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Miko's Blog for
Dec 2009
Dec 31, 2009
After much thought, I decided to stop disclosing my trades already. My
purpose of disclosing my trades is to show people the reality of how
professional traders like me behave in real-time trading. The worst
thing that people can think of about traders like me is that we are like
"superman" and that we have a secret formula for beating everybody in
the markets. The reality is that the holy grail in trading simply does
not exist and everybody makes mistakes every now and then. The real holy
grail of trading is simply this:
1. When you win, you
need to have a big position, but, when you lose, you need to have a
small position; and,
2. When you lose,
lose small, but, when you win, win big.
For
those who have been following my blog and my personal disclosures for
the last few months, you will notice that I have been following these
two rules religiously in my trades. The secret to making money in the
markets isn't in making the right calls. The secret lies in managing
your risk, which includes managing the size of your positions, and in
having the self-discipline of a soldier.
Still, I will continue to post some thoughts I have on the market here
in my blog every now and then so please do continue to read my blog.
Dec 29, 2009
I had to satisfy my need to press (the computer)
today so I day-traded NI and MER for some coffee money. hehe
Talk about an anti-climactic ending to a very
spectacular year in the markets! Next year will certainly not be as
easy.
Happy New Year Tsupiteros!!!
% of portfolio in the market - 0%
% in cash - 100%
Year to date return - 83%
Dec 28, 2009
Yawn!!!
% of portfolio in the market - 0%
% in cash - 100%
Year to date return - 83%
Dec 23, 2009
I did not trade anything today. I'm on a Christmas
break. :-)
Aside from WEB, was there anything else worth looking
at? ISM was hilarious!
Merry Christmas Tsupiteros!
"Hazardous eruption...can happen today or..."
% of portfolio in the market - 0%
% in cash - 100%
Year to date return - 83%
Dec 22, 2009
With FGEN arriving at its ex-rights date today, I
figured, this might be a low-risk trade since everybody who wanted to
sell this stock has already done so and everybody who wanted to sell his
common shares will probably not sell at cost. Did I underestimate the
bears in this one. I realized just now that this is not NiHao. I bought at 10.50 and I ended up selling at 10.00. I
can't understand why some people, who did not buy today, sold at cost.
Why didn't they sell yesterday? If this stock can't go up today, I just can't imagine where this stock
would be come January 22, when the rights shares would start becoming
saleable.
LIHC - the one that got away!
"Scientists raised the alert level on Sunday to one
step below a hazardous eruption in Mayon Volcano, saying one was
possible within days. The only higher level is when a major eruption is
already in progress."
% of portfolio in the market - 0%
% in cash - 100%
Year to date return - 83%
Dec 21, 2009
I was contemplating over the weekend and I was
thinking to myself, why the hell did I even bother buying anything last
Friday? I knew volume would start becoming anemic since most of the big
boys would be out on holiday already. And if volume dries up, how can my
positions go up significantly? If all I'm after for is a dead-cat
bounce, forget it! So, I just dumbly sold all my remaining positions
today with small losses. This time, I'm really done for the year. I
don't think there will be any significant window-dressing this year.
Funds don't need to window-dress because they've already made so much
for the year. From the way I see it, most would just like to liquidate
their positions and secure their gains for the year.
Another issue that I have been thinking about the
last couple of days is FGEN. Do I want to subscribe to the rights or
not? If I were thinking about FGEN alone, I would probably subscribe.
However, since I'm quite worried of the markets this January, I decided
to just forgo this offering and let others gamble on it. Had this
offering happened a few months ago, I would probably have subscribed.
The headlines today is, "Phivolcs says Mayon big
blast within days".
% of portfolio in the market - 0%
% in cash - 100%
Year to date return - 83%
Dec 18, 2009
I day-traded NI today and was able to make a measly
two flucs (hehe). I bought a little bit more LIHC and a miniscule
position in an RVO stock.
Last five trading days 'til...
% of portfolio in the market - 15%
% in cash - 85%
Year to date return - 84%
Dec 17, 2009
I sold almost all my positions today and I was able
to add another 4% in the portfolio, mostly care of NI. I lost one fluc
in PX. I took profits in all the FGEN that I bought yesterday and I made
some money in CPM.
