for August 2012
August 30, 2012 (8:00 p.m.)
Almost P1 billion net foreign selling today and it
doesn't seem like they are done with their selling already. Believe it
or not, but we are still in "the calm before the storm", in the weekly
chart that is. Last day tomorrow to place your bets before the coming
"storm" on Monday.
Did ABS/ABSP bottom out in the medium-term?
JAP resigned as Board of Director in NI? I wonder if the
investigations have anything to do with this. Although he resigned in
paper, I doubt if he really resigned. My own conspiracy theory.
GDP figures were announced today and they were better
than expected but why did the market sell-off? Something is obviously
not right about this market.
August 30, 2012 (12:30 a.m.)
Although the PSE is in a short-term rally right now,
world markets are once again in "the calm before the storm". Bernanke on
Friday should be the trigger for a coming big move either up or down.
Place your bets!
GREEN was one of the top gainers of the market today due
to news regarding a buyer at 2 cents. The question is, is there really a
buyer at 2 cents and, if the buyers was really willing to buy at 2
cents, why is he so engrossed at buying it at that high a price? There
are a lot of disclosed transactions in the market wherein the real
amount of the transaction is disclosed at a premium to what the real
amount of the deal was. No, I'm not saying that this is one of them but
traders simply need to be aware of that fact.
EG formed a new low today. Could it be that the 2.3
billion cross transaction the other day is now being distributed in the
Strange as it may seem but BHI is moving in direct
relationship with SGI while ABSP is also moving in direction
relationship with CEB. Although they may be in different industries,
they do have the same chart patterns and the market seems to be behaving
August 29, 2012 (12:00 a.m.)
Short-term bottom for the PSE today? Dow though seems be
in a quandary as well. Whole world waiting for Bernanke on Friday.
I didn't understand why ETON went to the ceiling today.
At P31M first half earnings, the stock is still trading at 77x PE.
Regis selling NI? I wonder what other funds got stuck at
the highs and have yet to sell.
August 24, 2012 (12:00 a.m.)
Below is the PSEi weekly chart from the beginning of the
bull market last late 2008. From an Elliott Wave Principle point of
view, Could that actually be a completed impulse wave already?
I'm quite certain that that move in 2009 to 2010 was a
wave 3. It had all the characteristics of it. And, 2011 certainly looks
and feels like a wave 4. Thus, 2012 is a wave 5 and it just ended a
couple of weeks ago? Notice that, although prices are still trending up
in wave 5, it is merely grinding higher.
August 23, 2012 (12:00 a.m.)
P874 million net foreign selling today. In the last 9
days alone, they sold almost P4 billion worth. This sounds like a lot
already. Just don't ask how much they bought year to date - P30 billion
worth. Obviously, the PSEi is now behaving much weaker than the US. No,
its got nothing to do with the ghost month. Funds are shifting!
I don't know if people will treat this as good news or
bad news but ABA now appears to be a "JAP".
August 16, 2012 (10:30 p.m.)
All the previous high-flyers are now dropping like
flies. Can JAP sustain DIZ?
I bet quite a number of people got whipsawed in GREEN
today. Yes, there may have been a sale at 2 cents but, in this
environment, I would definitely sell at 0.018 if I bought this stock at
0.015 or lower.
Our market was one of the weakest markets in the world
today, not only because ghost month starts tomorrow but also because we
have a long weekend coming up. There will probably be some more residual
selling by tomorrow but contrarians will most likely try their luck at
August 15, 2012 (11:00 p.m.)
With the earnings reporting season almost over and ghost
month just around the corner, is the market now bound to fall? All I
know at this point is that markets around the world, ours included, are
currently at a standstill and are all in "the calm before the storm".
I'm giving it a 50/50 chance on whether it will eventually go up or
With ALI doing an "MVP", he has now won the privilege of
developing the FTI property. Now what? While this may be bullish for ALI
in the long-term, it will probably take years before they actually make
some money out of this investment. I'm quite surprised ALI and RLC
hasn't really fallen that much yet up to now. What are you waiting for?!
The hype is over.
A big foreign fund is doing a kamikaze move by buying
tons of SGI at 12 year highs. I sure hope he knows what he is doing
cause that certainly looks like a "sell" to me.
Is JAP back or is it time to sell JAP while there is
liquidity and is now trading at the highs relative to prices 3 days ago?
Is Macquarie a real fund entering JAP or is it just another done-thru of
JAP who is also selling thru other brokers? Macquarie seems to be the
favorite among "pushers" nowadays.
When you go to a casino, you hear of people hitting a
jackpot and making tons of money. What you don't hear are the 90% of the
people who go there that actually lose money. The market ain't that
different right now. You see moves like BHI and SGI but you don't see
the other 200 stocks that are either moving sideways or going down.
August 14, 2012 (12:30 a.m.)
The only ones happy today are the holders of BHI. I have
to admit, I am very much surprised at how strong this stock is but, will
you still be happy if you are one of those who bought at 0.174?
Our market isn't the only one which is behaving quite
erratically nowadays. After looking quite strong last Friday, the Dow is
currently down by 94 points as of this writing.
