Miko's Blog for
Dec 31, 2011 (9:00 a.m.)
My Year-End Report
glad this year is over. To
say that 2011 was a very difficult year for trading is an
under-statement. For a trend-follower like me, the worst market
condition to trade in was a sideways market. It's much, much easier to
trade a bear-market because you don't get tempted to buy.
Year-to-date ROI of
PSEi - 4%
Year-to-date ROI of
Tsupitero Index - 9%
Gainers (illiquid stocks):
1. PORT - 2,890.29%
2. AAA - 1,033.33%
3. SMP - 912.99%
4. AGP - 582.50%
5. CPG - 496.92%
Top Losers (illiquid stocks):
1. ATNB - (68.17%)
2. PO - (53.64%)
3. MJC - (52.00%)
4. MEGW2 - (51.41%)
5. MEGW1 - (48.94%)
Top Gainers (liquid stocks):
1. LCB - 293.41%
2. ZHI - 288.60%
3. LC - 236.96%
4. MA - 160.87%
5. MAB - 156.52%
Top Losers (liquid stocks):
1. MRC - (60.56%)
2. SLI - (58.38%)
3. CEB - (42.86%)
4. HLCM - (39.35%)
5. PCOR - (33.05%)
As for my own
trading, this year was one of my worst performances ever. My big fund
lost 10% this year but, had it not been for Lolo, I probably would have
lost more than 20%. Guess where I lost the most this year? You'll be
surprised to know that I lost the most in AP. That's due to the whipsaws
while AP was moving sideways. My small fund was up by a mere 7%. The
gains here would not have been possible if not for PXP and IP. Where did
my small fund lost the most this year? JAP's AGP as I tried to buy it on
the dips while it dropped from 50.00.
My year to date
2008 - (27%)
2009 - 83%
2010 - 53%
2011 - (10%)
For funds that have
at least P20 million under management, the best that you could have done
was to have been able to position in one of the Lolo stocks early on.
Had you been stuck with the blues, you would have ended up just
break-even for the year. For those whose funds are small say, P2 million
or less, it would have been much, much easier as there were quite a
number of small caps that went to the roof this year.
probably did a lot better than Tsupiteros, assuming the Position-traders
stuck to their game plan and continued to hold on to their positions
during the downswings. As for the Tsupiteros, it was a very frustrating
search for the next big thing, which almost always ended up being a
loser. Normally, two to three stocks, which would go to the roof would
already make your total returns for the whole year. This year, it was
very frustrating because you couldn't buy and hold. If you buy and hold,
8 times out of 10, you would have made a wrong decision, thus, I always
end up taking small profits. The problem is, to make money by taking
small profits, you need to have a very high batting average. My success
rate this year was merely 40%, which means I only made money on 40% of
my trades. I guess, unless you get really lucky or you are a very
exceptional trader, the only way to make money really is in a bull
market. In a sideways market, one ought to cut position-sizes and just
play small because the odds would still be against you. This year,
traders lost money but brokers made a lot.
I'm not sure if this
one year consolidation that we are in is a toppish pattern or is a
continuation pattern. All we know is that this consolidation will lead
to a very big move either up or down. We don't even know when the
markets will begin to trend. Thus, next year is going to be a very, very
challenging year once again. Hopefully though, these whipsaws will
eventually lead to a bull market, otherwise, there will be no chance to
recover the small losses. How do you plan for a market condition such as
this: Assume that the sideways market will continue but be ready for the
market to either trend up or trend down soon? I guess stock picking is
essential so that even if the whole market drops, you wouldn't get hurt
a lot if you pick the right horse. Other than that, you just got to get
Kung Hei Fat Choy
Dec 28, 2011 (10:30 p.m.)
guess this December just sums up what happened to the market in the rest
of the year. I bet a lot of people, myself included, has become quite
disappointed in the last two days, given that there doesn't seem to be
window-dressing this year once again. I'm sure there will still be some
selected issues that will head to the roof by tomorrow but trying to
find them is like trying to find a needle in a haystack. All those
people who are planning to sell by tomorrow should be able to get out or
lot of people probably positioned in some blue chip stocks thinking that
they will be window-dressed this year. Who would have known that one
ought to have just bought JAP issues instead.
Dec 26, 2011 (11:30 p.m.)
