Miko's Blog for Aug 2009

It was a pretty good trading day for me today as I was able to day-trade CYBR and ORE. I bought a cement company, I bought a Lopez stock, and, I was also able to buy more PO.

I loaded up on the portfolio today because I think the markets are about to make a parabolic move to the upside. Remember what happened last week when we had a long weekend? Could this be de javu?

% of portfolio in the market - 90%

% in cash - 10%

Year to date return - 55%

Aug 27, 2009

I sold my BPC today, which I bought yesterday. I lost coffee money in that one. I loaded up on the mining sector today. The market is rotating from those that are high to those that are low. I think properties are now at their highs and mining is currently at their lows.

The market seems to be holding up and looks poised to trend up further. Maybe I was just paranoid in the last couple of days. Still, although the market is continuing to climb, it is no longer climbing at the same pace as it did a couple of months ago. My trading style is now totally contradictory to what the market is doing right now. I really need to change what I'm currently doing. Don't follow what I'm doing. It's just so hard to change trading styles when you get so accustomed to it already.

The Dow is currently trading at resistance right now, which is why it has been hesitating in the last couple of days. In my opinion, we are now very close to the very peak of this rally already. However, I don't think you would want to stop trading yet. If the Dow climbs up a lot again tonight, I would tend to think that it is now forming a parabolic move - an almost vertical move to the upside. The biggest moves of the market may yet to come.

% of portfolio in the market - 40%

% in cash - 60%

Year to date return - 54%

Aug 26, 2009

I took profits from all my NI today. Once again I got whipsawed today, this time, in PX as I bought it at 10.25 and I just ended up selling it at the same price. I bought a Lopez stock and a miniscule position in an exotic mining stock.

My election-related stock has finally moved - PO. Why buy VLL when you can buy PO instead? Free float of this stock is less than 1% with almost all the 99% being held by the future president.

I hate trading this part of the trend. I know that the market is already very high but since it's still trending up, I keep on playing. The problem is, I just couldn't hold on to positions anymore because I am scared that I might be buying at the highs. Breakouts hardly work anymore because the rate of ascent of the market is no longer like it was 2 or 3 months ago. I'm getting tired of this "buy now and sell later with a one fluc loss" habit. I want the market to go down already so that we could all "reset".

Once again, there is just something not right about this market and it's making me a little jittery.

% of portfolio in the market - 30%

% in cash - 70%

Year to date return - 55%

Aug 25, 2009

What a disappointing move on MER today! I swear, every time I try to "buy and hold", that's the time when I usually end up selling at the lows. I was trying very hard to control myself into selling at the 230 level because I was targeting a much higher level. I ended up selling when the stock broke below 220.00. While I still made money in the stock, I could have made much more had I not been greedy.

I got whipsawed one fluc in PAX today and I ended up selling at break-even in CEI.

I also sold some of my other positions today. I don't know if I'm just pikon with what I did with MER, or, there's something fishy about this market. Somehow, I'm just not that comfortable holding overnight positions.

% of portfolio in the market - 20%

% in cash - 80%

Year to date return - 55%

Aug 24, 2009

I knew MER was ripe for a bullish reversal already so I concentrated on that stock today. I got whipsawed twice at first, losing a couple of fluctuations, but when I saw that the upswing was now for real, I loaded up.

I bought and sold VLL at the same price, thinking that the stock may follow the property sector.

I also bought a miniscule position in a speculative issue at the close.

The market was unbelievable today. While I knew that the market would go up today, I never expected it to go up by 140 points. Whew! Could we be looking at 3200 already? If you look at the charts, that's exactly what the charts are saying right now. No need to be afraid right now as a lot of people, who sold in the last couple of days, did not chase prices today. They will be waiting for the Dow to drop before buying. Thus, there is just no chance for the market to drop at this point. I told you, there are no such thing as ghosts! :-)

% of portfolio in the market - 85%

% in cash - 15%

Year to date return - 53%

Aug 22, 2009

I just finished taking the exam for the PAM or the new trading system of the PSE. I am happy to have passed it with flying colors. (haha)

What I liked about the PAM:

1. Stop-Loss orders - While this would surely be a very good tool for Tsupiteros, it would pose both as an advantage and a disadvantage. I expect a lot of bull and bear-traps because of this.

2. The infamous Iceberg order - For those who trade in size, this will surely come in handy. Tsupiteros need to be aware of the existence of this feature or they might get themselves into a situation wherein they would be fighting an invisible giant.

