ago, his recommendations would have been a sure hit. If it's any consolation to all those who got stuck with these issues, I think JAP himself is stuck at higher levels. While I may have doubted his recommendations on his "Magnificent 7" because those stocks were trading at their highs during those times, I am inclined to believe him now on his F***ing Five. Why? Simply because they are currently trading at their lows. Sorry Jap, nothing personal, kantsaw lang naman sa'yo. By the way, today, I proved that JAP does indeed read my blog. :-)

I finally broke-even in my portfolio this year. I was down by as much as 5% just a couple of days ago and I was so frustrated because I knew the downtrend was coming yet I kept on trading the market albeit at much smaller positions that before. Today, I was saved by just one stock. Thanks Bong Tan!

Don't you just feel the market became too over-excited in the last couple of days? With the way the Dow has been behaving, did we actually merit a 6% move to the upside? I'm not buying it so I took advantage of today's strong upswing and took profits on almost all my positions.

At last, I've finally found a venue for my upcoming seminar. For those of you who would like to learn Technical Analysis and would like to learn how to trade, I will be conducting a seminar on Mar 13, 20 and 27 from 9:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. at the Valle Verde Country Club. Fee of the seminar is just P5,000.00 per person. I will be giving away a free one month subscription to my newsletter and a free one month subscription to the Metastock data updates. Those who would be interested to join this seminar can just email me at miko@tsupitero.com.

Feb 11, 2010

JAP is at it again and is recommending his stocks (ANI, LIHC, ORE, NI and TUNA). He named these stocks as the "Fighting Five". A friend of mine gave a sarcastic remark about this to me today by saying those five issues are actually the F***ing Five!!!

Can someone please explain to me how Chucky is making money with ABA?

Feb 10, 2010

Finally, we've hit rock bottom already ... maybe, I think (haha).

Chucky is putting on a real show in ABA right now. Either he is trying attract buyers at 0.90 or he is trying to attract sellers at 1.00. I wonder who he is trying to catch.

I wonder why JAP is so busy with ORE nowadays and is no longer supporting his other issues aggressively.

Congratulations to all those who bought MPI in the last couple of days! I commend you for having the guts to catch falling knives. :-)

Feb 9, 2010

Yawn!

Feb 8, 2010

A friend of mine told me this morning,

"Reaching the Summit is Optional but Descending is Mandatory"

Feb 5, 2010

After not recommending any issues in the last 1 week, I finally had the guts to recommended 3 stocks in my newsletter yesterday, CPM, LIHC and IMI. I gave a "buy as low as possible" recommendation to these issues. Congratulations to all those who made money in these stocks!

My proprietary Tsupitero Index is currently down by 13.68% ytd. Thus, for Tsupiteros trading the market, if you are losing only less than this, you are already doing a good job. As for those who are trading the blue chips, if you are down by less than 6.45% ytd, which is what the PSEi is doing right now, you are already doing a good job. For those who are still up for the year, either you're real name is Clark Kent, or, you made a very good decision of taking an early summer vacation in Boracay.

Mabuhay ang mga duwag!!!

Feb 4, 2010

The market can be so amusing at times.

People are in a panic buying mode in ORE right now when prices have already gone up by 110% from its recent lows at 0.75 just four days ago.

On the other hand, people are in a panic selling mode in CPM, which has already gone down 40% from its recent high of 6.10 just 12 days ago, and, LIHC, which has already gone down  by 36% from its recent high of 8.90 just 14 days ago.

Hmmm....shouldn't it be the other way around? I normally follow the trend but, in these extreme cases, I think being a contrarian is the more appropriate strategy.

Feb 3, 2010

A friend of mine said to me yesterday that MVP has created a fake bull market last year. This year, he will drag the market down....I would have to agree.

One by one, stocks are now falling like dead flies. Yesterday, it was MPI. Today, it was NI. Be very scared of those that have yet to collapse and are appearing strong. They will be next.

When the market starts to trend down, it's the time when I start to re-educate myself about trading and of the markets. I bought a new book, "Super Trader" by Van K. Tharp. At least I have something to do in the morning already. :-)

Feb 2, 2010

I just learned this morning that a friend of mine, who is a fellow trader in the local stock market, Mr. Oyie Tan, just passed away yesterday. My deepest condolences to his family and I will pray that his soul rest in peace.

I would have wanted to say condolences too to the holders of MPI today but it seems like a bad joke.

This market will continue to drop as long as people think that this is a "buy the dips". Imagine, the Dow hasn't even broken below 10k yet. Yoikes!

Feb 1, 2010

I just came back home from Boracay last night. After what the market did today, I think I should have just stayed there.

I did one cardinal mistake last Thursday - I bought some positions last Thursday despite knowing that I would be out of town on Friday. I couldn't resist it. The market looked very ripe for a rebound already then. However, after seeing what the Dow did last Thursday night, I decided to just call it quits and sell all my positions the following day. I ended up losing coffee money in the portfolio. It's a good thing one of my positions was LIB. 

I wasn't very relaxed last Friday despite me being in Boracay already. No, I wasn't stressed about my positions because I only had a few. What was stressing me the whole morning was one of my clients, who had incurred a serious deficit in his account to the tune of P2.5 million. He hasn't funded it or sold what he bought since last December. HDI had given him until last Friday to fund his account or the Company would be forced to sell his positions. HDI sold his positions last Friday at a tremendous loss for the client. This is what you call a Margin Call and this is probably part of the reason why the entire market is now very, very weak.