Miko's Blog for Apr 2010

The Dow was up by 122 points and what did our market do? It was down by 6 points. If you've noticed, everytime the Dow goes up by 3 digits, our market goes down or it hardly moves as people treat it as a signal to take profits. I'm not really worried though because the funds seem to be rotating. I think it's pretty obvious where the funds are going next - Properties!

Congratulations to all those who are holding GSMI or RFM. Definitely, something special going on with those two.

After conditioning the day-traders in ABA and MRC in the last couple of days, did he finally catch them today?

Both AT and PX broke below their support levels today. Could this spell the end of the mining sector? I pity all those who got caught in CPM in this last round. There's only one adjective to describe it - ruthless!

By the way, I don't think JAP will show himself tonight.

Apr 29, 2010

Not much I can say with this market except that the high ones continue to be strong and low ones continue to be weak. I pity all those who have been investing in the mining sector for the last three months as they have not participated at all in this bull market. In fact, if PX breaks down below 12.50, they might even lose money. Will the month of May be a turning point for the people? A lot are hoping and praying that the sector starts to climb before the correction comes in.

Apr 28, 2010

Sorry, was kinda lazy to write something in my blog yesterday.

Anyway, the Dow collapsed last night on the back of a credit downgrade by S&P on Greece and Portugal. The big question now is, is this a chance to buy, or, is this a time to panic?

A big gathering of traders and market makers will be held on Friday in cooperation with my friends at Absolute Traders, Trader's Pizza and Jap's very own Market Mirror. Will JAP attend this meeting while all his stocks are down, or, will he do something to appease the flock?

Apr 26, 2010

PCOR was one of the highlights in today's trading. Maybe SMC's option to buy PCOR will finally push thru. Rumor has it that it will be at P6.85.

I wonder what's with GSMI and PIP. Obviously, the bulls are anticipating good news with these two issues as well.

So far, the blues are still pushing this market higher but slowly some of the basuras are starting to move.

By the way, I'd like to thank Trader's Pizza for a wonderful evening last Friday. Congratulations on your 3rd year anniversary!

Apr 24, 2010

I was pleasantly surprised with my AC yesterday. I bought it at 315.00 and was able to sell near 350.00 yesterday. I don't think I ever remember a time when I made 10% in AC in just three days' time.

Another stock which made my weekend yesterday was ORE, which I was able to sell at 1.92 yesterday. I tried selling it higher but the bids, roughly 11 million shares per fluc, mysteriously just disappear everytime the asking price gets bigger. A friend of mine told me yesterday, they were "padding" 11 million shares per fluc because 11000000 is symbolic to Angping.

The challenge now is not just to make money. The challenge now is to find the fastest horse. :-)

Apr 22, 2010

The market just hasn't changed since a few weeks ago. The high ones are still strong are still making new highs and the low ones are still weak and are still not moving. Why is the market this way? It's because everybody is selling the high ones and are buying the low ones. :-)

Of course, not all the "low ones" are still stuck at the lows. ORE is one of those that was able to rise from the grave. Who ever said, "anything but JAP"?!

If you remember, I have been saying, Villar will win the elections if VLL is able to break above the 2.16 level. If I just base it on the movement of VLL in the last few days, it would appear that Noynoy has already won the elections.

Apr 21, 2010

V-Reversal!!!

Apr 20, 2010

Dow was up 73 points last night and what did our market do? It was down by 56 points or almost 2% by the close. Obviously, something is now very wrong with this market. Maybe election jitters perhaps? It's so tempting to buy because everything is quite low already but, usually, when it's so easy to buy low, it usually is not yet the time to buy.

CPM was quite a bummer. It looked quite strong throughout the day and looked unaffected by the panic in the market. In the end, it too gave way to profit-taking.

Apr 19, 2010

The correction in world equities has finally begun on the back of news that the SEC had charged Goldman Sachs of fraud. For those who don't understand what the SEC is charging Goldman Sachs of, it's as if a broker sold 2 million shares of a certain stock that he knows will go down. The broker only had 1 million shares, thus, he was short of another 1 million shares. When all hell broke lose and the stock went down, they covered their 1 million shares. It is estimated that Goldman Sachs made $1 billion in that transaction at the expense of two European banks. I'm betting my ass that this won't be the first bank that will be charged.