3. The smaller fluctuations - For Tsupiteros like me, who use very tight stops, this would surely be an advantage. Of course, the backdrop of this is that there could be more whipsaws as well. Also, I could finally start playing penny stocks like OV or OPM because they would now become "tradeable".

4. The Pre-Close - Although Chucky would have no problem with this, JAP's regular board lot closing would now be jeopardy. Finally, we would have closing prices based on real market price action. Force closings would now be a thing of the past.

5. Basket orders - The ability to place two or more orders all at the same time would certainly be a very nice addition to our tools in the market.

What I didn't like about PAM:

1. It's not user-friendly - Another advantage of PAM over its predecessor is its ability to customize. However, because of so many things that you could customize in the system, the software has become a bit difficult to use, especially for the non-techie.

2. Three types of tickers - I would understand that some people may probably want to customize the data that they would get on their ticker but three types of tickers? Don't you think that that is a bit exaggerated? I think the guy who thought of this was a bit drunk. The users will only get confused by this.

3. The Dynamic Threshold - I am always against anything that would limit or curtail movement of prices in the market. I believe in the free market and that goes with the stock market as well. Believe me, this feature will only further exaggerate price moves in the market.

4. Sliding Validity - Why not call it GTY (Good 'Til One Year)? Again, the PSE is making it difficult for us.

5. "NMER" - C'mon guys! I'm sure you can find a way to remove the "N".

Overall, I am giving the PAM a high passing mark, despite some of its shortcomings. I would give them a perfect score if they could address those issues above.

The PAM is scheduled to be rolled out and replace the dinosaur Mactrade by Oct 2, 2009. I'll make a bet...they'll start implementing this by January!

I'd like to thank the hard working ladies and gentlemen of the PSE, who worked overtime and conducted the seminar and the exam in our office in HDI Securities yesterday and today.

Aug 20, 2009

It's funny because, although I knew MER could drive the market lower today, I still bought a small position in MEG at the open. I did it because I began the day with the predisposition that I wanted to load up on the portfolio. Why did I want do that? I had a dream last night - Dow 10,000! The only problem now is, which do we follow? MER or the Dow? If we took out MER from the market, we could probably have gone up today.

I ended up losing one fluc in MEG. I also lost one fluc in PX. While I haven't been hit big so far throughout this current correction of the market, these one fluc losses is beginning to eat up on my portfolio already. I think I need to filter my buy signals already and be a little bit more selective next week. I was able to make coffee money by day-trading MER. I'm happy for not touching DGTL today. I already learned my lesson yesterday.

I averaged up on my mining stock and I was able to buy a little bit more of my election-related stock.

I don't know if I'm right with my analysis of the Dow but, despite what happened to the PSEi today, I would have to say, I don't believe in ghosts!

% of portfolio in the market - 35%

% in cash - 70%

Year to date return - 54%

Aug 19, 2009

I made a little money in BPC today. I bought near the highs yesterday so I didn't want to get greedy today cause it might go back to my cost so I sold it near the opening today. When the stock retraced to 3.80, I bought it back. When I saw that it wasn't going to follow-thru, I sold it again at the same price.

I got whipsawed one fluc in DGTL.

I bought a small position in PX today. I know I said in my "chart of the week" last weekend that I am bearish on the stock. However, it seems bullish to me that the stock is still holding at current levels.

I also bought a miniscule position in a stock that will be my "elections" play. I plan to accumulate this one over the next few days. I believe it's time to bring this back from the grave.

I am comfortably holding on to my existing mining stock.

I'm glad I didn't touch MER anymore today. It looks quite vulnerable already, if you ask me.

Everybody thinks last night's rally in the Dow and today's rally in the PSEi was just a dead-cat bounce. I'm not exactly very bullish yet, as you can see from my position-sizing, but I don't think the Dow will drop tonight.

% of portfolio in the market - 30%

% in cash - 70%

Year to date return - 55%

Aug 18, 2009

It was a so-so day for me today. While I didn't get hit by the downswing in the market since I was completely liquid yesterday, I felt like I wasn't able to take advantage that much of the intra-day rebound today.

I was focusing so much in MER the whole morning, which I ended up losing one fluctuation once again. Damn! While the entire Lopez group seems to be moving up already, it came to me as a surprise that MER, which was quite strong yesterday, was such a laggard today. My error as a trader was that I failed to shift quickly enough to what was currently moving.

I still ended up buying another Lopez stock and I also bought quite a bit of a mining stock.