I bought tons of NI at an average price of 4.00 the
other day. Yesterday, I shorted 2/3rds of my position by selling at the
highs and buying back near the close. Today, I didn't move because I was
thinking that there might be a play for the stockholders' meeting
tomorrow. However, when the stock broke below 4.55 today, I took the
money and ran. Greedy kasi eh! (haha)
I bought a very miniscule position today in LIHC, so
tempting today. :-)
Still, "Repent! The End is
Near!" hihihi
% of portfolio in the market - 5%
% in cash - 95%
Year to date return - 84%
Dec 16, 2009
I had fun day-trading NI today. I was able to make
0.5% in the portfolio by doing so (hihihi). Almost all the mining stocks
that I bought yesterday are doing very well, except for PX, which still
looks iffy. But I'm still holding to most of my positions because Gold
hasn't even rebounded yet. I bought a Lopez stock today.
As for the rest of the market, "Repent! The End is
Near!" hahaha
% of portfolio in the market - 70%
% in cash - 30%
Year to date return - 80%
Dec 15, 2009
I loaded up on the mining sector today cause I
believe Gold has finally hit bottom. I added more PX today and I bought
back a little bit of CPM. I loaded up on one issue today - a psedo
mining stock (hehe). Merry Christmas JAP! :-)
% of portfolio in the market - 60%
% in cash - 40%
Year to date return - 80%
Dec 14, 2009
I lost coffee money in the market today care of
MEGW1. After climbing up to as high as 0.77, I bought the stock on the
dips. Unfortunately, it went straight down so I just sold it on the next
rally to 0.65. This is what happens when you're bored in the markets,
you tend to do stupid things that you don't normally do when you're
awake (hahaha). At the close, I bought a small position in PX.
The market is neither here nor there right now. All
eyes will be focused on just one issue tomorrow - NI. The PSE should
meticulously look into all those who sold the stock today or in the last
couple of days. I'm 99% sure that there are those who shorted it.
% of portfolio in the market - 10%
% in cash - 90%
Year to date return - 80%
Dec 11, 2009
I hardly did anything today. After seeing the low
value turnover of the market and the "slow death" behavior of most
stocks, I decided to just call it quits for now. Aside from AB and MRAY,
I just didn't see anything worth buying today. I took the day off early
today and opted not to trade those issues. I sold all my CPM at "same
price".
With the NI rights deferred, I figured that it was
risk-free to buy NI today because all those who wanted to sell NI may
have already sold yesterday. I bought NI at 4.90. However, after
noticing that no one was bidding up the stock, aside from the first
couple of minutes of trading, I decided to just sell it back at 4.95.
I think I'm done for the year. I'm happy and proud to
have made 80% for the year. Any gains I make between now and Dec 29, I
would just consider it as gravy. :-)
% of portfolio in the market - 0%
% in cash - 100%
Year to date return - 80%
Dec 10, 2009
I bought some ACR at the opening, only to sell it
down 2 fluctuations lower. I tried to cover-up my losses for the day
with PX but I was only able to make coffee money on that one. I lessened
my exposure to the market by selling a little bit of my existing
position.
In the last few weeks, eventhough the whole market
was already creeping lower, there were still a handful of issues that
bucked the trend. Right now, it appears like the bulls have no place to
hide anymore. Could the market already have peaked at 3130? In my entire
trading career in the PSE, I don't think I've ever experienced a bearish
reversal in December. Do you believe in Black Swans?
Repent! The End is Near!!!
...one day to go 'til all hell breaks lose in NI!
% of portfolio in the market - 20%
% in cash - 80%
Year to date return - 80%
Dec 9, 2009
I was able to add another 2% in my portfolio today
care of LIHC, which I was able to sell all at 12.50. I actually bought a
little at 12.50 when I saw that prices looked like it was going to hold
above 12.25. It's a good thing my entire order didn't get done. I felt
the weight of the sellers and immediately cancelled my buying and
reversed my bias. Thank you JAP! You're my hero!!! :-)
Today's flavor of the day was no other than JOH. I
wasn't able to get in early but I was able to day-trade it for some
coffee money near the highs. I was telling everybody in the office,
"I'll bet you my ASS that the stock won't hit the ceiling price", thus,
almost everyone was able to get out alive, except for one trader. At the
end of the day, I told him you're in DEEP SHIT! :-)
The Dollar has finally broken out of its downtrend,
thus, all the commodity markets have begun to plunge. The equity markets
has been moving in direct proportion to the commodity markets and has
been moving inversely proportional to the Dollar. Will the equity
markets plunge as well?
Repent! The End is Near!!!
...two days to go 'til...
% of portfolio in the market - 25%
% in cash - 75%
Year to date return - 81%
Dec 8, 2009
I sold most of the mining stocks that I bought
yesterday cause almost all of it didn't move. I sold my PX, with a one
fluc gain and I sold my miniscule position in MA at "same price" (I just
never make money in Lolo stocks). Fortunately, my biggest position
yesterday continued to be very strong today so I just held most of it.