CPM is currently in another planet right now.

Apr 16, 2010

Did the market peak already yesterday or could this just be another short-term correction before the uptrend resumes? For the last couple of weeks, I was quite certain that the downswings were just nothing more than just short-term corrections. This time, I'm just no longer quite sure. If the majority of people thinks that the market has already peaked, then, this may just be a short-term correction. But if the majority of people thinks that this correction is an opportunity to buy the market low, then, the market will most likely continue to drop lower.

Another question bugging my mind right now is, won't the speculative issues move in this run? Despite the strength of commodity prices worldwide, the mining stocks still hasn't moved yet up to now. Is it possible that they won't move in this so called bull market? If there are no one buying these issues right now, then, these stocks will most likely go up. But if there are a lot of people positioning in these stocks right now, then, these stocks has the potential to drop lower.

Such are the ironies of the market. :-)

Apr 15, 2010

Despite the Dow climbing by 103 points last night, the PSEi dropped by 20 points today. This could only mean one thing - everyone pays their taxes on the last day (hahaha). If you'll notice, it's not only our market that is acting strange, some Asian bourses are also down today. I have a term for this market - a Cowardly Bull. Based on the way the market behaved today, I think the market may have already formed a short-term peak. I told my friend the other day, the market will peak when the most bulok stock in the whole market starts to climb. How much did OM climb today?

For the last couple of days, I've been expecting the Power sector to climb next. While I was right on AP and AEV, could I have made a mistake in EDC and FGEN?

I paid a fortune in income taxes today. I know a lot of people who don't even file their ITRs at all because, they reason out, those thieves in government are going to pocket it anyway. Yes, but, I would reason out, if everybody thinks this way, then, the Philippines will forever be this way - poor and miserable. Kunsensya na nila yan kung nanakawin nila o hinde. At least, I've done my part in helping society and our fellow countrymen. For those who don't pay the right taxes, you have absolutely no right of complaining about the state of this country.

Apr 14, 2010

Everyday, more and more third-line issues are beginning to join the party like APC today. I really have high respects to the Black Samurai. Just when nobody was looking, APC was pushed up by 20%. If you look at the buyers and sellers of the day, I would guess that no one was able to buy except for the insiders. Everybody seems to have just day-traded.

Properties seems to have peaked in the short-term today.

I'm still waiting for the Power play, which was already started by the Aboitiz group yesterday.

I don't know if you noticed but the small banks are suddenly going wild. First, there was PNB, then, RCB, then, SECB. Care to make a guess what could be next?

Apr 13, 2010

I don't know if you noticed but the market has now shifted from the blue chip stocks to the second-line issues. There are a few speculative issues that have begun to move but the majority of the market is now concentrated on the second-liners. From a cyclical point of view, this simply tells me that we are now half-way through the bull cycle, which started last early February. For those who are already positioned in the JAPs, the Lolos, the Chuckys, etc., you'll probably have to wait a little bit more but, don't worry, it won't be long now.

The property play is obviously "in" right now but the power play had only just begun once again today.

The Dow is stalling a bit right now. Could this be the start of correction or is it just consolidating before it continues to climb higher?

Apr 12, 2010

Just as I expected, you buy before a long weekend and you'll end up making money.

The "in" thing right now is the property sector with MEG and FLI being the main plays. From the way I see it, the blue chip stocks are now near their highs already and it is now the second-liners like MEG and FLI that are surging upwards. I think we'll continue to see some second-liners be in play in the next few days. Watch "Power". I think they are good to go once again.

This "bull market" is of a different kind. It's a bull that runs like a turtle. The dilemma right now is, to make money, you need to buy and hold but do we still buy and hold at 3300?

No way will I touch the high-flyers like DMC, PNB and URC anymore. They may continue to go up but they can have it.

Apr 8, 2010

The last time we had a long weekend, the market sold off on the day before holidays, then, went on to surge strongly the following week. Could it be the same this time around?

There will be one last hurdle for the bulls - April 15.

