Miko's Blog for
Aug 31, 2011 (11:30 p.m.)
still have a hang-over from all the booze that I drank over the weekend.
I spent two days in Pico de Loro in Batangas. It was a great place with
fantastic amenities. The beach wasn't Boracay but it was pretty good for
Batangas. The service was good. The food was great. And, if you have
kids, the kiddie station was super. You can leave your kids there the
whole day while you and your spouse can swim in the pool, play tennis,
or, do something in the hotel room (hehe). A night life is probably the
only thing that was lacking but the bar in the hotel is open for 24
hours. The vacation came with a price though but it was worth it.
the way, after being in a "floating status" for the last six months, my
new home is now Nieves Sanchez Securities. :-)
Aug 27, 2011 (10:30 p.m.)
be out of town for the next three days. The next update of Tsupitero.com
will be on Monday, Sept 5, 2011. The next update of my blog will be on
Wednesday, Aug 31, 2011. Happy Holidays Tsupiteros!
Aug 25, 2011 (9:00 p.m.)
bet everyone was just staring into space and was in a state of shock at
the end of trading today. With Gold plunging by another $80.00 last
night, it finally gave people a reason to take profits from the mining
issues. The thing is, when the leader falls (LC), everything drops along
with it and that includes all the basura stocks. The market was only
down by 23 points but if you were into the mining and/or basura sector,
you probably felt like the whole market dropped by 10%. I'm sorry,
whoever said that Gold was a safe haven?
finally resumed trading today and rallied very strongly, however, are
those buyers today really sure that they are not paying a steep price by
buying at 3.00? Take note, RCBC Sec was a big buyer again today. Do you
remember what happens when he buys a lot?
getting dizzy na with BHI. I'll be damned if I see that one trade at
0.44 again by tomorrow.
long weekend coming up and Bernanke opening his mouth tomorrow, I would
salute anyone who would be willing to put a big position in the market
PSE announced a recomposition of the index on Sept 12.
OUT - LC, FLI, ABS,
IN - BEL, CEB, SMDC,
LC will be taken out
and will be replaced by BEL or CEB?! There is obviously something very
wrong with how the PSE selects those stocks that will be included in the
Aug 25, 2011 (12:30 a.m.)
was up by 322 points last night but why was the whole Asian region down?
That's because no one wants to bid up prices for fear of getting caught
buying at the highs. As of this writing, Dow is now down by 40 points
after being up by as much as 115 points earlier. Did the Dow peak
tonight? Gold, on the other hand, is now down by another $40.00. A lot
are now probably thinking that the rally in Gold is over. But what if
the Dow plunges below its support at around 10750 in the next few days?
Isn't that a bear flag that I'm seeing in the Dow?
see shooting stars on all JAP stocks today. Could that be it for JAP
stocks, or, is this simply a correction within their overall uptrend?
got very surprised with BHI today. I could have sworn that the stock
peaked already yesterday, obviously, it did not.
finally disclosed more information about its quasi-reorg today and will
resume trading tomorrow. However, did they really clarify what the real
value of PWR should be at this point? I still see people who are looking
at 5.00 and some who are looking at one decimal point lower.
LC and MA continue to defy gravity by tomorrow, in spite of the big
plunge in Gold? That depends on what Lolo is thinking. If you were Lolo,
what would you do?
Aug 24, 2011 (1:00 a.m.)
Dow is rallying strongly at the moment (up by 221 points as of this
writing) and Gold is currently down by almost $50.00 right now. Still,
the big question remains, did the Dow bottom out already and has Gold
finally peaked, or, is the Dow merely doing another dead-cat bounce and
this would be another opportunity to get in in Gold? If we follow the
trend, one should still be bearish on the Dow and bullish on Gold. The
thing is, both markets are at extremities right now and may very well be
at a peak or at a bottom. The only problem is, if you make the wrong
call and the Dow drops back down and Gold climbs back up, you may not
only lose money by buying the laggard blues or second-line issues, you
might also miss the chance to buy into the mining sector. Admittedly,
I'm as dumbfounded as everybody else.
