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Miko's Blog for April 2011

April 28, 2011 (9:00 p.m.)

The market did finally correct this week as expected. Interestingly, despite the weakness of the market in the last two days, foreign funds were still heavy buyers in our market. Liquidate now and buy just before May 5?

SCC has finally become a lot stronger than DMC. Of course, big thanks to the P10.00 cash dividend declaration in SCC. I'm betting that once Deutsche Regis is finally done with his selling, we'll see SCC back to 250.00.

Character of the day - DBP-Daiwa Securities

- He bought P1 billion worth of AGI in the last two days. Should we follow him? He has a reputation of buying at the highs. Remember, AP and AGI before? To trend up, AGI needs a convincing break above 12.50.

- He force closed AEV today. PSEi ought to have been down by just 20++ points but, because of his P2.00 sell down in AEV, PSEi went down by 42 points by the close.

- He is the top buyer of DMC in the last two days. While I may not follow him in AGI, DMC looks tempting to me at these levels.

April 26, 2011 (9:00 p.m.)

I wonder if today's correction has got something to do with SMC's 2PO. If this is true, then, we'll probably have dull trading this whole week.

CYBR finally began climbing today. I believe the worst is over for that one. I got quite surprised though with PCOR. Maybe some people are thinking that RSA might also pull a big surprise on PCOR's 2PO price. SMC though is a lot different from PCOR. While SMC may be quite speculative, PCOR is not.

The mining stocks have begun to correct today as Gold may have already encountered resistance at the psychological 1500 level. LC dropped by more than 10% and may have already formed a medium-term peak at 0.68.

One of the top gainers of the day was my "former ex", ACR. There will be a special stockholders' meeting tomorrow. Maybe some good news in the offing.

April 25, 2011 (6:30 p.m.)

And the bull-run of 2011 continues...

To the surprise of everyone, SMC priced its 2PO at 110.00. At 150.00, I would think twice at buying SMC but at 110.00, I think it's a "no-brainer buy". The problem is how to get the shares. They said that they will prioritize the allocation to those who got stuck at higher prices. If most people are stuck at 160.00, then, average cost of people will be at the 135.00 level. This will be hard pressed to go back to 150.00, in my opinion. For those who have SMC at higher prices, I suggest that you demand from your broker your share of the allocation.

Despite the general market continuing to go higher, the market is still continuing to trade within this slow upward dragging trend. I wonder if we will ever be like the bull market a few months ago. Oh well, no complaints. At least, there are still opportunities to make money.

April 19, 2011 (10:30 p.m.)

After climbing for the last four days, I've been wondering when the correction would come. I have to say, I'm quite surprised that the market isn't really selling off despite the upcoming long weekend. Let's see, maybe I'm speaking too soon.

S&P downgrades US Debt? Why only now? Those guys in S&P must be behind the curve by at least 12 months.

Today is the first day in a long while the SCC was now stronger than DMC. Could it finally be time to shift from DMC to SCC?

There are currently two stocks, among the liquid ones, that are behaving exceptionally bullish right now - DMC and LC. PX is playing catch up and may also end up like these two. I bet everyone are selling these issues too early. For these issues, you sell, you buyback higher. Of course, nothing lasts forever and the party will end at some point. The challenge is to hold your position until the music finally stops. Easier said than done though.

High flyers BEL and LR finally succumbed to profit-taking. I guess there was just too much hype on those issues. But is the play really over? Some people are saying that Wealth Securities, who was the big pusher of LR, could be getting out in some of those foreign brokers. Maybe. We'll never know. I guess for now, a consolidation would be in order for these issues, at best.

Tomorrow is a very important day for all SMC holders as they will now know at what price exactly will SMC offer its shares to the public. Range has been set at P110 to P140, if I'm not mistaken.

April 18, 2011 (9:00 p.m.)

I'm back from my few days of hiatus but, with the market now entering Holy Week, I think I should have just extended my break.

Anyway, market has been pleasantly surprising. Despite Income Tax payments and the coming Holy Week, no one seems to be interested in taking a vacation from the markets as we have been up for the last four days in a row now.

I pity those who bought SMC and are stuck with their positions right now. Although the suspension can either be bullish or bearish, some people don't want to get tied up with their money in a stock for that long. Some people might actually need the money for emergency and have no way of liquidating their positions. Worse, what if SMC decides to do an offering at say, P125.00 per share? I think there is just really something wrong why the PSE should suspend an issue for whatever reason. In my opinion, the PSE should just let the market roll and let winners be winners and let losers be losers. This is the stock market. The way I see it, liquidity should be the priority. Cases like this doesn't happen to Wall Street. ( P.D. I don't have SMC ).

With Gold now approaching the 1500 level, mining has recently been in vogue once again. LC had its stockholders' meeting today. I guess the fact that prices have been climbing may indicate that good news will be announced. The bulls just better hope that the market doesn't sell on the news. MA, on the other hand, will have its stockholders' meeting tomorrow, if I'm not mistaken. With prices not moving, maybe nothing new for that one. Or, maybe, Lolo is just too busy with LC at the moment. PX broke out of its 7-month consolidation today. Back to 20.00 perhaps? I wonder when its stockholders' meeting will be. I guess no one cares about the stockholders' meeting of AT.