I see quite a number of 3rd line issues like LIHC that are starting to move already. The laggards of this market are the mining issues like the JAP stocks and the Lolo stocks. Could this be an opportunity to buy them low or should one just stay away from these laggards and just concentrate on what's strong? So far, those who have been following the trend are getting rewarded but, of course, at some point, those trends will end and money will have to flow somewhere else.

Chucky has done it again with LIHC. The day-traders yesterday thought that they were able to pull a fast one on Chucky when they sold their positions at 7.00 yesterday. Lo and behold, Chucky was actually catching the sellers because he wanted to make the price go up. In the end, Chucky always win! :-)

Apr 7, 2010

The market has closed the day at a new 52-week high once again. A lot of people are asking me, are we in a bull market already? My answer is, we have been in a bull market since 14 months ago. I think the more appropriate question should be, are we near a peak? While the market is certainly nowhere near its lows anymore, I don't think it is near a peak yet. Peaks are usually seen when the blues are no longer climbing up and the 3rd liners begin to go wild. It is also often seen when there are a lot of IPOs being offered already. Obviously, we haven't seen both those requirements yet. Lastly, I don't think I've ever seen the market peak at this time of the year. In times like these, you just got to make the most out of it for, when the bear shows its ugly head once again, losses will not optional, it will be the rule. For the meantime, let's all enjoy this bull market. From the way I see it, the best has yet to come! :-)

Apr 6, 2010

Once again, our very own PSEi was the top gainer in the entire region today. What could have triggered this scenario? Foreign funds were net buyers by P650 million today. The question is, is the market thinking logically? It's funny when you look back because when the market was trading at 2000, the top sellers during that time were foreign funds. Now at 3250, they are buying back. Just follow the flow Tsupiteros but I don't think you'd like to fall in love at current levels.

The tough decision for Tsupiteros right now is, do you follow the flow and continue to buy the high-flyers, which are very high already but continues to go higher, or, do you start shifting to the 3rd line issues that aren't moving but are currently trading at their lows? I personally am no longer playing the big caps, which have been the high-flyers in the last couple of weeks so, I have to admit, I wasn't too ecstatic today. Of the few issues, which I was holding, that flew, I sold. No way will I be a buyer today with the market up by 66 points.

Apr 5, 2010

In a newsclip in the Philippine Daily Inquirer today, it is reported that BDO and AUB are in talks to acquire Asiatrust Bank. The news sent the stock flying towards its ceiling price for the day but were not able to sustain its gains by the day strong. ASIA gave out a clarification to the PSE stating that it is not true. I'm happy to have made P1.00 per share for that stock today. :-)

In another news, it was rumored that FG (and possibly the whole administration) is now siding with Manny Villar. The news sent VLL and PO dropping a bit today because anything that gets in contact with GMA is perceived to be bad news. However, if you really think about it, would you side with the popular vote, or, would you side with who has the funds and the machinery? I'm not really pro-Villar (or pro-Noynoy) but I would think that the news is actually more bullish than bearish to VLL and PO.

News came out last week that the Cebu Pacific IPO has been deferred. Had this IPO occurred 10 years ago, these people may have made a killing and the pitiful public would have probably ended up buying at the highs. Sorry Mr. Gokongwei, we live in a different world nowadays. Thank God for the internet!

Something weird is going on with the relationship of the Dollar to the Equity markets. Last year, the Dollar and the Equity markets dropped hand in hand with each other. Starting last December, the Dollar started to climb, yet, Equity markets continued to climb. In the last few days, the Dollar weakened once again, yet, equities still continued to climb. Commodities, on the other hand, hardly dropped when the Dollar rallied but is now surging upwards since the Dollar is dropping. What do all of this tell us? Commodities are following the Equity markets more than the Dollar. I guess it really doesn't matter if the currency of which you buy commodities becomes expensive, what really matters is if there will be demand for commodities in the future as evidenced by a recovering economy.

The PSEi has already passed its first test - the "Huli Week". The last test that it will have to pass is Apr 15 - Tax Season. If the market is able to pass this last test without collapsing, then, we may be good to go. :-)