Aug 18, 2011 (9:00 p.m.)
have to admit, I did not foresee the market to do what it did this
morning. Either something changed for the better or today was big bad
bull-trap. Doesn't the market know that the Dow is going to 10,000? From
the way I see it, the Dow already did its first move down a few weeks
ago. It made a rally upwards in the last few days. It's now about to
begin its next phase down (futures down 225 points as of this writing).
Foreign funds seems to be convinced though as they were net buyers today
for the first time in so many days. If you'll notice, it is only our
market and Indonesia that defied gravity in the whole region today.
Obviously, these two markets are the preferred markets right now but can
they defy gravity if the whole world is pushing downwards?
Another thing that really surprised me today was BHI. I was only
expecting a move going towards 0.25. Not in my wildest dreams did I see
0.30. I bet a lot of people were thinking the same and shorted, which is
why it was very strong today.
lot of confusion going on in PWR's disclosure yesterday regarding its
capital restructuring. The PSE must really make sure that PWR explains
in detail the changes in the Company before it resumes trading so that
no one gets confused on whether this should go to 5.00 or 0.50 cents.
Aug 17, 2011 (9:30 p.m.)
The market is now getting smaller and smaller to Tsupiteros like me. I
was thinking that the mining sector might be immune to drops in the
market because Gold is still very strong but PX, LC and MA were all down
today despite Gold climbing strongly last night. I was thinking that
some select 3rd line issues might be immune but today, I felt like the
sector, if you can call it a sector, lacked conviction. Some previous
darlings that already dropped from its highs doesn't seem like is
rebounding anymore and those that are currently strong tend to peak in
just one or two days. I can't go to the big caps or second-liners
because they all seem like the "living dead". I guess no where else to
go but to stay in cash for now.
thought WPI would finally do it today but I guess the market got quite
scared when they saw a new foreign entity selling (CLSA). Wow! Those
must be "ipits" from four years ago.
will be suspended tomorrow as the Company announces some equity
restructuring in light of Century Property's entry into the company.
While the news may seem bullish, the big question now is, will there be
dilution on existing shareholders? Remember, the company has a negative
P14 billion in its retained earnings and P9 billion in liabilities.
There's a reason why the previous shareholders of PWR sold the Company
to Century Properties by a mere P0.04 centavos per share. Still, it's
all a perceptions game and the next move of PWR will depend if the
market will look at the dilution or will look forward and will look at
it becoming Century Properties.
overheard Lolo this morning saying, "My turn!" (hehe, j/k)
Aug 16, 2011 (11:00 p.m.)
There was a mini-panic in the market today as LC collapsed from its peak
at 1.57. The stock dragged the whole third line sector and some mining
issues as well. I've been targeting 1.55 in my newsletter for the last
few days now so it would seem that I was dead on. But did LC really peak
seems to have peaked at 2.89 today as well. RCBC Securities is quite
weird. When prices are at the lows, he sells a lot, but when prices are
the highs, he reverses and buys a lot. Is he doing that on purpose or is
he simply a contrarian indicator?
came out this afternoon that NI issued an additional 100 million shares
to JAP at 2.00. No comment. (I'll do my best and try to keep my mouth
high for Gold coming up?
Aug 15, 2011 (8:00 p.m.)
declares a P2.3 billion net loss in the first semester. Could this be a
sign of things to come?
stated the other day, the only stocks that can or may survive in this
current environment are the speculative issues, which do not care about
the concerns of the world. Of course, those stocks that have jockeys may
be the best bets. JAP stocks are an obvious bet. Lolo stocks are, of
course, still in my radar but I find them too high already for my taste.