Despite the denials from Ayala, despite the insider selling from
Westlink (I suppose), WIN bulls just doesn't want to give up. Either
there is really something going on here or the buyers are in for a big
surprise. Personally, I'm scared for the buyers of this one.
are the exceptional ones among the blues but, given how high they are
right now, I think they got quite out of line with what the rest of the
market is doing.
1.70, F. Yap Securities was seen buying heavily but, how come, at 1.60,
he no longer is buying as aggressively? Could he have sold thru other
brokers when he was seemingly buying? Could he be doing the same thing
in MA right now? You have to hand it to Lolo. A master at work!
sneaky market players are using huge cross transactions to attract
buyers into their stock. Be careful Tsupiteros. Not all those cross
transactions have real buyers and sellers.
Aside from some action in some basuras, the rest of the market is in
limbo and are just waiting for window-dressing on Thursday. I'm sure
there will be despite everybody expecting it. The problem is how to
choose the right horse.
Dec 24, 2011 (8:00 a.m.)
Amazing! Despite WIN already denying that they are not in talks with the
Ayalas, the stock continued to trend higher. I would have to give an "A"
to Tower for courage. I don't think I can still get myself to buy that
one at current levels. You can have it boys!
Something happened today that wasn't exactly favorable for the bulls -
some basuras are moving.
Everybody is anticipating window-dressing by Dec 29, which is the last
trading day of the year. Let's just hope it will be as spectacular as
some people would think.
Feliz Navidad Tsupiteros!!!
Dec 23, 2011 (6:00 a.m.)
All Gatchalian stocks are moving strongly, with WIN and PHES even doing
parabolic spikes. Obviously, based on their behavior, the T+3 will be
lifted already soon, however, I expect sell on news behavior once the
news is out. Actually, WIN and PHES already looks like a "sell" right
now. WIN may no longer be a WINner. Thanks for the tsups Gatchi!!!
Could LC have bottomed-out already? I think the more important question
is, will Lolo let "Bensaldo" make money?
Market liquidity now starting to dry up. This is a normal market
phenomena everytime we reach this time of the year. Expect lackluster
trading up to maybe the last 2 to 3 days of the year.
Dec 21, 2011 (11:45 p.m.)
Obviously, window-dressing season has already begun with no other than
index heavyweight, PLDT, leading the way. The thing is, despite the
run-up of the market in the last four days, I hardly felt it. I wonder
what the PSEi would be now if TEL was still trading at 2450.00.
think properties have bottomed out. Notice the big cross transactions in
SMDC, ELI and FLI yesterday. Notice the big rally in MEG and SMPH.
is definitely a WINner! Parabolic spike in the works. I'm not touching
that one anymore though.
Could this be it for CHIPS?!
somebody please explain to me why there are a lot of people buying DGTL
Dec 20, 2011 (12:00 a.m.)
Impeccable timing by JAP. Just when nothing is moving, he starts pushing
and becomes the star of the show.
Lolo, on the other hand, is either in a coma or is in life support. I'm
not sure if he will survive the operation. He may die but, if the
doctors do a good job, then, he will have renewed vigor and will have a
can't understand PNB. It jumps everytime there is some headline news
about the merger but every knows that there will be a merger already,
right? So, what's new?
Among the four IPOs in the last few weeks - PGOLD, CHIPS, H2O and TSI -
only PGOLD and CHIPS are still above their IPO prices up to now. That
means, only the two stocks are probably worth looking at. However, I
don't think PGOLD is still attractive anymore at these levels so that
only leaves one IPO stock left worth looking at. :-)
Dec 15, 2011 (11:30 p.m.)
have to say, I am quite impressed by how resilient our market is. Watch
TEL, I think that one is about to breakout!
only real strong stock I saw this morning was CYBR. Could that strong
move today be related with AAA?
Gold dropping by more than $80.00 last night, the mighty LC has finally
fallen. Congratulations Mr. Bennett! Some may see Mr. Bennett as being a
very wild trader in the market but, judging by his performance in LC, he
is not haphazard at all and he does know what he is doing.
would also like to congratulate El Kapitan for his successful offering
of TDY. But for those who bought into the offering, now what?
companies are skirting the PSE requirement of having at least 10% free
float by doing private placements. Why do a secondary offering when one
can just create a dummy and sell shares to his dummy? Very sneaky!
Dec 14, 2011 (10:30 p.m.)
Isn't it weird that we have stocks like CEB and MEG, among the big caps,
and, IP and BHI, among the small caps, which are trending down strongly.
