Miko's Blog for Apr 2009

I day-traded AGI today but I only made one fluctuation. I loaded up on just one stock today - the strongest one in the market. It seems like property is still in vogue! :-)

Despite two days that the Dow Futures were down by more than a hundred points and despite everybody saying that this 6 week rally is losing steam, the Dow just doesn't want to go down. Could we be setting up for an 'unexpected' rally in May? Remember, this week is pivotal!

% of portfolio in the market - 50%

% in cash - 50%

Year to date return - 17%

Apr 28, 2009

I was expecting a strong performance from the property sector today but, instead, I was surprised when quite the opposite happened. I made money in FLI yesterday and broke even in VLL. I bought MEG twice at 0.66 last Friday. I sold half yesterday at 0.70 and I was able to buy it back at 0.68. It seemed to me that I was doing the right thing until today, when I ended up selling at 0.66 and 0.67. So, all in all, I still made 2% in the portfolio from all those transactions. For me, it was worth it.

I guess the market is still reacting from that news on the Swine Flu outbreak. It is currently testing support right now. It ought to hold above current levels already, or else, we might have a deeper than expected correction.

I'm almost totally liquid again. The last two times I was almost totally liquid, the market formed a bottom. Let's see if I become the buy signal again (hahaha).

% of portfolio in the market - 5%

% in cash - 95%

Year to date return - 17%

Apr 27, 2009

I took profits from most of my property issues today, except for one, which I sold at the highs and was able to buy it back at its lows.

Market is so "iffy" right now. I think this week will be pivotal.

% of portfolio in the market - 30%

% in cash - 70%

Year to date return - 17%

Apr 24, 2009

I feel quite embarrassed for giving a "sell" recommendation in the market. Obviously, based on the behavior of the market today, it was anything but a "sell". I knew I already made a mistake when I woke up this morning and saw that the Dow was up so I loaded up again by buying tons of property issues. If you can't beat them (bulls), join them!

The PSEi is really a lot stronger than the Dow right now. As of the close of the market today, it seems like it is now ready to trend up towards the 2300 level. Let's just hope the Dow doesn't spoil the party.

% of portfolio in the market - 60%

% in cash - 40%

Year to date return - 15%

Apr 23, 2009

I didn't add anything to my portfolio today. I just day-traded PIP for some coffee money.

I'm ready for tonight's crash!!! hehe

% of portfolio in the market - 10%

% in cash - 90%

Year to date return - 15%

Apr 22, 2009

I sold all my FGEN with a two fluctuation loss. I broke one of my cardinal rules by buying that stock - follow the trend. The market punished me for not following that rule. I was thinking in the last few days that the market would shift from the banks and properties to FGEN or FPH because these two stocks are the only big caps left that are currently trading at their lows. Anticipating the shift was a mistake. Although it may actually happen, I won't be able to bear the volatility if prices go lower than where it dropped today.

It's a good thing I was able to cover my losses in FGEN with TBGI, which I was able to make 10% today. TBGI was the high-flyer that I bought yesterday.

I also sold my minuscule position in TUNA at cost. There doesn't seem to me anything happening there.

Damn that MUSX! It's such a challenge to trade those "Chucky stocks".

I'm almost liquid right now except for a couple of basura stocks.

For the last few days, I noticed that I have been selling a couple of issues at cost. It looks like the market will move sideways for now. Better hope though that the Dow doesn't drop big tonight. If it does, we may be looking at a totally different animal already - a Bear!

% of portfolio in the market - 10%

% in cash - 90%

Year to date return - 15%

Apr 21, 2009

Finally, the correction that I have been waiting for has arrived!

I didn't move in most of my existing positions today except for MUSX, which. I lost by one fluctuation. I tried to day-trade MWC but I ended up selling at the my cost. I was able to day-trade EEI. I made some coffee money there.

The stock that I bought yesterday, which I thought could go up if the Dow dropped - APX - did not move so I just sold it as well at cost. My "counter-cyclical stock" was also affected today but not as much as the properties or the banks. I'm still not buying those sectors right now.

I bought a minuscule position in a basura stock today in exchange for my MUSX. I also bought one of the high-flyers. I believe something is definitely brewing in that one.