Those obscure and exotic stocks like PWR, BSC, BHI, EVER, etc. may be
able to survive if the insiders don't sell, of course. My best bets
though are the Gatchalian stocks as they have been dormant for a very
long time now (4 years). The only condition left for them to really take
off is "T+3".
Aug 13, 2011 (8:00 a.m.)
Obviously, equities have indeed found a bottom, however, this may just
be a short-term rally as the bigger picture is indeed in a downtrend
already. For those who are currently long, you should take this rally as
an opportunity to get out, in my opinion. Markets are quite deceiving
though. This rally will peak when everybody becomes a bit bullish again
(maybe not yet at this time).
Gold, on the other hand, has now dropped by $60.00 from its peak at
1800. Could it be that Gold has already formed a multi-year peak at
1800? Or, maybe just a short-term peak? If one is bearish on equities,
then, one should be bullish on Gold. But, Gold is on a parabola and
everybody is so bullish with it already. So bearish both on equities and
Gold? I really couldn't figure it out.
where's a safe investment now? You can either look to short-sell the US
markets on the rally or just buy a bear fund or ETF; You can look for
stocks that seems to be jockeyed and does not care about the worries of
the world; or, You can just stay in cash, wait for everything to
collapse in the next few months (or couple of years), and, plan ahead in
investing in the greatest buying opportunity of a lifetime. :-)
Aug 10, 2011 (5:00 p.m.)
Finally! Markets have found a bottom.....or have they?
PSE's volatility in the last couple of days have suddenly multiplied by
six times. From an average volatility of just half a percent per day,
the PSE's volatility has suddenly jumped by 3% per day. What does this
mean? Your portfolio can increase or decrease by 3% per day, depending
on the mood of the markets. It's ok if the general trend is up. The
problem now is, the general trend is still down, thus, there is more
chances that you will lose 3% than making 3% the following day.
the market made in the last one and a half months, it destroyed in the
last six days. Don't be sad if you already made 15% in your portfolio in
the last one a half months, only to lose it all in the last six days. I
bet most people are in the same boat as you. When markets crash from a
new all-time high, that's when everybody gets hit. That's because people
have become so accustomed to buying the dips.
Isn't this funny? When you lose 5% in one day while the whole market is
going up, you would feel very depressed about it. But if you lose 10% in
one day because the whole market crashed, you don't feel as bad.
thing that I just couldn't decipher up to now is Gold. Gold is now
moving in a parabola, which means that it may be nearing the end of its
move. However, if world markets are going to continue to come crashing
down, then, Gold will continue to trend up? But everyone's already
looking at one direction in Gold. Could it be that equities are now bullish and Gold is now
bearish? But I can't see equities being bullish anymore after what it
did in the last few days. Something's not right in my assumptions. Hmmm...
Aug 9, 2011 (6:30 a.m.)
when we thought nothing can get worse than this, the S&P downgrades the
US debt ratings. The news have caused equities to dive once again with
Dow dropping by 634 points last night. Markets are now reaching
extremely oversold conditions though (not yet for the PSEi). I
wouldn't be surprised if, during the week, the Dow snaps back up and
rallies by 1000 points in one day. The fear in the markets are now just
at an extreme. The $60.00 spike in Gold is an evidence of that. I
wouldn't be a buyer in Gold at this point and I would definitely not be
a short-seller of the Dow right now.
God of Stocks (Zeus) continued to rocket higher this morning and seems
totally unmindful of what is happening with the whole world. Actually,
it seems like it is the Black Samurai that has become very bullish on
the stock. However, Lolo seems to have other plans in mind as he seemed
to be the one selling. Value turnover today for ZHI was a whopping P800
million. If I see value turnover increase to P800 million in a stock
like Ayala Corp., I will be very bullish on that stock. But when I see
value turnover increase to P800 million in a stock like ZHI, I start
Another stock that seems to be bucking the trend of the market is PWR. I
don't know if this is because the market knows that SB Equities is
almost done with his selling or it's because Paris Hilton is coming to
town on Saturday. Century Properties, the company that bought PWR, has
invited Ms. Hilton to be its designer in one of its projects. Up to
today, everyone's still guessing what's to become of PWR.