Then, we have stocks like the Lopez group and the LR/BEL tandem, which
are trending up strongly. We even had another ceiling today - AAA. It's
like 20% of the market is trending up, 20% is trending down and the rest
are moving sideways. The net effect - PSEi was up by 3 points.
Incidentally, I heard some rumors this morning about AAA being linked
with Ramon Ang. Could that be the reason why it went to the ceiling
Another strong group of stocks today were the Gatchalian stocks. Could
it be true that the PSE has finally lifted their punishment of being T+0
PSEi and LC have something in common - they are both trading in a very,
very narrow range and are about to explode. The question is, which
direction will they be heading?
Dec 13, 2011 (11:30 p.m.)
goes up, PSE goes down. Dow goes down, PSE goes up. Dow up 100pts as of
this writing, PSE will drop tomorrow? ... It is when Dow goes up and PSE
goes up as well that Christmas rally begins.
Everyone getting dizzy with LC already but I needed to stand up in
attention today after seeing a pole and a flag.
Trick question: If EDC and FGEN goes up, ___ goes up next.
is a WINner!
Dec 12, 2011 (9:30 p.m.)
whole market is still in "the calm before the storm"! The question is,
will the storm blow to the north or to the south. In my 16 years of
trading the PSE, I don't think I have ever experienced the market crash
in December. The worst thing that normally happens is a sideways market.
Of course, there could always be a first time.
you buy a company for P76 billion in cash right now but is hardly making
money and will only be making money 3 to 5 years down the road? Or,
would you rather buy a company for P108 billion in cash right now but is
already making P4 billion a year? Of course, almost everyone will choose
the latter. In the stock market though, realities such as these don't
matter and what actually matters more is the P.R. and Marketing. :-)
Property issues were very weak today as highlighted by MEG. Could this
be because of the accounting changes that will take effect on Jan 1? On
the other hand, notice that almost all the Gatchalian stocks were strong
today. Could T+3 just be around the corner?
Dec 8, 2011 (10:00 p.m.)
happy to have sold all my LC near the highs for a quick 5% gain. Is the
play over? One indicator that made kind of think whether to hold it or
not is the value turnover - P1B. Could everyone been caught looking at
Lopez show has begun!
players, on the other hand, has begun shifting from Lolo to gaming
World markets now just one day away from the EU Summit. This could be
the trigger for the PSE to move in a very big way. Question is, which
direction will it move? I'm betting up. :-)
Dec 7, 2011 (4:00 p.m.)
bought back all my LC today. Lolo for President!!! :-)
stockholders' meeting will be on Friday, yet, prices are very weak. Bad
news coming up in the meeting perhaps? tsk, tsk, tsk
one interested in CHIPS? I guess it's just me and Chucky then. Let's go
Chucky! I'm a believer! :-)
Something is cooking with RLT. Anyone noticed the huge cross
transactions in the last few days?
to retest all-time high?
Dec 6, 2011 (10:30 p.m.)
as I suspected, a disclosure in LC was forthcoming and, just as I
expected, it sold on the news. The question now is, is this an
opportunity to buy the stock on the dip, or, could there be a much
bigger drop? Coming from an extremely optimistic stage, I would tend to
think that there will be a much bigger drop, however, with Lolo, one can
just never be too sure.
While LC was suspended, the market started bidding up MA and ZHI
instead. The thing is, aside from being Lolo stocks as well, these two
companies won't really benefit from the Far Southeast Project, if I'm
not mistaken. Did I see Lolo sell both MA and ZHI this morning?
Without Lolo, this market is just dead. Thank you Lolo!
Dec 5, 2011 (9:00 p.m.)
continued to power higher today with the B shares even registering a new
52-week high. I'm not too keen on buying LC anymore at this point.
Technically, it is quite overbought already. Fundamentally, it is now
very expensive. Market cap of LC is now a whopping P79 billion. To
justify this valuation, the company should be earning at least P3
billion this year. As a basis for comparison, PX, which is making P4
billion a year, currently has a market cap of P112 billion. I don't know
but I think prices have gone way ahead of its fundamentals already at
this point. But, of course, if Lolo still wants to push it, no amount of
fundamentals or technicals reasoning can stop the freight train. I sold
my last batch of LC today. Thank you for the memories Lolo!
should be voted as jockey of the year! :-)
Dec 3, 2011 (11:00 a.m.)
would tend to wonder, why the hell is Lolo buying so much shares at
these prices? Of course, I'm not complaining but why? Could it be that
he already has a buyer at a much higher level? I bet everyone is guilty
of selling too early yesterday. I myself am guilty of that too but left
some shares just in case this one goes to where no man has ever gone
Aside from LC, is there anything else to talk about in this market?