It was extremely difficult to day-trade today. I have to admit, I didn't expect the market to be as weak as it was today. Anyway, despite knowing that the Dow was going to drop, I still lost 1% in my portfolio today (hahaha).

% of portfolio in the market - 30%

% in cash - 70%

Year to date return - 15%

Apr 20, 2009

I bought some counter-cyclical stocks today - stocks that could weather the storm even if the Dow goes down. I even bought a stock that could specifically go up if the Dow goes down.

More than a month ago, I mentioned in my blog to start buying banks/properties and sell Lopez. Could it be time to start switching back to Lopez?

I expect the Dow to fall big time one of these days this week.

% of portfolio in the market - 30%

% in cash - 70%

Year to date return - 16%

Apr 17, 2009

I sold all my EDC today for some coffee money. I didn't buy anything today except for day-trading BPC.

The market is now going wild and I have hardly any positions anymore. I feel like being a contrarian already. I think the public, who is usually always wrong, has come into the market already today and everybody is now "sure" that the market is headed towards 2300. All the banks and the properties are now overbought and are testing or approaching their major resistances already.

Furthermore, although the Dow climbed up again last night, I really feel there is something fishy in that market. Something just isn't right, in my opinion. I'll be very depressed if the Dow goes up by 300 points tonight! (hahaha)

% of portfolio in the market - 10%

% in cash - 90%

Year to date return - 16%

Apr 16, 2009

I'm already regretting what I sold yesterday. What can I say? I'm only human. Notice that even professionals like me sometimes get caught into selling at the lows at times. I guess its simply the nature of the markets. The markets were really designed for people to lose money.

Although despite the upswing of Wall Street last night, somehow, I feel something's not right...hmmm...

I am happy to have taken profits with my BRN today.

FGEN was quite weird. It was a lot stronger than EDC yesterday but was extremely weak compared with it today. I ended up cutting losses on this one and I shifted everything to the other one.

I bought a little bit of Chucky stocks today.

PSEi formed another higher low again today. Could this be the start of the march going towards 2300? Cross your fingers Tsupiteros! We still have a long way to go.

% of portfolio in the market - 40%

% in cash - 60%

Year to date return - 15%

Apr 15, 2009

Although I did make money today, I wasn't at all happy with my trading today.

When I saw that the Dow was not able to break above 8100 last night, I think I may have panicked a bit today. I also was not able to buy some stocks that I think I should have bought. What I did was, I used my head in trading and not my instinct. To be objective about it, I think I may have prematurely sold some of my existing positions.

MEG was the laggard in my portfolio so I sold my remaining shares at the open (0.59), which was actually my cost. I sold my PNB at cost too at 14.25 (wahhh!). I sold my VLL for a small profit. And, finally, I sold all my LIHC for a 20% gain.

Finally, my long-term "ipit" (approx. 2 weeks) has finally started to show signs of life.

I gambled a little bit of FGEN at the close. If I'm not mistaken, EDC is now close to finally finding a bottom.

I'm a bit worried about the Dow right now. I don't know if I'm imagining things or if it's a real worry. Anyway, I've reduced my positions to a level wherein I wouldn't bother even if I saw the Dow drop by 300 points tonight.

% of portfolio in the market - 30%

% in cash - 70%

Year to date return - 13%

Apr 14, 2009

It was a luckluster day today but I still was able to do a little bit of shopping. I bought my favorite bank today and a minuscule position in a Villar stock. I was also able to day-trade BPC. No, I didn't touch EDC today.

By the way, I forgot to mention yesterday that I was able to buy 25k shares of LIHC yesterday at 2.12. Sometimes, those minuscule positions can certainly be worth the effort. :-)

I'm betting right now that most people are waiting for prices to drop before they buy. If this indeed is the psychology of the market right now, prices will no longer drop.

% of portfolio in the market - 45%

% in cash - 55%

Year to date return - 13%

Apr 13, 2009

What a disappointing day today as EDC spoils the party in the PSE. While I knew EDC was bound to sell on the news anytime now, I certainly did not expect that kind of news to be the one to break it. I tried to day-trade the stock today by buying at 3.90. I ended up selling it at the same price. I wonder how Wealth is going to get out of this one. If Marubeni did call off the deal on this one, Wilson is dead!