Aug 8, 12:00 (12:00 a.m.)
last 12 days
Jakarta Composite Index
Straits Times Index
Hang Seng Index
BSE Sensex 30 Index
Dow Jones Industrial Average
S&P 500 Index
All Ordinaries Index
Taiwan Taiex Index
Kospi Composite Index
Philadelphia Gold & Silver Sector Index
table above shows the performances of some select equity indices around
the world and their performances year to date as well as what they did
in the last 12 days. As you can see, our very own PSEi is the top
performer dropping by only 1.54% in the last 12 days. Notice that even
the mighty Indonesia has now fared worse than us. The question now is,
is the strength justified? Personally, I believe we have a lot of
"catching up" to do.
is a picture of me and my friend, the God "Zeus". :-)
Above is a picture of the participants of my recently concluded seminar.
Congratulations to all that attended! You are now one step closer to
finding your holy grail!
Aug 5, 2011 (12:30 a.m.)
don't know if you've noticed but ZHI and BSC seems to be climbing in
alternating fashion. If this is true, then, ZHI is now a sell and BSC is
now a buy. The only problem now is, a lot of people may have already
caught up with the trend that it may no longer happen.
Gold still glittering, Lolo is continuing to be alive and kicking.
Unbelievable rocket ship moves from JAP's ORE and AGP. He sure seems to
be quite "lenient" nowadays.
Gatchalian appears to have begun its "second round" today. Will
Gatchalian stocks, led by WPI, be the next big thing? Take note,
Gatchalian hasn't moved for the last four years. I'm betting that he is
now dying to make a comeback.
of this writing, Dow is currently down 300 points. The big caps and
second-line issues will most certainly take a beating if the Dow closes
this way. The question is, can the basuras continue to remain unscathed
and go their own separate ways?
Aug 3, 2011 (11:00 p.m.)
stand corrected, I'm scared of ghosts. The big question now is, is 4563
just a short-term peak or was that already a medium-term peak?
did the US Markets accelerate to the downside last night? It's because a
lot of people are using the 200-day moving average as their "line in the
sand" and those lines got broken last night. The big question now for
the Dow is, is the 2-year bull over? My last line of defense is the
Whereas the whole world is collapsing, the "blue-chip stocks" are
continuing to climb and are oblivious to the world. Thank God, we still
have some playgounds left. As for the real blue chips, all of them are
is now certainly on the move. I don't know but, somehow, I have a weird
feeling that the "old JAP" is back. I surely would love to take his
stocks out of my black list. :-)
Aug 2, 2011 (9:00 p.m.)
says they're afraid of ghosts? Although the ghost month already begun
last Sunday, the market registered five ceilings today. Wow!!! Any
basura stock that hasn't moved yet up to now can now be considered even
lower than trash (haha).
Gatchi - The man of the hour as two of five ceilings were his and WPI
has already tripled from its lows at its highs today.
see a lot of people worshipping the God of Stocks (Zeus). :-)
MA now trading at a new 52-week high and LC still going at it, some
people are thinking that Lolo has already found the secret to longevity.
new classification based on the market's new order:
Blue chips - LC, MA, PWR, ZHI, ORE, BHI and BSC.
Second-line stocks - EVER, WPI, UNI, VITA, MARC, LIHC, etc.
Basura stocks - CPM, T, TBGI, ANI, SLI and any other basura stock that
hasn't rallied yet up to now. (Take note, I would be very, very
concerned of the market if these stocks begin to rally already, hehe)
Despite the inevitable agreement on the US Debt Ceiling, Wall Street
failed to rally as some economic reports came out and were worse than
expected. Last night was the 7th consecutive drop in a row for the Dow.
Could it go for an 8th tonight? Will 12,000 break?