CHIPS Ahoy! Chucky! Chucky! Chucky! :-)
Dec 2, 2011 (1:00 a.m.)
Finally! The PSEi has rallied. The market has got a lot of catching up
to do if we compare it with what other regional markets have done in the
last three days. The thing is, our market may not do that because we
hardly dropped as well compared with other bourses in the last couple of
attended the Christmas party of
evening. I had a fun time chatting with everyone there. Not much people
attended it unlike parties in the past. Could that be a sign that not a
lot of people are interested in the market? Could that indicate that
this market is still headed higher?
Lolo did this morning was just phenomenal. I pity those who were forced
to sell LCB at the lows. If I'm reading the chart correctly, you may no
longer see 1.63 in LCB again.
regards to the MSCI stocks, I bet people are wondering why they are
still acting weak despite already being included in the index as of
today (Thursday). As I said, that's because the market has discounted it
already. I'm not touching any of those MSCI stocks right now.
Could it be that the big banks have formed significant lows in the last
couple of days?
Dec 1, 2011 (5:30 a.m.)
bet a lot of people got quite disappointed with the behavior of the PSEi
Last Tuesday but with this worldwide intervention by the Central Banks,
I'll be damned if we still don't rally today.
market was quite extraordinary last Tuesday due to the re-alignment of
the funds due to the changes in the MSCI index. Most notable was the
shifting of Credit Suisse from BPI and MBT to those stocks that were
recently included in the MSCI - URC, SMC and ICT. Some people might be
wondering though why those MSCI stocks were still down for the day.
That's because the market has discounted it already. If that's the case,
then, BPI and MBT may already be a buy at this point?
Because of this worldwide intervention by Central Banks, a lot of stocks
will probably rebound right now, however, while most stocks will merely
rally because they are oversold, there are still a handful of issues
that will rally because people are really anticipating something bullish
will happen to that company in the future. One stock in particular that
I am looking at is CHIPS. Why CHIPS?
Low Valuation - At P7.60 per share, the stock is merely doing 7.25x its
2012 earnings with a price to book of roughly 1.00 only. The market's
average P/E is currently doing at around 13x and the market's average
price to book ratio is 2.00.
Low Market Cap and Low Float - At P7.60 per share, the stock's market
cap is just a mere P1.38 billion. With 42 million shares being offered
to the public, free float is merely P319 million. But is the free float
still really that big? From what I've been hearing, there were two big
groups that took half of the total offering. That means, the shares
which are really "free", is just 21 million shares or less than P160
Chucky - Some would view him as negative, given his reputation in the
market, however, he is still a known jockey, who can work magic in the
stock if he so wishes to. If rumors are true, then, he is one of the two
big groups who has bought a substantial block in the company in its IPO.
The thing is, is he really just holding 10 million shares? Rumor has it
that he has already bought an additional 9 million shares in the open
market. If this is true, then, Chucky is now holding 19 million shares
or almost half of the total free float. Again, if this is true, then the
real free float is now just 13 million shares or less than P100 million.
I can see only one reason why Chucky is accumulating so much shares. He
is probably going for a board seat. How many shares does one need to get
a board seat? If my math is correct, he needs roughly 23 million shares,
thus, he needs to buy an additional 4 million shares in the open market.
Everybody made money in the IPO - This is one of the very few stocks in
the whole market wherein you won't see anyone say anything negative
about the stock. Why? Because everybody made money in it. At current
levels, those who bought the IPO are still up by 8.5%. Why is this
positive? With the situation of the world market nowadays, almost
everyone wants to make a quick buck, thus, almost everyone who bought
into the IPO may have sold already by now. That's a good thing because,
if almost everyone who wanted to sell has already done so, then, there
may no longer be anyone left who is willing to sell lower.
After ACR last year, I have never really promoted any stock here in my
blog. I do not dare so, not only because of the condition of the whole
market but also because I couldn't find a "sure thing". However, in the
case of CHIPS, I think it's a no-brainer so I'm staking my reputation
here. What's my target? 10x P/E, do the math. As always, disclaimer