By the way, with regards to the chart that I showed you yesterday, that chart is the monthly chart of the S&P 500. Obviously, that chart is far from being bullish and, in fact, looks very bearish to me. If I analyze the markets solely from that chart alone, I would say that the rally that we have had this last March is simply a dead-cat bounce and prices will still end up trending down from here. Of course, there is a possibility that this upswing may end up being an uptrend after all, however, at this point, to say that it is already in an uptrend or in a bull market in the long-term, is still inconclusive to me.

% of portfolio in the market - 30%

% in cash - 70%

Year to date return - 55%

Aug 17, 2009

I made some money in CYBR today as I sold all that I bought last Friday.

I lost one fluc in MER as I tried to pick its bottom today. I was able to buy it one fluc from the lows but I sold it back as it didn't look like it was going to rally. It eventually did but the rally was definitely whipsawish for day-traders as it didn't rally like the last time that it dropped to 190.00.

The PSEi is now confirmed to have reversed back down in the short-term. Just imagine, the market was already down a lot today and the Dow hasn't even broken its support yet. The big question now is, will this be a shallow correction or will this be a deep one?

The lesson I learned for this rally: As a short-term trader, I have a tendency to follow the tape rather than the chart. But if you know that the market is going to continue to trend higher, one should follow the chart and not the tape. For the last couple of weeks, I have been getting whipsawed by this market already. It was definitely a sign that the market was toppish but if I followed the chart, I could have probably squeezed another 5 to 10% in my portfolio.

While I was a bit disappointed with the performance of my portfolio in the last couple of weeks, I feel that by tracking the performance of the whole market, I was at least able to reach my "quota". A lot of people have been criticizing my trading system for the last couple of weeks but what most people don't understand is that my trading system is a very, very conservative approach to the markets. It's goal is to simply track the index on the way up but beat it on the way down. My trading system is the complete opposite of a buy and hold strategy, which will probably beat my trading system on the way up but will collapse if the market starts to trend down.

By the way, for those of you who think that this is the start of bull market already, I want you to look closely at this chart below. I will tell you tomorrow what that chart is but I took out the labels so that you can judge objectively if it is trending up or trending down. The question I want you answer is, are you bullish of this chart or are you bearish?

% of portfolio in the market - 0%

% in cash - 100%

Year to date return - 55%

Aug 14, 2009

Yesterday, when the Dow Futures was up by more than a hundred points, reminded me that I cannot be totally out of this market yet. I bought but one stock today using a totally different trading style than what I usually do. It worked! Hihihi

% of portfolio in the market - 25%

% in cash - 75%

Year to date return - 54%

Aug 13, 2009

I liquidated all my positions today. I'm very pissed not only of the market but of the computers in the office. I just couldn't trade today cause our computer was hanging every 5 minutes. I don't know if it's our computer in the office, or, if it's the internet, or, if it's the PSE. Anyway, I didn't want to buy anything volatile with our computer that way.

I also got very pissed because none of the things that I have been doing in the last couple of months is working anymore. There are just so many bull-traps happening already. It seems that when a stock breaks out, you should be selling, not buying. I just don't trust any breakouts anymore. I'm taking so much risk in the markets but I just couldn't get my portfolio to move. I think I'll take time off from the market tomorrow to re-assess my trading strategy.

I made money in a couple of issues today but got whipsawed in some. I took profits from all my NI and PA today. I tried to average up on VLL but I ended up selling all my shares at cost. I can't believe that trade didn't work out. I sold my remaining MPI. I got hit one fluc in PX. I thought it would do a MER, stupid me.

The entire mining sector looks like a "take profits" right now. The properties, the banks and the Lopezes are in the doldrums and looks so "iffy". The ones that are going to the roof right now are the 3rd line issues, which is a bearish sign.

I'm getting quite frustrated already because I feel that I've underperformed the market in the last few weeks. Can somebody tell me if it's just me or is it really the market?

% of portfolio in the market - 0%

% in cash - 100%

Year to date return - 54%

Aug 12, 2009

I'm so relieved I was able to get out of LIB. I think I bought too much of that one yesterday. I was able to day-trade NI and LIHC today. I bought a relatively strong property stock. I also bought a miniscule position in PA.

My blooper for the day was buying MPI near the highs. I thought it broke out of its range already. I think there's still hope for this one but I still sold it just to be on the safe side.

After all my buying and selling in the last two weeks, my portfolio still isn't moving. What can I say? It's starting to be really tough out there already. Signs of a peak or is the market just resting before it continues to go up? I think it's the former but I'm trying to keep an open mind.