Since I made money in that stock, I decided to cut my stupid position in
OV. I bought some Christmas Presents for Myself today. :-)
A bizzare thing happened to me today. I bid up ACR at
1.40, 1.42 and 1.44 this morning. The stock was already trading at 1.44
when I noticed that one of the "Big Boys" in our firm was selling at
1.44 and he was selling in almost exact same volume as what I bought.
The market probably figured that I was merely day-trading so the upward
momentum stopped when he started selling. I got so pissed that I sold
down the stock back to 1.42 and just never looked at it again. I had to
sell it down because prices might drop back down to 1.36 and I would get
trapped. Why did I get pissed? If you saw that someone was just
day-trading for a one or two fluc gain, would you dare follow his
buying? Fortunately for the bulls, JAP and Tower probably saw that we
were "killing" ourselves in the board and took advantage of the
situation. If he really just wanted to sell, he could either have used
another broker to sell or sell at a much higher level since the upward
momentum has already been established. Obviously, this person, whoever
he is, has a personal grudge on me. I don't know who that person is but
the market certainly has ways to bring karma to people like these.
I had a great time in last night's Eyeball of Finance
Manila. Congratulations to my friend, Bruce, for a successful event!
% of portfolio in the market - 40%
% in cash - 60%
Year to date return - 79%
Dec 7, 2009
I loaded up on the mining sector today. I bought
three issues and went "all-in" on one. Buying mining stocks today is a
counter-intuitive play, which is why I like it. Gold down by almost
$50.00 last Friday, sell all and buy mining! hehe
As for the rest of the market, they are what I call
the living dead.
% of portfolio in the market - 65%
% in cash - 35%
Year to date return - 79%
Dec 4, 2009
I
didn't feel like buying anything today. You can summarize the market
today with NI and ISM going up and PX going down. The rest of the market
was completely boring.
I
sold my FPH and LOTO at breakeven. I was able to make coffee money in
MRAY.
I'm
quite frustrated with ISM. I can't believe that it was able to breakout
today. For the last couple of weeks, I had two "same prices" and two one
fluc losses. After attempting to breakout above 0.0675 for five times
already, I was quite certain that prices will no longer go up so I
didn't touch it. This is exactly the kind of psychology that could
propel this stock higher even from current levels. I don't have a
position in this stock so I'm being objective when I say that this stock
could climb up to 0.09.
I
got very surprised by what NI did today. I'm thinking, people who were
buying this stock this morning were playing with fire. But with JAP, who
knows?!
% of portfolio in the market - 10%
% in cash - 90%
Year to date return - 79%
Dec 3, 2009
I
had a disaster of a day today. I didn't have one big loss, just a number
of small losses here and there.
I
sold all my CPM. I was break-even there. I sold all my ISM for a one
fluc loss. I tried to catch PX at the lows but I just ended up losing
one fluc (Why the hell did I buy that one?!). When I saw the market
panicking, I bought anything that went up. However, at the end of the
day, I felt that I bought more than I should have bought, so I sold back
some of those that didn't look that strong by the close.
Since yesterday, I already had a funny feeling that something just isn't
right with these JAP stocks as well as with CPM and all the other recent
high-flyers. I felt it yesterday when I got hit in I-remit. I also felt
yesterday that everybody, including myself, was already guilty of
looking at one direction (up) in CPM. When everybody starts becoming
complacent, that's when it becomes very dangerous.
Hopefully, the funds will merely rotate from one sector to another. I
think the recent high-flyers are now a "sell". The question is, will the
funds shift to the laggard issues? If they don't rotate, then, we might
not have a Merry Christmas.
% of portfolio in the market - 35%
% in cash - 65%
Year to date return - 79%
Dec 2, 2009
I
was able to make a little money in the market today care of my position
in ACR yesterday but my profits got cut in half because I bid up I-remit
at the opening (stupid me). I was already able to buy I-remit yesterday
so I just thought of averaging up today. Unfortunately, while 110 was a
heavy buyer yesterday in I-remit, he was the heavy seller today. I
decided to sell all my I-remit at the close. I didn't like the behavior
of all the JAP stocks today.
I
also bought a small position in an RVO stock. And, I averaged up on my
"GEM".
% of portfolio in the market - 40%
% in cash - 60%
Year to date return - 81%
Dec 1, 2009
I
had a pretty good start for December today.
I
was able to day-trade PX with a 2 fluc gain. And, I was able to buy a
couple of high-flyers that looked strong by the close.
Ok,
so it's still not the end of the world. Let's play (again)! haha
% of portfolio in the market - 45%
% in cash - 55%
Year to date return - 80%
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