I sold all my AT today for an almost 20% gain. I sold all my SCC today because I don't want to be caught in the selling of this one either tomorrow or on the ex-date. I also was able to sell the majority of my MEG for some coffee money but I left some as souvenir (haha).

Despite today's bloodbath, I still think this market is already trending up.

% of portfolio in the market - 35%

% in cash - 65%

Year to date return - 13%

Apr 8, 2009

I was able to day-trade PNB today. The PNB that I bought yesterday, I sold also today. Yeah, I think I sold too early again. Damn, it's really a no-selling market!

I added more to my Andrew Tan position today.

Can you just imagine the feeling of all those who are waiting to buy at lower levels when they saw the Dow drop by 186 points last night and the Dow Futures down by 90 points the whole morning, yet, the PSEi still climbed up by 20 points?!! If I were in their shoes, I would now be in a state of panic already. Remember, a lot of people will still enter the market after they come back from their vacations next week. The problem for these people will be, by the time the PSEi opens next week, the Dow would have finished with its correction already. See you all at 2200!!!

% of portfolio in the market - 75%

% in cash - 25%

Year to date return - 12%

Apr 7, 2009

I sold all my FGEN today at cost because it is no longer following EDC's footsteps. I know, I should have bought EDC instead. That will probably be the last time I'm going to buy any Lopez stock for some time. I don't want to buy EDC anymore because it is very near its "target" already.

I added more Andrew Tan stocks today and I was able to join to fun in PNB. I also bought a minuscule position in SCC.

By the way, remember my embarrassing purchase that I was talking about last week? That was AT. :-)

Notice that, in a bull market, it is the public who makes more money than the professionals. Why? Because in a bull market, the public buys high and holds. The professionals, on the other hand, wait for prices to drop before they buy. The problem is, they sometimes get left out because prices no longer drops. Furthermore, the professionals tend to sell early not knowing that in bull markets, targets tend to get exceeded to the upside. So, how do you play this market? Just follow the public!!!

% of portfolio in the market - 75%

% in cash - 25%

Year to date return - 11%

Apr 3, 2009

I bought more BRN today. I think this is bottoming-out already and could very well climb back up toward the 4.00 level in the next several weeks. I bought one of the Lopez stocks today.

With regards to my embarrassing buy yesterday, it ended up very well as it climbed a lot higher than my acquisition cost. If yesterday I bought at the highs of that stock, today, I bought a little bit more at its lows. I'm still not telling what it is for now (hehe).

My Andrew Tan stock was super yummy today but I'm trying very, very hard not to eat it, if you know what I'm mean. The challenge now is to control your appetite. :-)

The market looks good to go. I am expecting this rally to last until May or even June. I expect the Dow to climb towards the 8500 to 9000 levels. At this point, I am no longer selling anything. If I'm not mistaken, this is now a buy and hold market!

% of portfolio in the market - 75%

% in cash - 25%

Year to date return - 9%

Apr 2, 2009

It's official! Everytime I have almost no positions, the market starts to bottom-out (hahaha).

Since I didn't have any positions, I embarrassingly chased a stock today at the open. Of course, I ended up buying at the highs. I decided to just hold it cause I think it's bottoming out anyway. I feel embarrassed to share what it is so I'll just let you know in the next few days what happens.

I bought back the BRN that I sold yesterday. It's a good thing I was able to buy it at the same price as where I sold it.

I also bought an Andrew Tan stock today.

The market is a bit weird cause it didn't follow Wall Street this morning. I guess some are thinking of vacation already next week. I think that's good. Go think about your vacation so that I could still buy low. Nobody wants to buy? I'm buying!!!

I believe the Dow has bottomed-out in the short-term already. Do I hear 8500 coming?!

% of portfolio in the market - 35%

% in cash - 65%

Year to date return - 9%

Apr 1, 2009

I sold all my remaining positions today. I took a one fluc hit in EDC. I took a one fluc hit in BRN. I also sold my minuscule positions in some of the basuras. Made money in some, lost one or two flucs in some. I didn't buy anything today cause I just didn't see anything strong anymore. I'm sure glad I didn't play PAX today! I'm almost completely liquid. I think the market will just be sideways to down between now and until next week. After that, let's see.

My portfolio is currently up by 9% year to date. Most of those gains I only made last week. :-)

% of portfolio in the market - 5%

% in cash - 95%

Year to date return - 9%