I got very surprised with DMC. I sold my position in this one too early. Moreover, I am very surprised with SCC. I still don't understand why DMC is now trading in a parabolic rise and SCC is falling like a rock. Unknown to many though, DMC has outperformed SCC since mid-February this year. Could it be time to be a contrarian and shift from DMC to SCC?

I just finished my 3-day seminar last Friday and below is the picture of the group. Congratulations Guys and Ladies! You are now one step closer to finding your Holy Grail!

April 12, 2011 (10:40 p.m.)

I guess with Income Tax Season right now and Holy Week just around the corner, the market is now definitely in correction mode. As of this writing, Dow is down three digits. If Dow doesn't recover up to tomorrow morning, we might even drop below the previous low of 4159. I guess not much to do for now until after Holy Week.

SMC continued to slide and is now testing its major support at 150.00. Could it be that the 2PO will even be priced below 150.00?

People trading AGI probably got surprised today when that 11.16 level gave way. Simply because placements were given at 11.16, doesn't necessarily mean that it won't go down below it. Could the stock actually have broken below its support and is now trending? 10.75 is my last line of defense.

PNB is a Wow! Very seldom do I see a stock trend up and hardly corrects even intra-day. There is just absolutely no opportunity to get in unless you bid up prices. I guess as long as no news comes out, the bulls will be safe.

RCB and PAL are trying to follow PNB's footsteps but I would tend to regard these two as just the sidekicks of PNB.

Last call for my seminar tomorrow night at Valle Verde Country. Those who are still interested to go but were not able to inform me, may just walk in if you wish. Because of my 3-day seminar starting tomorrow night, I will not be able to update my blog for now. My next blog entry will be during the weekend already.

April 12, 2011 (12:30 a.m.)

The big story of the day was SMC's collapse today. Obviously, the market is now pricing in a lower than expected offer price for its upcoming 2PO. I would be very surprised if they priced it below 150.00 though.

First, there was DGTL. Then, AGI. Now, SMC. For a bull market, the market certainly is acting quite weird with all these sudden big drops in specific issues.

Is Macquarie actually done with his selling of LR? Black Samurai wins? I wonder if it can get past that previous high at 12.18.

Weird price behavior on URC. After being very, very strong last Friday, the stock drops by almost 5% today.

Fantastic price action on PNB today. Could 70.00 be in the works already?

April 7, 2011 (10:00 p.m.)

What a u-turn in LR! Could it have formed a peak at 12.18? The Black Samurai has got his hands full with Macquarie.

LC too did a big u-turn today. Just when everybody thought it was a breakout, Lolo comes out with a big surprise.

Today's big run-up of CPM appears to have signaled the beginning of the resurgence of the basura plays. I can't wait 'til May.

AGI got a big windfall from their sale of shares the other day. The question now is, will this be good for MEG, ELI or GERI?

April 6, 2011 (9:30 p.m.)

Could yesterday be the correction already? Wow! Merry Christmas!!!

April 5, 2011 (7:00 p.m.)

Correction time!

AGI gapped down today on news that P9.7 billion worth of private placements were executed at 11.16. Some foreign funds, who bought in the private placements, must be the ones selling the stock today. Some treasury shares were sold so there may be some dilution in there. Some were secondary shares, which came from the entire position of Megaworld in AGI. This news is bearish because it's like Mr. Andrew Tan taking profits at 11.16. It would be interesting to see what would happen if the price gets to 11.16.

First, there was DGTL. Now, it is AGI. Fortunately for me, I don't trade AGI. If I see another stock that gaps down by more than 5% tomorrow, I'll just day-trade from then on.

After dropping forever, PO appears to have finally found a bottom at 3.08. What's interesting about this rally is that Angping is the one selling. Whom will you side with Angping or Mr. Villar?

April 4, 2011 (11:00 p.m.)

Once again, foreign funds were net buyers by almost P1 billion today. If they continue with this, we'll be at 4400 in no time. I think the market should pause now though as it is getting quite overheated already in the short-term. Same goes with the Dow. Sometimes though, the scarier it is, the more bullish it becomes. I'm glad that April is beginning to look like a complete reversal of the last two months. Who would have thought that the TEL-DGTL deal would trigger the bull market?! The problem now is, how to find the fastest horse. :-)

April 2, 2011 (8:30 p.m.)

Yesterday, some people were thinking that the huge foreign buying was simply because of window-dressing at the end of the quarter but with foreign funds buying almost another P1 billion last Friday, this definitely is no longer just window-dressing. Could we be looking at another buying spree by the foreign funds in the next couple of weeks? As I have been observing in the last few years, most of these foreign funds are trend-followers, thus, they will not buy aggressively unless the market trends up. Last Thursday, the market broke above its resistance at 4000, thus, ending the four to five month downtrend of the market. The rally was across the board and was accompanied by relatively big volume.

This period of April to June should offer those who lost money in the last couple of months to recuperate your losses. If you have regained the money that you lost already by now, then, you are doing a pretty good job on your portfolio.