% of portfolio in the market - 35%

% in cash - 65%

Year to date return - 54%

Aug 11, 2009

I think I over-traded a bit today. I made some coffee money in some issues and lost coffee money in some but my biggest error was in buying back my position in PAX.

It's so tempting to buyback your position at the lows when you know that you were able to sell at the highs. However, I keep on forgetting that, what is important isn't whether you were able to buy at the lows, what is more important is whether the stock that you bought will go up. I broke my own personal trading rules in PAX today and I ended up cutting in half my winnings yesterday.

I sold my MEG at cost. I made coffee money literally in MER and MPI.

I bought an RSA stock and a mining stock today.

It's really weird but Tuesday is always a bad day for me in trading.

By the way, yesterday, Tsupitero.com had the most number of visitors in one day as 2586 unique users came. :-)

% of portfolio in the market - 35%

% in cash - 65%

Year to date return - 54%

Aug 10, 2009

I've been very the whole day trying to format my new notebook. I need to apologize to the subscribers of my newsletter cause I sent it a bit late today. Sorry but I was only able to get the notebook up and running late during the night.

Did I certainly underestimate this market. I could have sworn that the Dow was going to collapse already last Friday. Luckily for the bulls, it didn't.

Anyway, I too was quite lucky today cause I was able to make some money in PAX today.

I tried to day-trade PX but I just sold at break-even.

I bought MER and a small position in MEG.

I don't know about you guys but I find it very hard to trade this market already. Why? Because it's in a point wherein it is still strong but is now quite high. Everytime I buy, I find myself getting paranoid that the correction may come already. "The more fear there is in the market, the more likely that it will continue to go up" - that is what the bulls will say. Of course, this will not last forever and, at some point, the market will reverse back down...but maybe not yet. I only hope that we can still squeeze a little bit more profit in this market before it all ends.

% of portfolio in the market - 40%

% in cash - 60%

Year to date return - 55%

Aug 7, 2009

I sold the MA that I bought yesterday at cost because everybody seems to be waiting to sell above.

I was able to day-trade PX and CYBR today for some coffee money.

PX was just phenomenal. RSA buying?! Hmmm...something fishy is going on in here. I have a conspiracy theory: RSA and MVP are really in cahoots with each other in all these deals in the market.

% of portfolio in the market - 0%

% in cash - 100%

Year to date return - 53%

Aug 6, 2009

I got killed in LIHC today. I knew Chucky would get back at me since I made money in MUSX. Hay naku, I will never touch Chucky again. They are just impossible to trade. Sayang naman JAP stocks as they have been infected by him as well.

I got whipsawed too in IP as it looked good to go already this morning. Unfortunately, I guess the weakness of the whole market dragged it down as well.

The only thing I did right today was to sell my MER at the highs. I was also able to day-trade it a couple of times so that at least offset some of my losses for the day.

I was planning to buy and hold my minuscule position in EVER but I got afraid that the liquidity might dry out if the market starts to drop so I decided to just get my coffee money.

I am holding but one stock right now, which I bought near the close today.

Today is the first day in a long time that I saw some cracks in the technical picture of some issues in the market. The big question now is, have we already seen the top?

I can't believe I hardly made money for this run in the market. Looking back, I think my biggest mistake was choosing the stock that I trade. If you'll notice, my Tsupitero index is merely up by 27% year to date. This means that the speculative issues did not really move up a lot. Aside from MER, blue chips also lagged. So, people who made a lot of money recently were those who were in the second-line issues.

Just remember, while some of you may still be buying and holding up to now, you don't want to be caught holding the bag when this rally ends.

% of portfolio in the market - 10%

% in cash - 90%

Year to date return - 53%

Aug 4, 2009

I'm very happy today because I was able to sell all my MA and MAB at the highs. I also sold all my NI with some profits.

I bought MER.

% of portfolio in the market - 40%

% in cash - 60%

Year to date return - 54%

P.S.

To PSE,

Kindly refrain from halting an issue in the market and then reopening it at mid-day without a pre-open. I think that is unfair to the public.

Aug 3, 2009

I think I finally got my groove back after two weeks of sub-par performance.

I sold all my PNB today for a nice P0.75 gain on that position.

I bought VLL at 2.60 but I ended up selling at the same price.

I bought tons of mining issues today.

It looks like a great start for August for me. :-)

% of portfolio in the market - 60%

% in cash - 40%

Year to date return - 52%