August 12, 2012 (9:30 p.m.)
Did the mining sector finally bottom-out last Friday?
Gatchi was a one-day wonder? I guess that just sums up
the behavior of the whole market nowadays. I hope the mining sector
rally last Friday isn't just a one-day thingy as well. I'm quite
surprised by BHI but, given the situation of the market right now, I
wouldn't be surprised if that is already a "sell" by tomorrow.
The big question in TDY now is, how much are they going
to sell it to the foreign funds? This sale will give the market an
indication of how much TDY should really be worth right now. If they
value it at current prices, that means that the real value of the stock
is much higher than where it is right now. But, if they give a discount
and sell it lower than current market prices, then, that would mean that
the market is overestimating the value of TDY.
Sorry, I wasn't able to update the website this weekend
cause I was quite busy.
August 9, 2012 (9:00 p.m.)
After being very strong yesterday, MEG
and FGEN just dropped back down today. ALI's drop was kind of expected
cause that was too high already but certainly not MEG and FGEN. That's
how erratic this market is right now.
If you were in JAP stocks right now, the
market isn't at 5200, it's at 4500 already.
Triggered by ACE, Gatchi is suddenly in
play once again. Rumor has it that Chucky is now completely out of ACE.
Given Chucky's reputation nowadays, that certainly is bullish news for
holders of ACE.
August 9, 2012 (12:30 p.m.)
Although the market did go up today, it's still quite a
weird market. I see some stocks going up the roof, yet, I see some
dropping like rocks.
TDY is still at it? I'm hearing valuations of 15, 20 and
25. I wonder which is the right one.
Whereas the whole market is near all time highs, mining
is like in a bear market already.
I don't understand why buyers still pushed ABA up to
0.82 today. That seemed very illogical to me.
August 6, 2012 (8:30 p.m.)
Market was a dud today. I'm not sure if that's a
worrying sign or it's just a natural behavior, which we have been
experiencing for quite sometime now.
A lot of people got caught in MJC today. I was hoping
that that MJC/MJIC run-up could jump start the ceiling plays already.
Unfortunately, because of what happened to those stocks today, I'm
afraid ceiling plays are going to be rare once again. MJC today is like
TDY like Friday. If so, MJC will do small rally tomorrow, just like what
TDY did today?
Gatchi selling ACE at the lows? Or, could he just be
showing that he is selling (broker 270) but is actually buying thru
other brokers? I can't believe that the insider will actually sell ACE
at these levels.
Strong rally in CAL today. Could it have formed a
medium-term bottom at 5.20? Although it may have indeed, I wouldn't
expect any uptrends yet for now.
A column in the PDI newspaper stated that a nickel
company may be diverting its revenues to the pockets of its owners,
thus, causing a mini panic among all the nickel stocks. It didn't
mention which stock it was but, if I were to guess which one it is, I
would guess that it would be ORE, given its weakness today.
August 4, 2012 (7:00 p.m.)
Finally! The big run of TDY has ended. While this will
certainly not drop back down to 5.00, it may consolidate/correct for
now, especially given the big overhang above. Value turnover of TDY was
a whopping P929 million. I wonder how much of that bought at 13.50 or
higher and just held on to their positions. The nice thing about what
happened to TDY is that it appears to have triggered the basura season.
MJC/MJIC is next. The search is on for the next ceiling!
By the way, if CAL is the complete opposite of TDY,
then, could it be that TDY formed a medium-term peak while CAL formed a
medium-term bottom already?
August 2, 2012 (10:30 p.m.)
TDY continued to power higher today and closed at the
ceiling price once again. Value turnover of the stock was a whopping
P600 million. I've been hearing some absurd valuations already and
everybody now looking at nothing but up. I would start getting cautious
in TDY tomorrow. I really doubt if will still go to the ceiling by
Try inverting the chart of TDY, doesn't that look like
CAL? Rumors of investigation again. JAP stocks were affected by CAL as
well but he certainly made a statement in NI.
August 1, 2012 (10:00 p.m.)
The giant story of the day was TDY. Very rarely does one
get to find a gem in the stock market like this one. From just being a
liquor company, it will now be a holding company of El Kapitan. I have
to hand it to the insiders of this stock. Everyone was just so tight
lipped about it that I didn't know anything about it up until yesterday
only. As early as mid-June, the technicals was clearly showing that
something special was going on. I just didn't imagine that it was going
to be this big of a news. The big question now is, what is fair value of
the company? Obviously, there will be dilution but the added value of
what is going to be injected into the company is outweighing any
negative effects of the dilution. Technically, I just don't have a clue
where this one is going next as it is now well above target. I saw some
Lucio Tan-related brokers selling the stock today. That is but natural
as they would tend to take advantage of the liquidity in order to sell
but that doesn't necessarily mean that it's going to drop. I'm not sure
who First Metro was though. I saw him hijack the opening and, I thought
to myself, what a stupid fellow this guy is. At the end of the day, he
was net seller by almost 3.5 million shares. Could it be that he simply
hijacked the opening so that he could sell more on the way down? If that
is so, he was actually a genius. I still don't understand why he is
giving away free money in PXP though.